<史记>"孔子生年"索源

自异载孔子生年之《史记》问世,二千余年孔诞之争不决;然,《史记》“鲁襄公二十二年”者,何所据源,诚当考辨析明之。考《世本》载记孔子生年说,纯系子虚乌有。至今所见文献,可为《史记》“孔子生年”载记之源者,惟公、谷二传《春秋》耳;不过司马迁之误解《春秋》历纪,乃助后世曲纪孔子生辰千有余年矣．     

Uncertainty and the Second Space: Modern Birth Timing and the Dilemma of Education

This paper focuses on the relationship between experiential and statistical uncertainties in the timing of births in Cameroon (Central Africa). Most theories of fertility level and change emphasize the emergence of parity-specific control, treating desired family size as both central, and stable across the life course. By contrast, this paper argues for a theory of reproduction that emphasizes process, social context, and contingency. The paper concentrates on the second birth interval, showing that it is longer and more variable among educated than among uneducated women. The paper argues that this difference is due to the specific forms of uncertainty associated with education in contemporary Cameroon.     

教育回归生命本原--对生育文化及其所承载教育价值的思考

在传统教育体系中,生育文化与教育的关联历来不被人重视,生育文化常常被认为是与教育相关不大或毫无相关的领域,从教育的视角对生育文化问题的关注较少.但是在儿童个体生命成长过程中,生育文化的影响和重要的教育价值是不容忽视的.研究和探讨教育人类学视野中的生育文化及其研究价值,希望能够对关注教育、关注文化的教育价值、关注除学校以外更大教育空间的人们提供一个看待教育的新的视角,从而对教育发展有一定启示.     

翻译认知：假设和期待与翻译

朗加克(Langacker)认为理解语言不是被动的过程,而是主动的过程。根据他的这种观点,意象意义之一的"假使和期待"在翻译中就存在模糊性。意象意义指的是说话人在心智上以不同方式构建所思考场景的能力。因此,我们的理论基础是认知语法,不是形式语义学,这就使得它的论点与以往类似的文章有所不同。以往翻译理论研究多以形式语义学作理论指导,研究句子的真值条件和客观意义,而我们研究的是句子的主观意义。     

On an application of the diffusion approximation of the generalized birth and death process for stochastic population projection

Assuming that both birth and death rates are density and time dependent, a diffusion approximation of the generalized birth and death process has been considered in this paper to obtain a suitable stochastic population model describing the population size and its moments. A simple method of estimating the parameters of the model Is discussed. The predictions of the expected size of the population, and the variance are made and compared with the corresponding census figures as well as with another deterministic projection series made for the corresponding period.     

英雄的当代回归——论《亮剑》走红的原因

《亮剑》这部电视连续剧在央视播出以来,引起观众的强烈反响。各省市电视台也不甘落后纷纷播出,收视率依然居高不下。"李云龙"、"亮剑"等词语成为人们街谈巷议中重现率极高的几个词之一,《亮剑》这部电视剧走红的原因很复杂,既有文学本身的因素也有非文学的因素。笔者想着重谈谈其走红的各种原因来探讨决定文学创作的复杂因素。     

中国儿童出生登记制度变迁研究

分析新中国成立以来中国儿童出生登记的制度变迁,结果表明,中国儿童出生登记存在强制性变迁和诱致性变迁,在不同的时期,二者发挥的力量不一样,这取决于当时的经济、政治、社会等因素,以及政府集权的程度;其次,出生登记制度作为一项重要而又不独立的制度,必然受到诸多因素的影响。     

Characterizations based on conditional expectations

For given real functionsg andh, first we give necessary and sufficient conditions such that there exists a random variableX satisfying thatE(g(X)|X≥y)=h(y)r _x (y),∀y ∈ C _x , whereC _x andT _X are the support and the failure rate function ofX, respectively. These extend the results of Ruiz and Navarro (1994) and Ghitany et al. (1995). Next we investigate necessary and sufficient conditions such thath(y)=E(g(X)|X≥y), for a given functionh. Support for this research was provided in part by the National Science Council of the Republic of China, Grant No. NSC 86-2115-M-110-014 and NSC 88-2118-M-110-001     

Bayesian prediction of waiting times in stochastic models

The authors show how saddlepoint techniques lead to highly accurate approximations for Bayesian predictive densities and cumulative distribution functions in stochastic model settings where the prior is tractable, but not necessarily the likelihood or the predictand distribution. They consider more specifically models involving predictions associated with waiting times for semi‐Markov processes whose distributions are indexed by an unknown parameter θ. Bayesian prediction for such processes when they are not stationary is also addressed and the inverse‐Gaussian based saddlepoint approximation of Wood, Booth & Butler (1993) is shown to accurately deal with the nonstationarity whereas the normal‐based Lugannani & Rice (1980) approximation cannot, Their methods are illustrated by predicting various waiting times associated with M/M/q and M/G/1 queues. They also discuss modifications to the matrix renewal theory needed for computing the moment generating functions that are used in the saddlepoint methods.     

出生人口性别比与和谐社会建设:一个定性和定量分析

20世纪80年代中期以来,中国的出生性别比持续攀升,出生人口性别结构严重失衡。运用定性和定量相结合的研究方法,探讨出生性别比失衡的潜在因素和制度因素。分析结果表明,农村地区出生性别比的失衡与儿子预期的经济价值和文化功用相关。最后提出具有针对性的缓解出生性别比失衡的建议。