元初道士诗人马臻生平事迹考辨

元初南方正一派道士诗人马臻,其诗在元道流诗人中成就颇高,但生平正史无传,后人述及,或含混不清,或失检误判,或有舛史实,作者就其生卒年、青少年经历、壮游西京、晚年生活四个问题作出考辨.     

An exact test for nbue class of survival functions

Let F(x) be a life distribution. An exact test is given for testing H₀ F is exponential, versusH₁Fε NBUE (NWUE); along with a table of critical values for n=5(l)80, and n=80(5)65. An asymptotic test is made available for large values of n, where the standardized normal table can be used for testing.     

浅谈土族民俗中的生育文化

土族民间祈求生育的风俗所包容的文化内涵 ,反映了土族人民的良好愿望和民俗心理 ,文章对此研究和探讨 ,有益于革新除旧 ,建立新的生育观念和计划生育工作的开展。     

陕西省出生人口性别比定量分析与对策探讨

文章根据陕西省历次人口普查、部分人口抽样调查资料及公安、教育、计生统计报表数据，时全省出生人口性别失衡程度、女婴缺失数量和分因素贡献率等几个问题进行定量分析，并对出生人口性别比综合治理和科学决策提出建议。     

Family budgets and public money: spending fostering payments

In this second of two papers based on a study of payment issues within foster care, the focus is on expenditure. It is argued that the hybrid public/private nature of fostering gives rise to contradictory pressures for carers, including the status of maintenance payments as both part of family budgets and a form of delegated public expenditure. For example, carers are required in principle both to spend fixed amounts upon foster children and to treat them in like fashion to their own children. In this paper, the issue of ‘like treatment’ is explored, along with the significance of payment for ‘children who foster’ and for relationships between carers and foster children. Also examined are the challenges presented by differences between carers’ material circumstances and those of birth families, especially when reunification is planned. Overall, the paper seeks to show how the handling of expenditure becomes closely entwined with inter‐personal dynamics within foster care.     

负二项分布的推广

本文主要是在二项分布,多项分布,负二项分布的基础上,把负二项分布进一步推广,给出负N项分布的定义,推导出它的概率分布,并计算出其数学期望和方差.     

White and nonwhite trends in first birth timing: Comparisons using vital registration and current population surveys

The magnitude of racial differences in first birth timing vary greatly depending upon the data sources from which they are estimated. Vital registration data (Heuser 1976; with updates from the National Center for Health Statistics 1974–1990) show that in recent years nonwhites have higher risks of a first birth at virtually all ages compared to whites. As a result very large and historically novel differentials in childlessness are forecast using these data (see Rindfuss et al. 1988; Chen & Morgan 1991; Morgan & Chen 1992). However, retrospective fertility history data collected from the 1980, 1985 and 1990 Current Population Surveys (CPS) suggest much smaller racial differences in completed childlessness and isolate racial differences in probabilities of first births at young ages. Differences also exist between theses two series for whites prior to the mid-1960s but not afterwards. Reasons for these differing estimates are suggested and examined. We conclude that a substantial portion of the differences result from an accumulation of biases in the vital registration estimates that affect primarily estimates of first birth timing. Thus, the CPS data provide a more firm basis for racial comparisons of first birth timing.     

A strong law of large number for negatively dependent and non identical distributed random variables in the framework of sublinear expectation

Abstract

In this article, in the framework of sublinear expectation initiated by Peng, we derive a strong law of large numbers (SLLN) for negatively dependent and non identical distributed random variables. This result includes and extends some existing results. Furthermore, we give two examples of our result for applications.     

治理通货膨胀预期应成为宏观政策关注的新视角

通货膨胀既可以是供求失衡导致的，也可以是货币膨胀导致的。在世界经济迅猛发展的今天，通货膨胀发生发展的机理也存悄然发生着变化，正是这些变化，使得通货膨胀对社会经济的影响已经前置到通货膨胀预期对经济发展的影响。本文以中国经济企稳过程为真实背景，初步探讨通货膨胀预期的负效应及治理的政策路径，尽管存在个案特征，但仍不失为一种分析思路。