世界教育信息化发展及其经验

教育信息化是战后教育发展的最重要发展方向之一。世界教育信息化的发展经历了发端、进一步推进和迅速高涨的发展时期;在每一个阶段各国推进教育信息化的政策、措施和特点等方面都呈现出一些独自的特征。总结世界各国推进教育信息化的经验对我国教育信息化的发展具有重要的启发意义。     

Sampling Returns for Realized Variance Calculations: Tick Time or Transaction Time?

This article introduces a new model for transaction prices in the presence of market microstructure noise in order to study the properties of the price process on two different time scales, namely, transaction time where prices are sampled with every transaction and tick time where prices are sampled with every price change. Both sampling schemes have been used in the literature on realized variance, but a formal investigation into their properties has been lacking. Our empirical and theoretical results indicate that the return dynamics in transaction time are very different from those in tick time and the choice of sampling scheme can therefore have an important impact on the properties of realized variance. For RV we find that tick time sampling is superior to transaction time sampling in terms of mean-squared-error, especially when the level of noise, number of ticks, or the arrival frequency of efficient price moves is low. Importantly, we show that while the microstructure noise may appear close to IID in transaction time, in tick time it is highly dependent. As a result, bias correction procedures that rely on the noise being independent, can fail in tick time and are better implemented in transaction time.     

Bayesian analysis of elapsed times in continuous‐time Markov chains

The authors consider Bayesian analysis for continuous‐time Markov chain models based on a conditional reference prior. For such models, inference of the elapsed time between chain observations depends heavily on the rate of decay of the prior as the elapsed time increases. Moreover, improper priors on the elapsed time may lead to improper posterior distributions. In addition, an infinitesimal rate matrix also characterizes this class of models. Experts often have good prior knowledge about the parameters of this matrix. The authors show that the use of a proper prior for the rate matrix parameters together with the conditional reference prior for the elapsed time yields a proper posterior distribution. The authors also demonstrate that, when compared to analyses based on priors previously proposed in the literature, a Bayesian analysis on the elapsed time based on the conditional reference prior possesses better frequentist properties. The type of prior thus represents a better default prior choice for estimation software.     

晋商文化及精神对现代工商管理的影响

晋商在明清发展到鼎盛时期,曾是在我国具有重要影响的商邦。他们在长期经营活动中形成的晋商文化以及节俭勤奋、明礼诚信、精于管理、勇于开拓的商业精神是其持续发展的精神动力,成为我国"儒商文化"继承和发展的典范,是我国商业文化史上宝贵的精神财富。弘扬晋商文化及精神,挖掘其内涵,坚持古为今用,将对新晋商的崛起和现代工商企业管理改革与创新产生极为深刻的影响。     

上市公司综合评价研究

客观合理地评价上市公司,是投资者、上市公司以及监管机构都非常关注的问题,也是规范发展证券市场的一个重要方面。基于平衡记分卡的原理,提出了我国上市公司的评价指标体系。财务层面的评价采用因子分析法;客户层面、内部层面、学习与创新层面以及综合评价,则是根据模糊三角数的概念构造判断矩阵,利用模糊三角数比较大小的原理进行排序。     

家族式企业裂解动因的制度分析

我国家族企业“富不过三代”现象引起了人们的极大关注。笔者认为,家族式企业裂解的制度原因在于产权制度的排他性、委托代理的高风险性以及人才选拔的制度封闭性。     

商业保险公司的合约性质

传统观念认为,保险公司是一种特殊的组织,它凭借大数定律把被保险人组织起来,产生自救行为。但是这并不能解释保险公司的投资行为,也不能解释一些保险公司的投资收益占总收益的比率相当大,更不能解释一些保险公司在本原业务的经营出现问题时依靠投资收益走出困境。采用静态分析方法是这一理论的主要局限性。本文拟创造性地综合运用企业理论、金融工程、微观经济学和保险理论的分析方法从一个新的视角──保险企业的合约性质──对保险公司的性质作出分析,并进一步对保险公司为什么需要投资作出新的理论解释。     

客户关系管理是一种竞争战略

客户关系管理是当今企业管理研究的热点之一,但理论界对客户关系管理的定义、界定、体系框架一直处于热烈的争论与探讨之中。正确界定客户关系管理的定义意义重大,用战略管理方法研究客户关系管理战略。通过战略管理可以降低企业CRM系统实施的失败率。     

Cultural Variables and International Business

IntroductionCulturegivesanindividualananchoringpoint,ani dentity ,aswellascodesofconduct (MichaelR ,Iikka ,andMichaelH 2 0 0 2 :33) .Ofmorethan 16 0definitionsofculture (AlfredandClyde 1985 :11) ,mostagreeonsomebasicprinciples ,butthereisalotofvariationonthedetails .Cultureisalsomultidimensional ,consistingofanumberofcommonelementsthatareinterdependent.Thedifferencesinculturehaveanimportantimpactonmanyaspectsofamultinationalcompany’sactivity .Thispaperwillmainlydiscusstheeffectofsomeofthe…     

经济预测中的Monte Carlo模拟及方差控制——以国际石油价格预测为例

从MDnte Carlo模拟的实现过程入手，首先通过对Monte Carlo方法原理的阐述来介绍该种方法。进一步结合具体的实例通过计算机进行模拟来解释Monte Carlo方法的具体实现过程。重点讨论在选择合理的数据生成过程的前提下，如何在Monte Carlo方法中减少模拟方差，从而提高估计精度，更好地应用这种方法来进行经济预测。