基于支持向量机模型的北京市能源需求预测研究

北京市能源需求系统具有非线性、历史数据较少而影响因素众多等复杂特征, 而支持向量机模型在解决小样本、非线性及高维模式识别问题方面具有突出优势。为此, 引入支持向量机模型对北京市1978-2010年能源需求进行建模, 并据此对2012-2020年能源需求量进行预测。结果表明:支持向量机模型能有效拟合北京市能源需求系统的复杂变化趋势, 比其他传统方法有更高的预测精度。研究发现, 2012-2020年北京市能源需求量逐年增加, 年均增速2.75%;另外, 北京市能源需求的增速在“十三五”期间会比“十二五”期间略有趋缓。     

Dual effects of ‘losses disguised as wins’ and near-misses in a slot machine game

Individually, both near-misses and losses disguised as wins (LDWs) have been seen to exert pro-motivational effects on gambling. However, it is not clear whether both structural characteristics are effective within the same game. Participants (n = 40) played a slot machine simulation. The simulation delivered near-misses, wins and ‘full-misses’. Half the participants also received LDWs that occurred independently of the outcomes on the payline. Valence and motivation ratings were collected after each round. Results showed that the LDW group reported increased valence ratings compared to the no-LDW group. Within the LDW group, trials with LDWs also resulted in increased enjoyment compared to trials without LDWs. We distinguished near-misses falling either side of the payline. Near-misses before the payline (NMB) were rated as more motivational than near-misses after the payline (NMA), whereas NMAs were rated as more aversive than NMBs. These differences between the two near-miss types were exacerbated by LDWs. Results demonstrate LDWs increase the trial-by-trial enjoyment of non-win outcomes. The motivational and hedonic effects of near-misses differed for events either side of the payline, and these differences were exaggerated by the presence of LDWs. Thus, near-misses can retain their effectiveness in complex forms of gambling that also deliver LDWs.     

Harm Reduction and Electronic Gambling Machines: Does this Pair Make a Happy Couple or is Divorce Foreseen?

Recent empirical studies have evaluated if modifying electronic gambling machine (EGM) structural features could encourage safer gambling behaviors and decrease gambling-related problems. Several of these studies refer to Harm Reduction (HR), suggesting that the HR paradigm is useful to design, implement and test the efficacy of various prevention and treatment programs applied to EGM users. After reviewing the origins of HR and specifying its operational definition, this paper discusses the relevance of the HR framework for the study of measures related to EGM use and gambling in general. Examples are given to illustrate the arguments. The results show that HR has been over-inclusive in the field of gambling. A specific and operational definition and application of the HR framework is required for HR to be useful for the advancement of research in the gambling field. Disclosure: At the time of the study, Michael Cantinotti held a scholarship from the Loterie Romande (public-benefit lottery in Switzerland) for his doctoral studies. This study was funded by the Fonds pour la prévention et le traitement du jeu of the Fondation de l’Université Laval. During the study, the Centre québécois d’excellence pour la prévention et le traitement du jeu received financial support from the Ministère de la Santé et des Services Sociaux du Québec, the Fonds Québécois de la Recherche pour la Santé et la Culture, Loto-Québec, the Ontario Problem Gambling Research Center, and Harrah’s Operating Funds.     

The Influence of Gaming Expenditure on Crime Rates in South Australia: A Local Area Empirical Investigation

Although there has been much speculation about the possible links between gambling and crime rates, relevant quantitative evidence has been practically non-existent in Australia to date. This paper reports the results of research that utilised a model designed to investigate the potential relationship between electronic gaming machine expenditures and property (income-generating) crime rates reported to police in local areas in South Australia in 2002–2003. The research found that the higher the expenditures on gaming machines in a particular local area per adult, the higher the income-generating crime rate in that area. No such relationship was found between gaming machine expenditure and non-income-generating crime rates. However, further research is required before any policy-relevant conclusions can be drawn.     

一类新型批处理机调度问题的理论分析

钢卷在冷轧生产中,为了改进其性能,需要在罩式炉进行退火,退火过程由加热、保温和降温三段组成,而这三段处理时间由于工艺上的要求不能归结为一个时间,这与传统批处理机调度有明显的差别.对新型批处理机的总加权完成时间最小化问题建立了非线性整数规划模型,开发了基于动态规划的启发式算法.通过理论分析,获得该算法的误差性能比为3.对于三段中的某一段板卷的处理时间相同的情况,证明了启发式算法的误差性能比是2,而且证明是紧界.对于三段中的某二段板卷的处理时间相同的情况,证明了启发式算法是最优算法.对启发式算法扩展到带有任意段的加工时间的一般情况进行了性能分析.     

逸人·逸笔·逸气——论倪瓒诗画创作风格的互通

倪瓒身处元末,散尽家财,隐迹山水,交游甚广,以写诗、作画以自娱。倪瓒之画,不求形似,简笔率略而成,自得天真逸趣,形成简远空疏之境。倪瓒之诗,不事雕琢,遇事感兴,得乎性情之正,有冲淡萧散之风。作为画家兼诗人,倪瓒打破了画与诗两种不同艺术形式之间的壁垒,实现了其诗画艺术风格的互通。     

笔墨情趣——明代文人画的再审视

一般观念认为,从明至清是中国美术史的衰落阶段,其实不然。虽然明清是封建社会走向消亡时期,而这时候,在封建社会内部产生的资本主义萌芽和人文主义思潮,为艺术的发展注入了新鲜血液。在中国历史上,文人士大夫一直起着重要的作用,尤其在文化建设领域。在身受各种环境条件的制约之下,他们不能施展自己的抱负,总是幻想突破成法,另立新法,以发挥他们的才能。在明代特定的历史条件下,文人画家真正把笔法与墨法自觉地、紧密地结合起来,将笔墨发展为独立审美要素,与形象一起构成情趣画面,给欣赏者带来无限遐思与享受。明代文人画笔墨积淀了中国几千年来的文化与哲学,以笔墨之道体现人文关怀,是明代文人画家在绘画领域开辟的一个新天地,是对文人情愫的深层次展现。     

普特南的机器功能主义简述

机器功能主义是功能主义的一种重要形式,是一种对心灵的本体论问题和其它心理属性具有较强的解释力的,克服了逻辑行为主义和类型同一论部分困难的哲学理论。但机器功能主义虽然作为一种主流的理论也有其局限性,例如在解释感受性质等问题上具有不可克服的困难。     

新型纸箱包装机PLC控制系统设计

基于已设计的机械及气动系统,选择欧姆龙公司CP1HX40DTD PLC研制纸箱包装机控制系统。并进行了I/O点分配、PLC外部接线图及程序控制流程图设计,实现了纸板供送、待装箱产品输送、纸箱装箱成形、喷胶封箱整形等工作过程的自动控制。[HTK]具有很高的可靠性和性价比。     

单毛毯压榨在湿浆板机中的应用

通过分析浆板脱水的工作原理,提出在湿浆板机中可以应用单毛毯来进行压榨。通过比较双毯压榨和单毯压榨在湿浆板机中对浆板回湿,起皱的差别,说明单毛毯压榨在湿浆板机中的应用优势,并对双毯压榨和单毯压榨的经济性比较,提出使用单毛毯压榨可节约成本、降低能耗。最后,指出了在湿浆板机试车中需注意的问题。