The Mobility of Elderly Residents Living in Suburban Territories

Abstract

Many authors have observed die elders' unanimous aspirations to age in place. Such residential aspirations echo theoretical concepts such as “environmental-fit.” Aging residents adapt to their residential environment according to their autonomy level, their financial and social resources, as well as the meanings they invest in both residential situations and lifestyle (Lord, 2004; Wagnild, 2001). Therefore, the suburbs constitute a challenge for aging residents' intentions to remain in their home for as long as possible. These low-density environments encourage car dependency for almost every daily activity. In that regard, many studies have investigated the daily mobility patterns of elders living in such areas. However, most of them have focused on aspects linked to transportation and driving security (Rosenbloom, 2003). In this context, with a socio-anthropological (in-depth interviews) method, the elders' daily mobility is explored in a complex layering of issues. Two interdisciplinary qualitative researches on the daily and residential mobility of elderly suburbanites have been used: a group living in Quebec City's Post-War suburbs in Canada (n = 56) and another in Marseille's periurban suburbs in France (n = 36). The results show that we must investigate beyond the elders' “emotional attachment”to their “home” in order to explain the everyday tensions underlying accessibility and daily mobility. Aging in a single-family house is more than a deliberate choice. Moving away from one's neighborhood is considered a last resort alternative by the majority. Instead, the elderly from both milieus will adapt their lifestyles to the environment by redesigning their daily activities and their mobility practices in order to age in place. Therefore, adapting daily mobility practices to social interactions and social representations all become a sine qua nonecondition.     

基于“循环经济5R理论”的汽车循环利用物流模型探讨

近年来,中国汽车保有量急剧增加,有相当数量的汽车进入“老年期”,急需规范管理、利用、回收汽车的渠道。然而,目前我国没有相应标准和规范,废旧汽车回收利用还没有引起全社会足够的关注和重视。文章结合我国汽车产业发展现状和回收废弃物物流的相关理论,在循环经济5R原则的指导下,通过优化汽车循环利用物流模型而提高资源的再利用率、减少原材料和能源的浪费,构建了汽车循环利用物流模型及其信息系统模型,并提出该模型实施的保障措施。     

汽车行业渠道激励、满意、绩效关系的实证研究

在文献研究的基础上构建了渠道激励-渠道满意-渠道绩效关系模型,并以146家汽车经销商为实证样本,采用因子分析、回归分析检验了模型的假设关系.研究发现:渠道激励不能直接影响渠道绩效,但可以通过渠道满意而间接影响渠道绩效;渠道满意既直接影响渠道绩效,也是渠道激励和渠道绩效发挥作用的中间环节.     

Bursts and heavy tails of execution time in business processes

This paper investigates the phenomena and effects of heavy tails of execution time in business processes. We approached the heavy tails as a particular variation of business process execution, and analysed them from empirical data of its execution time. The features and possible causes of the heavy tails were investigated. A workflow simulation was conducted to simulate the heavy tails, in order to evaluate quantitatively their effects to business process performance. The simulation outcomes demonstrate that (1) even a heavy-tailed activity in a business process can cause large variation of end-to-end execution times of the process and (2) there are significant prediction gaps resulted by different assumptions of execution times between an exponential distribution and a heavy-tailed distribution.     

