Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.     

中国A、B股市场相关性与协整性的实证研究

运用相关、协整和因果关系检验等计量经济学方法对中国AB股市场之间的相关性与协整性进行了实证研究,以期找出股市间价格波动的运行规律。结果表明,B股市场对境内投资者开放后,沪深两市A股与B股之间开始存在协整关系,并且沪市的A股市场是先于B股市场的,而深市AB股市场之间不存在先导性。研究结果为判断和分析中国股票市场的基本特征和投资者行为,提供了一定的参考依据。     

经济增长差异与农产品比较优势

随着我国加入世贸组织 ,农产品比较优势问题在国内得到普遍的关注。然而 ,由于存在经济增长差异 ,有比较优势的产品 ,在国际市场上不一定有竞争优势。因此 ,要把我国农业培植成具有国际竞争力的产业 ,就必须把现有的比较优势转化为竞争优势。     

英语成绩与焦虑特性的相关性研究

文章以南华大学外国语学院英语专业二年级 4 4名本科生为对象 ,用SPSS统计软件包分析研究了学生英语成绩及若干专业技能与焦虑特性的相关性。研究结果表明 :( 1)学生英语成绩与焦虑特性呈中度负相关 ;( 2 )在听写、听力、阅读、写作这四项单项能力方面 ,听写和听力是与焦虑特性相关性最高的两个 ,而完形填空、词汇与结构与焦虑特性不相关。     

图式理论、学习策略与大学英语口语教学

本研究采用定量分析的方法,对84名天水师范学院非英语专业的学生的口语水平进行测试。根据图式理论,口语任务分为有关键词及句型提示类和无提示类,并对被试的学习策略使用情况做了调查,结果发现,口语任务有提示与无提示对学生的口语成绩有显著影响,这说明图式理论完全适用于大学英语口语教学。     

An affine‐invariant multivariate sign test for cluster correlated data

The author presents a multivariate location model for cluster correlated observations. He proposes an affine‐invariant multivariate sign statistic for testing the value of the location parameter. His statistic is an adaptation of that proposed by Randles (2000). The author shows, under very mild conditions, that his test statistic is asymptotically distributed as a chi‐squared random variable under the null hypothesis. In particular, the test can be used for skewed populations. In the context of a general multivariate normal model, the author obtains values of his test's Pitman asymptotic efficiency relative to another test based on the overall average. He shows that there is an improvement in the relative performance of the new test as soon as intra‐cluster correlation is present Even in the univariate case, the new test can be very competitive for Gaussian data. Furthermore, the statistic is easy to compute, even for large dimensional data. The author shows through simulations that his test performs well compared to the average‐based test. He illustrates its use with real data.     

A note on measures of similarity based on centrality

This note presents a measure of similarity between connected nodes in terms of centrality based on Euclidean distances, and compares it to ‘assortative mixing’ [Newman, M.E.J., 2002. Assortative mixing in networks. Physical Review Letters 89, 208701], which is based on Pearson correlation coefficient. This study suggests that the measure based on Euclidean distances may be more appropriate for relatively smaller (N < 500) and denser networks.     

论朝鲜文化与儒学的关联

中朝两国文化源远流长，儒学传入朝鲜后，对朝鲜的政治统治、思想观念、教育制度等方面产生了深远的影响，而朝鲜立足本国国情，从多角度、多侧面与儒学发生了融合，并逐步形成了具有本民族特色的朝鲜儒学。     

小麦新品种“绵阳26”主要性状与产量的关系

对45个试验点的资料分析,多抗、丰产、优质、广适小麦新品种绵阳26的主要性状有效穗x1、穗粒数x2和千粒x3、单穗重x4与产量y的回归方程为：y＝－614．8425＋9.8683x1＋7.3223x2＋10．5315x3＋22．5748x4。经偏回归和偏相关分析,产量构成因素中,千粒重、有效穗对绵阳26产量的贡献和影响最大（b'3＝1．7435,b'1＝1．5372,R3y.＝0．7983,R1y＝0．6991）。在现有产量的基础上稳定千粒重,主攻穗数和穗粒数,是发挥绵阳26高产潜力的决定因素。     

测试实数编码遗传算法的困难度

分析了遗传算法困难度测试在遗传算法研究中的重要意义. 鉴于当前这方面的研究集 中于二进制编码遗传算法,对实数编码遗传算法的困难度测试进行了分析. 探讨了实数编码遗 传算法困难度分析的适应值与距离相关系数测试法与基于随机游走模型的相关函数测试法, 提出了最佳一阶函数逼近测试法,做了大量实验,并根据实证分析结果对三种方法进行了比较 与评价.