缩小城乡收入差距哪种社保类型更有效？——基于财政社保与社会保险的比较分析

党的十九届五中全会将共同富裕纳入2035年远景目标,社会保障具有较强的针对性和直接性,是缩小城乡收入差距、实现共同富裕的重要手段。基于此,运用2009—2019年全国31个省级行政区划单位的面板数据,基于包含财政社保水平和社会保险水平的数理模型分析了二者对城乡收入差距的影响,通过空间相关性和非线性假设对问题展开研究。研究表明,省际城乡收入差距具有正的空间相关性,财政社保水平可以有效缩小城乡收入差距,并且随着劳动力市场化进程,其政策效果将会逐步凸显。社会保险水平缩小城乡收入差距的作用较弱,主要原因在于养老保险制度难以适配劳动力市场化进程,而医疗保险和其他社会保险水平则相反。基于以上研究,我国应当增加财政社保支出,因地制宜地调整社会保险制度,形成缩小城乡收入差距的合力。     

语境与认知能力成熟度关系及教学对策

阐释语境化教学和认知能力成熟度之问的相互关联.认为教学的语境化需要推理、假设和假设验证等认知活动的参与,认知能力成熟度才能得到提升.认知能力越趋成熟,对语境的理解就越为完善.教学中应根据教学对象、教学内容、个体认知方式的差异创造、选择和利用语境,培养和提高学习者的认知水平,促进语言的学习和发展.     

猎人、猎物、腐食者？——《人类演化原理》中的人类祖先

长久以来,透过各类传播媒介的介绍,大多数人似乎已经认定我们的老祖先很早就能运用智慧与勇气在蛮荒世界生存,成为自然界的伟大猎人.但事实似乎没有那么简单.本文从英国普利兹奖得主Roger Lewin和剑桥大学教授Robert A. Foley合著的《人类演化原理》(Principles of Human Evolution)一书的相关研究成果,介绍人类先祖(hominins)究竟是猎人、猎物,或腐食者的争论.此外,也高度评价了该书以科学的视野与优美的文笔,让读者清楚掌握学者应如何解读考古材料,并且以侦探小说的笔调,描绘了人类先祖的生计与社会活动的演化.     

Divergence versus decision P-values: A distinction worth making in theory and keeping in practice: Or,how divergence P-values measure evidence even when decision P-values do not

There are two distinct definitions of “P-value” for evaluating a proposed hypothesis or model for the process generating an observed dataset. The original definition starts with a measure of the divergence of the dataset from what was expected under the model, such as a sum of squares or a deviance statistic. A P-value is then the ordinal location of the measure in a reference distribution computed from the model and the data, and is treated as a unit-scaled index of compatibility between the data and the model. In the other definition, a P-value is a random variable on the unit interval whose realizations can be compared to a cutoff α to generate a decision rule with known error rates under the model and specific alternatives. It is commonly assumed that realizations of such decision P-values always correspond to divergence P-values. But this need not be so: Decision P-values can violate intuitive single-sample coherence criteria where divergence P-values do not. It is thus argued that divergence and decision P-values should be carefully distinguished in teaching, and that divergence P-values are the relevant choice when the analysis goal is to summarize evidence rather than implement a decision rule.