重新认识犯罪构成的主观要件

刑事立法中的"知意论"作为判断行为人主观心态的法律依据,在刑事司法操作中有唯心之嫌。刑事司法实践中应该改造因果关系近因说,吸纳美国因果关系理论中的概率标准以及犯罪主观心态分两个层次的合理因素,以客观的行为和行为结果的概然关系为依据判断犯罪心态,体现出主观要件与客观要件在判断是否构成犯罪的推理过程中之交互作用。     

环境侵权因果关系判断标准体系的建构

环境侵权因果关系判断标准是事实与价值判断的法律整合，其中所涵盖的各种复杂要素，使这一标准在立法和司法层面的操作变得日益困难。然而，对原因和结果及其关联性的客观实在的判断是得以作出法律的价值判断的前提。法律的判断标准，是客观实在与主观认知的精妙的结合。     

农村人力资本与经济增长关系的实证分析

运用协整理论和格兰杰因果检验方法研究我国农村人力资本与农村产出增长的关系,以验证在我国是否存在"农村人力资本陷阱"。协整检验结果表明,我国农村经济增长和人力资本之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系。格兰杰检验结果表明,我国农村经济增长和人力资本之间存在单向格兰杰因果关系:人力资本增长是引起农村经济增长的格兰杰原因,而农村经济增长并未带来人力资本的增长。     

辽宁省FDI的经济增长效应实证分析

从理论上研究辽宁省外商直接投资的经济增长作用,检验外商直接投资与经济增长存在协整关系,通过葛兰杰因果检验验证外商直接投资的增加引起经济增长的结论,并提出今后发展的建议.     

西部地区对外贸易与经济增长的协整及因果关系检验

运用协整和因果关系检验理论,对西部地区从1978年到2004年的对外贸易与经济增长数据进行实证检验。结果发现二者之间存在长期稳定的关系,但并不存在明显的互为因果关系。在协整分析的基础上建立了误差修正模型,分别从长期和短期对两者之间的关系进行了定量分析,继而提出了通过改善市场环境、完善出口制度等,加大对外贸易在西部经济总量中的份额等政策建议。     

What can Statistics Contribute to a Causal Understanding?

Abstract.  We discuss the concept of causality in a broad manner. The traditional attitude in statistics has been to shy away from the causality concept. In recent years, however, a more proactive attitude to the causality concept has developed among statisticians. On the one hand, there is the school of counterfactual causality directed towards forming a better basis for clinical trials and epidemiology. On the other hand, there is the mechanistic view of causality. These developments are discussed and set into a larger context, where the often ignored role of time is emphasized. An extension of path analysis to stochastic processes is briefly presented. Causality is furthermore discussed in relation to genetic studies and to the emerging field of systems biology. Statisticians should also relate to the philosophical content of causality, especially that found in the foundations of physics.     

平衡计分卡因果关系再认识

因果关系链被视做是Kaplan和Norton创立的平衡计分卡的理论核心和精髓.然而,学术界对此却存在截然相反的观点,支持者和质疑者各执一词.而究其原因,在于对因果关系基本概念的认识不同.质疑者是从纯粹因果关系准则对平衡计分卡的因果关系进行批判,是对平衡计分卡及其因果关系的误解.而在现实经济管理活动中,往往若干影响因素同时存在,因此不能以纯粹的因果关系来讨论或质疑平衡计分卡的因果关系.作为科学与艺术兼具的管理实践工具,平衡计分卡各指标之间只存在具体管理情景下相对的因果关系.正如Kaplan和Norton所强调的,建立平衡计分卡因果关系链的根本目的在于通过各指标与战略相连接,在寻找因的过程中,分析企业现有的问题,采取相应的行动,实现组织目标,这恰恰是平衡计分卡的魅力所在.     

Linear and nonlinear causality tests in an LSTAR model: wavelet decomposition in a nonlinear environment

In this paper, we use simulated data to investigate the power of different causality tests in a two-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The data are presented in a nonlinear environment that is modelled using a logistic smooth transition autoregressive function. We use both linear and nonlinear causality tests to investigate the unidirection causality relationship and compare the power of these tests. The linear test is the commonly used Granger causality F test. The nonlinear test is a non-parametric test based on Baek and Brock [A general test for non-linear Granger causality: Bivariate model. Tech. Rep., Iowa State University and University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, 1992] and Hiemstra and Jones [Testing for linear and non-linear Granger causality in the stock price–volume relation, J. Finance 49(5) (1994), pp. 1639–1664]. When implementing the nonlinear test, we use separately the original data, the linear VAR filtered residuals, and the wavelet decomposed series based on wavelet multiresolution analysis. The VAR filtered residuals and the wavelet decomposition series are used to extract the nonlinear structure of the original data. The simulation results show that the non-parametric test based on the wavelet decomposition series (which is a model-free approach) has the highest power to explore the causality relationship in nonlinear models.     

Housing price, elderly dependency and fertility behaviour

Sustaining declines in fertility have increasingly become an alarming issue in most of the world economies. Many governments have been making enormous efforts to alleviate such intertwined problems as falling fertility and soaring elderly dependency. What really makes fertility rates fall? Does housing price have a role (as many argue)? Most researchers addressed this issue from a demographic perspective, but have yet to fully unravel the mystery of human fertility behaviour. The paper aims to investigate the novel linkages between birth rate, housing price and elderly dependency, with the case of Hong Kong. It employs two key methods: (i) the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) to co-integration procedure and (ii) Granger causality, to disentangle the complicated relationships, long-run and short-run. The empirical results show that a 1 percent increase in housing prices and elderly leads to 0.52% and 1.65% decreases in birth rate respectively. Besides, both housing price and elderly dependency Granger cause birth rate in the long-run. Our findings not only shed light on fertility behaviour, but also provide implications for policy change. That is particularly relevant to those economies whose low fertility situations need to be ameliorated.     

康德和因果问题的解决

因果必然性问题,关涉到自由(自由的因果性)和必然(自然的因果性)的关系问题.康德不否认自由和必然的同一性,只是否认了人认识此同一性的可能性.但是,康德并没有彻底割断自由与自然的联系.通过先验自由的直接联系,我们可以发现自由与必然的本源的统一性.通过这个本源的统一性,我们就可以很好地解决因果问题,并且对康德因果问题解答的合理性和局限性作出解释.