Unified multivariate survival model with a surviving fraction: an application to a Brazilian customer churn data

In this paper we propose a new lifetime model for multivariate survival data in presence of surviving fractions and examine some of its properties. Its genesis is based on situations in which there are m types of unobservable competing causes, where each cause is related to a time of occurrence of an event of interest. Our model is a multivariate extension of the univariate survival cure rate model proposed by Rodrigues et al. [37 J. Rodrigues, V.G. Cancho, M. de Castro, and F. Louzada-Neto, On the unification of long-term survival models, Statist. Probab. Lett. 79 (2009), pp. 753–759. doi: 10.1016/j.spl.2008.10.029[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]]. The inferential approach exploits the maximum likelihood tools. We perform a simulation study in order to verify the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators. The simulation study also focus on size and power of the likelihood ratio test. The methodology is illustrated on a real data set on customer churn data.     

Influence diagnostics for the Weibull-Negative-Binomial regression model with cure rate under latent failure causes

In this paper, we propose a flexible cure rate survival model by assuming that the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the Negative Binomial distribution and the time to event follows a Weibull distribution. Indeed, we introduce the Weibull-Negative-Binomial (WNB) distribution, which can be used in order to model survival data when the hazard rate function is increasing, decreasing and some non-monotonous shaped. Another advantage of the proposed model is that it has some distributions commonly used in lifetime analysis as particular cases. Moreover, the proposed model includes as special cases some of the well-know cure rate models discussed in the literature. We consider a frequentist analysis for parameter estimation of a WNB model with cure rate. Then, we derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and present some ways to perform global influence analysis. Finally, the methodology is illustrated on a medical data.     

对手机媒体的传播学思考

手机媒体是一种继报纸、广播、电视、网络四大媒体之后出现的、以手机为载体的媒体,手机媒体传播的特点是即时的大众传播和人际传播的结合,我们可以称之为"人际大众传播"。本文认为,作为"跨媒体"时代信息传播的重要成员,手机媒体对大众传播的广泛参与,优化了传播过程,弥补了以往大众传播的缺陷,同时也打破了主流媒体原有的传播思路与格局,对主流媒体产生了极大的影响。     

Comparing measures of general and abdominal adiposity as predictors of blood pressure in college students

Objective: To compare anthropometric measures of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), and sagittal abdominal diameter (SAD) as predictors of blood pressure in college students. Participants: Students (N = 116) were recruited from November 2012 to May 2014 at an urban university and rural community colleges. Methods: Students underwent a brief physical examination during which anthropometric measures were obtained and blood pressure was measured. Covariates were measured using self-reported questionnaires. Hierarchical multiple linear regressions were used for the data analysis. Results: All anthropometric measures were predictive of systolic (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP). WC was the strongest predictor of SBP (β = .582, p < .01) explaining an additional 3–4% of the variance than BMI, WHtR, or SAD. The measures were similar in predicting DBP. WC predicted SBP independent of BMI. Conclusions: Clinicians should consider using WC to assess the risk for hypertension in college students.     

Evaluation of the parameters of su by rational fractions

A rational fraction approximation is given for a function of one of the parameters defining Johnson's S_UError assessment for a segment of the domain of validity shows remarkable accuracy.     

思想政治教育在高校群体性事件中作用的审视*

在新旧体制转轨过程中凸显出来的各种社会矛盾和问题，已影响了高校的和谐与稳定，同时高等教育改革的不断深入，也暴露出许多问题，导致高校群体性事件呈现多发态势，严重影响了高校正常的教学秩序及校园的安定团结。加大对大学生思想政治教育的力度，提高其政治思想素质，可有效地预防和减少群体性事件的发生。     

岩体变形参数的应力状态效应研究

岩体力学参数存在随应力状态不同而变化的特性，称为应力状态效应。岩体力学特性的实测值具有空间场分布特征，分析表明地应力（或围压）的有规律变化是造成岩体力学参数空间变化的主要原因。考虑到实测地应力多具有较大的离散型，尝试利用反演方法获取地应力场信息，通过多元回归分析得到实测岩体变形参数与地应力的经验关系，以研究岩体变形参数的应力状态效应。通过一工程实例研究：得到地下厂房区域的岩体变形模量为16 GPa左右，与反演分析结果也比较符合；通过应力状态效应研究得到的岩体变形参数物理场，是一个渐变的物理场模型，是更为符     

大众传媒对当代大学生思想政治教育的消极影响

大众传媒在给大学生思想政治教育带来诸多机遇的同时,也无法避免地对其产生了一定的消极影响:引起教育者主观能动性的降低,使教育内容的权威性被削弱,使受教育者的价值观多元化,教育效果弱化。本文试从教育者、受教育者、教育内容、教育环境、教育效果等方面入手,深入剖析大众传媒对大学生思想政治教育的消极影响,力求扬长避短、提出行之有效的应对策略,以便提高大学生思想政治教育的实效性。     

群体性事件中的信息传播流程、节点与心理接受机制

群体性事件是转型期中国较为严重的社会问题,也是公民政治参与、权利救济的一种手段.在群体性事件的发生、发展、激化与平息的整个过程中,群体信息传播起着非常重要的作用,其传播流程大致经历"议论纷纷"的群体意识唤醒、"流言四起"的群体意识形成和"谣言惑众"的暴力行为发生三个阶段;在此期间,诸如暴力、权贵、女性等元素成为最能刺激群体、引起群众共鸣并激励民众参与的"信息节点",严重影响着事件的发展进程.群体心理的接受机制则表现为以正义感、成就感、自我替代为特征的主动参与动机,以成见与刻板印象为特征的群体意识心像和以焦虑、愤懑、激昂递进的情绪激化过程.     

从《鄂豫边区民运工作史》看党的群众工作

《鄂豫边区民运工作史》反映出的中国共产党群众路线的组织形式、工作方法、实现路径等,体现了群众路线的具体性,对当今中国特色的社会主义建设事业有着重要的启迪和借鉴作用。