“双积分”政策下汽车制造商竞争定价与减排策略研究

“双积分”政策的实施对汽车制造商的定价决策产生了重要影响。考虑卖方由同时生产燃油车和新能源汽车的制造商1和仅生产新能源汽车的制造商2组成,在消费者低碳偏好和价格竞争影响下分别针对制造商1对燃油车采取和不采取节能减排措施的情况,研究“双积分”政策下汽车制造商的定价策略和减排决策,探讨新能源汽车积分值和积分比例要求对政府和企业决策的作用效果。进一步,通过对不同情形的结果进行分析,得到“双积分”政策的出台、消费者低碳偏好及制造商采取节能减排措施对制造商定价和减排决策带来的变化,并通过算例分析验证了结论。研究结果表明：(1)“双积分”政策可以降低新能源汽车的价格,提高新能源汽车制造商的利润,促进燃油车主动减排。(2)当新能源汽车的需求价格弹性系数和需求交叉价格弹性系数处于较高水平时,政府要制定较高的每台新能源汽车积分值。(3)燃油车的油耗水平存在一个环境属性标准,当油耗水平低于一定值时,随着新能源汽车积分比例要求的不断增大,制造商1选择提高燃油车价格。(4)消费者低碳偏好是提高燃油车减排水平的重要因素,政府可以对减排技术先进的燃油车制造商进行低油耗认证,提高消费者低油耗燃油车需求,激励燃油车制造商积极减排。     

技术创新视角下中国汽车产业发展路径的选择

中国汽车产业发展迅速,但是仍存在很多问题必须解决,如技术依赖、缺乏自主创新能力等。结合世界汽车产业三次技术领导权转移,通过对技术创新与技术演进曲线的关系分析,认为中国汽车产业发展的战略重点应是以中低档汽车技术为发展起点,以此蓄积自主创新能力,培育自主创新体系及其运行机制;同时通过低端突破性创新或新市场突破性创新,走出有中国特色的技术路径。其中的关键路径选择可概括为：在国际合作中提高自主学习能力,并通过技术、品牌、人才、产品战略的实施,打造适合大众需要的自有品牌车。     

浅析我国汽车产业的自主品牌

汽车产业是国家工业水平的代表性产业,要适应国际竞争就必须发展自主品牌.纵观我国汽车自主品牌的发展,政策引导与支持力度不够,研发机构效率较低,自主品牌缺乏国际竞争力,研发经费与人才不足,汽车零部件发展滞后等问题制约了我国自主品牌发展.文中针对出现的问题提出了相应整改措施,如建立和完善创新环境;推动我国汽车产业结构调整;提高自主创新能力,注重研发人才的培养;发展零部件产业.     

中国汽车制造业国际竞争力研究

中国汽车制造业的快速发展与国际化步伐密切相关,特别是加入WTO以后,更是不可避免地融入到全球化发展进程中。研究我国汽车制造业的国际竞争力水平是十分必要的,因其在制定产业国际化战略中具有重要的作用。通过比较研究认为,中国汽车制造业国际竞争力仍比较弱,应进一步提高行业的市场集中度,加强技术创新投入,提高出口市场占有率,从而提升中国汽车制造业国际竞争力水平。     

Pitfalls in using Weibull tailed distributions

By assuming that the underlying distribution belongs to the domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution, one can extrapolate the data to a far tail region so that a rare event can be predicted. However, when the distribution is in the domain of attraction of a Gumbel distribution, the extrapolation is quite limited generally in comparison with a heavy tailed distribution. In view of this drawback, a Weibull tailed distribution has been studied recently. Some methods for choosing the sample fraction in estimating the Weibull tail coefficient and some bias reduction estimators have been proposed in the literature. In this paper, we show that the theoretical optimal sample fraction does not exist and a bias reduction estimator does not always produce a smaller mean squared error than a biased estimator. These are different from using a heavy tailed distribution. Further we propose a refined class of Weibull tailed distributions which are more useful in estimating high quantiles and extreme tail probabilities.     

中国汽车行业对外合资合作策略实施的分析研究

以中国汽车行业实行对外合资合作为研究对象 ,从分析我国汽车行业对外合资合作的现状以及国外发展汽车工业合资合作的经验和当今世界汽车工业的发展趋势入手 ,重点分析了从 1978年改革开放以来 ,我国汽车行业实行对外合资合作的情况。在分析国内主要的、有代表性的合资项目的基础上 ,总结了我国汽车行业对外合资合作的特点以及我国汽车行业实行对外合资合作对汽车工业产生的促进作用和我国汽车行业在对外合资合作中还存在的问题。最后 ,对我国汽车行业实行对外合资合作提出了建议和对策。