A latent variable model for analyzing mixed longitudinal (k,l)-inflated count and ordinal responses

A random effects model for analyzing mixed longitudinal count and ordinal data is presented where the count response is inflated in two points (k and l) and an (k,l)-Inflated Power series distribution is used as its distribution. A full likelihood-based approach is used to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of parameters of the model. For data with non-ignorable missing values models with probit model for missing mechanism are used.The dependence between longitudinal sequences of responses and inflation parameters are investigated using a random effects approach. Also, to investigate the correlation between mixed ordinal and count responses of each individuals at each time, a shared random effect is used. In order to assess the performance of the model, a simulation study is performed for a case that the count response has (k,l)-Inflated Binomial distribution. Performance comparisons of count-ordinal random effect model, Zero-Inflated ordinal random effects model and (k,l)-Inflated ordinal random effects model are also given. The model is applied to a real social data set from the first two waves of the national longitudinal study of adolescent to adult health (Add Health study). In this data set, the joint responses are the number of days in a month that each individual smoked as the count response and the general health condition of each individual as the ordinal response. For the count response there is incidence of excess values of 0 and 30.     

Confidence interval estimation and hypothesis testing for a common correlation coefficient

Several procedures have been proposed for testing the hypothesis that all off-diagonal elements of the correlation matrix of a multivariate normal distribution are equal. If the hypothesis of equal correlation can be accepted, it is then of interest to estimate and perhaps test hypotheses for the common correlation. In this paper, two versions of five different test statistics are compared via simulation in terms of adequacy of the normal approximation, coverage probabilities of confidence intervals, control of Type I error, and power. The results indicate that two test statistics based on the average of the Fisher z-transforms of the sample correlations should be used in most cases. A statistic based on the sample eigenvalues also gives reasonable results for confidence intervals and lower-tailed tests.     

中华武术散打之局部力量与整体力量解读

散打之力量是散打运动中除运动技术等要素外,非常重要的另一要素,散打之力量在运动中表现出两个方面的应用,即散打之局部力量和整体力量;散打之局部力量和整体力量在比赛中交替展现,正是由于散打之局部力量和整体力量的不停变换使用及不同情况下各种力量共同作用,运动员才能在比赛中赢得胜利。散打之局部力量与整体力量的科学应用与训练不仅塑造了练习者完美的运动身形,而且培养了个人不凡的运动气质,是一项完美的体育运动。     

高兹资本主义核电技术批判理论及其当代价值

高兹是法国当代左翼生态政治思想家,他以法国发展核电技术为例,从技术、经济、生态和安全方面对资本主义使用的核电技术进行了深刻的分析和批判。他指出核电技术是"资本的圈套",符合资本主义积累逻辑,是资本主义专制的政治选择,社会生态重建的基本前提是工具转换。高兹的核电批判理论为我们审视目前的能源发展战略提供了一种新的理论视野,他对节约能源以及采用新技术发展新型能源的思考,对建设生态文明具有重要的价值。     

Comparing diagnostic tests: test of hypothesis for likelihood ratios

Likelihood ratios (LRs) are used to characterize the efficiency of diagnostic tests. In this paper, we use the classical weighted least squares (CWLS) test procedure, which was originally used for testing the homogeneity of relative risks, for comparing the LRs of two or more binary diagnostic tests. We compare the performance of this method with the relative diagnostic likelihood ratio (rDLR) method and the diagnostic likelihood ratio regression (DLRReg) approach in terms of size and power, and we observe that the performances of CWLS and rDLR are the same when used to compare two diagnostic tests, while DLRReg method has higher type I error rates and powers. We also examine the performances of the CWLS and DLRReg methods for comparing three diagnostic tests in various sample size and prevalence combinations. On the basis of Monte Carlo simulations, we conclude that all of the tests are generally conservative and have low power, especially in settings of small sample size and low prevalence.     

城市文化软实力构建的“网都”范式

当前全球数字网络化的发展浪潮和历史背景下,"网都"型文化中心城市建设成为转变城市文化发展方式、提升城市文化软实力的新的战略路径和城市设计愿景。城市发展的"网都"形态具有多元文化范式,要根据不同城市的特点和文化基础,推进网络媒介城市(media city)、网络文化产业高地、网络文化名城、互联网总部基地、文化科技融合的创新引领中心、网络文化宜居之都、互联网枢纽城市等不同类型的"网都"建设。不同的网都范型(paradigm)关切到城市文化软实力的不同层面,存在着从硬文化实力向软文化实力的渐变和过渡谱系;既可以单独构建特色网络文化城市的核心性格与差异化竞争力,也可以综合构建城市文化软实力的体系化架构。     

Strangers within? Russian-speakers’ migration from Latvia to London: a study in power geometry and intersectionality

ABSTRACT

This paper seeks to contribute to debates on ethnic identification and migration through a focus on a specific group – Russian-speakers from the Baltic state of Latvia who have migrated to the UK. Twenty-six interviews with members of this group were gathered in London and the wider metropolitan area during 2012 and 2014. Russian-speakers represent uniquely combined configurations of ‘the other within’: in most cases, they are EU citizens with full rights; yet, some still hold non-citizens’ passports of Latvia. While in Latvian politics Russian-speakers are framed as ‘others’ whose identities are shaped by the influence of Russia, interview findings confirm that they do not display belonging to contemporary Russia. However, London is the ‘third space’ – a multicultural European metropolis – which provides new opportunities for negotiating ethnic identification. Against the background of triple ‘alienation’ (from Latvia, from Russia and from the UK), we analyse how ethnicity is narrated intersectionally with other categories such as age and class. The findings show that Russian-speaking migrants from Latvia mobilise their Europeanness and Russianness beyond alienating notions of (ethno)national identity. The paper also demonstrates that being open to ethnicity as a category of practice helps us towards a progressive conceptualisation of often overlooked dimensions of integration of intra-EU linguistic ‘others’.     

‘Having to say everyday … I’m not black enough … I’m not white enough’. Discourses of Aboriginality in the Australian education context

This paper interrogates discourses of Aboriginality about, and by, early career Aboriginal teachers as they negotiate their emergent professional identity in specific Australian school contexts. These discourses position the respondents via their ethnic and cultural background and intersect with self-positioning. This relates to the desire to be positioned as teacher rather than (only) as an ‘Aboriginal’ teacher. Consequently, the over-determination of Aboriginality includes such suppositions as the ‘think-look-do’ Aboriginality with a ‘natural’ connection to community, the ‘good’ Aboriginal teacher who fixes Aboriginal ‘problems’, the Aboriginal teacher as ‘Other’, and [the notion that] ‘Aboriginal work’ as easy, not real work and peripheral to core business. Through qualitative methodology, eleven Aboriginal teachers from the University of Sydney were interviewed. They were able to construct stories of early career teaching and the data was analysed to explore how the participants interpreted, accepted and/or resisted various discourses in their efforts to be agentic and resilient and to make a difference for the Aboriginal students they teach.     

Community Resilience and Decision Theory Challenges for Catastrophic Events

Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd‐following, group‐think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard‐to‐envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building “disaster‐resilient” communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events.     

Monte Carlo comparison of five exponentiality tests using different entropy estimates

The paper studies five entropy tests of exponentiality using five statistics based on different entropy estimates. Critical values for various sample sizes determined by means of Monte Carlo simulations are presented for each of the test statistics. By simulation, we compare the power of these five tests for various alternatives and sample sizes.