A stochastic graph process for epidemic modelling

A stochastic graph process with a Markov property is introduced to model the flow of an infectious disease over a known contact network. The model provides a probability distribution over unobserved infectious pathways. The basic reproductive number in compartmental models is generalized to a dynamic reproductive number based on the sequence of outdegrees in the graph process. The cumulative resistance and threat associated with each individual is also measured based on the cumulative indegree and outdegree of the graph process. The model is applied to the outbreak data from the 2001 foot‐and‐mouth (FMD) outbreak in the United Kingdom. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 55–67; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

Psychometric and Faciometric Support for Observable Facial Feminization in Gay Men

ABSTRACT

Though male homosexuality appears to be evolutionarily paradoxical, phenotypic feminization has been offered as a route for three current models positing a genetic basis for male homosexuality. We tested whether facial feminization is observable in gay men in two studies. In Study 1, using two composite images of gay and of heterosexual men, naive participants (N = 308) rated the “gay” face more highly on stereotypically feminine traits and actual femininity and the “heterosexual” face more highly on stereotypically masculine traits and actual masculinity. In Study 2, faciometrics of 428 Internet images of gay (N = 219) and heterosexual men were analyzed along six sexually dimorphic ratios. The faciometrics of gay men were more feminine, both in gestalt terms and for five of the six individual traits. The studies offer objective support for a more feminized facial phenotype in gay males that is difficult to explain through cultural or behavioral cues.     

试论史弥远对其执政合法性的塑造——以嘉定宝玺事件为中心

嘉定年间,蒙古的崛起改变了原先宋、金、西夏三国并立的稳定格局,令未来局势走向变幻莫测。为寻求因应之道,南宋朝野上下围绕着内外政策展开了激烈争论,作为宰相的史弥远及其所奉行的“安静”之政,不断遭受抨击。嘉定十五年,他利用蒙古归还徽宗宝玺的契机,策划了一场隆重的受宝典礼,意图借此改变人们对于南宋处境的认知,弥合朝野分歧,维护政局稳定,进而塑造其长期执政的合理性。     

组织印记、生态位与农民合作社联合社发展

以组织生态学为理论基础,建构了联合社演化机制的理论分析框架。研究发现,联合社建群者特征形塑了联合社建群者的生态圈效应和生态位效应,在联合社成立之初,建群者效用决定了其初始生态位的选取与生态圈的形态,并形成联合社建群者的效应印记,联合社生态圈宽度、均衡度、资源能力的互补度以及生态圈与生态位的匹配度之间所建构的因果反馈机制构成了生态圈的要素联结路径,如果建群者效用通过要素联结路径能够顺利转化为生态耦合效用,联合社就会规范成长,如果要素联结分化导致耦合效用畸变,联合社就会质性漂移,异化为企业,如果要素联结失败,联合社内外耦合都失败,联合社就会沦为空壳社、僵尸社。     

习近平推进马克思主义话语体系中国化论析

习近平是当代推进马克思主义话语体系中国化的楷模和榜样。通过分析习近平引用古典名句、近现代名言、民俗谚语对马克思主义话语体系中国化的推进情况,发现推进的机理有：以中华优秀传统文化为载体,促进话语体系的转换;以亲民、“短、实、新”的文风重构中国式的马克思主义话语。而且,习近平的讲话给马克思主义话语体系中国化在方法上留下的深刻启示至少有：一定要大力传承和弘扬中华优秀传统文化;要用中国人自己的话语来表述马克思主义;表述时要亲民、“接地气”,善用群众语言,做到“短、实、新”。在伟大的中国特色社会主义新时代,学习研究习近平对马克思主义话语体系中国化的推进,具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。     

太平玉玺读解

太平玉玺在上个世纪众说纷纭,成为太平军研究的歌德巴赫猜想式的难题。它并非曾国藩部下冒功造假。李秀成供词说在长沙时所造不可信,而是制作于公元1850年4月5日之前。应读为:一个玺名———太平玉玺;十句玺文———天父上帝/天兄基督/天王洪日/主王舆笃/救世幼主/真王贵福/八位万岁/永锡天禄/永定乾坤/恩和辑睦。“主王舆笃”是说天王宝座巩固长久。“八位万岁”是指天王、幼主、杨秀清、萧朝贵、冯云山、韦昌辉、石达开、洪大全。     

VPN中的安全卫士—IPSec协议

IPCec是目前适用于所有 Internet通信的唯一一种安全技术 ,是目前最易于扩展、最完整的一种网络安全方案。本文就 VPN中的第三层隧道协议 IPSec的组成、特点、工作模式、工作原理及在 VPN中的应用做了理论性的阐述。同时也指出了 IPSec的尚待补充之处和发展前景。     

The mouths of others: The linguistic performance of race in Bermuda

This paper examines the behaviour of one linguistic feature among one black and one white group of Bermudian men over the age of 50. The acoustic analysis of the mouth vowel, one of the most heavily stereotyped sounds of Bermudian English, is used as a window onto linguistic parody observed in the white group, a community of practice known locally for theatrical dialect performance. In combination with contextual analysis, and in light of social conditions in Bermuda, phonetic findings suggest that this linguistic practice is not only a performance of “Bermudian‐ness,” but also a performance of a racialized stereotype which reflects and reinforces the raciolinguistic hierarchies of contemporary Bermudian society. The paper introduces this under‐researched and unusual sociolinguistic setting to the literature on racialized mock language, as well as attesting further to the usefulness of methods that examine highly self‐conscious speech.     

Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of Release of Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Virus via Export of Bull Semen from Israel

Various foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) virus strains circulate in the Middle East, causing frequent episodes of FMD outbreaks among Israeli livestock. Since the virus is highly resistant in semen, artificial insemination with contaminated bull semen may lead to the infection of the receiver cow. As a non‐FMD‐free country with vaccination, Israel is currently engaged in trading bull semen only with countries of the same status. The purpose of this study was to assess the risk of release of FMD virus through export of bull semen in order to estimate the risk for FMD‐free countries considering purchasing Israeli bull semen. A stochastic risk assessment model was used to estimate this risk, defined as the annual likelihood of exporting at least one ejaculate of bull semen contaminated with viable FMD virus. A total of 45 scenarios were assessed to account for uncertainty and variability around specific parameter estimates and to evaluate the effect of various mitigation measures, such as performing a preexport test on semen ejaculates. Under the most plausible scenario, the annual likelihood of exporting bull semen contaminated with FMD virus had a median of 1.3 * 10^?7 for an export of 100 ejaculates per year. This corresponds to one infected ejaculate exported every 7 million years. Under the worst‐case scenario, the median of the risk rose to 7.9 * 10^?5, which is equivalent to the export of one infected ejaculate every 12,000 years. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the most influential parameter is the probability of viral excretion in infected bulls.     

利益魔咒下法律正义的虚假本———重读马克思的《关于林木盗窃法的辩论》

《关于林木盗窃法的辩论》是青年马克思思想“在途中”的过渡性与转折性文本，再现其历 史构境和叙事逻辑，无论是思想史意义还是现实功效上，都不乏必要性所在。有关林木盗窃“罪 名”背后的非道德性之深究、政治权威沦为私利的奴仆的国家本质颠倒性之揭示，以及立法者本身 的不法症候之剖析，当系文本之命意所趋，也是马克思日后破灭古典自由主义价值悬设，走向本真 的历史深处和现实大地的始源地。同时文中还就马克思未加说明的“物质利益发表意见的难事” 之细节做了具体说明，对列宁的“转变说”做了辩证分析，并从本体论、方法论和价值论三重视角指 认出该文本意义所在。