转型时期信贷契约的软约束——基于多重治理的思考

针对我国转型时期信贷契约的软约束问题,从信贷合约多重治理角度探讨了转型时期机会主义与多重成本、交易成本结构与契约选择之间的关系,可能发现,不同契约制度安排下的交易成本结构是不同的,其中关系和计划指令契约安排常常会替代或软化由法律强制实施的契约治理,导致所谓的"信贷契约软约束",从而加大信贷履约成本.商业银行为有效地阻止合约中的违约行为,不得不同时寻求多重契约治理的保护.因此,由关系契约、命令计划和法律强制实施构成的多重治理制度无疑会提高合约的交易成本,这是导致我国信贷契约软约束的主要原因.     

学报编辑部办公自动化体系建构与利弊辨析

探讨建构高校学报编辑部办公自动化体系的必要性、可行性,分析该体系的主要组成部分,指出建立办公自动化体系的优势与制约其发展的因素,并就其可操作性问题提出一些对策与建议。     

A multiple-item budget-constraint newsboy problem with a reservation policy

In contrast to the classical newsboy-style problem, this paper develops a model for the multiple-item budget-constraint newsboy problem considering a reservation policy to meet marketing needs. A discount rate is provided to those customers who are willing to make a reservation. In addition to the demand from the original customers, extra demand is also included in the model due to the motivation of the discount rate. A solution algorithm, namely the MCR algorithm, is proposed to solve the problem. The proposed algorithm can actually be considered as a generalization of the classical newsboy-style problem. The MCR algorithm not only provides a business unit with the optimal order quantity, but also the discount rate necessary to achieve the maximal total expected profit under a limited budget. From the illustrated example, it is shown that the expected profit from the proposed model is greater than that from the classical model, due to the consideration of reservations, even though the budget constraint is tight. The increase in the expected profit could be treated as an information value from the willingness function. Although the proposed model is developed for multiple-item problems, it also can be applied to single-item ones. From the sensitivity analysis, the application of the single-item problem to the proposed model can still obtain greater expected profit than the classical model under different budgetary levels.     

阜新民营经济发展融资约束问题及对策

针对阜新市民营企业融资约束现状进行调研,探讨了融资约束对阜新市民营企业的影响,寻求造成阜新民营企业融资约束的原因,从企业自身、金融组织和政府职能三方面入手,建立民营企业融资策略,以期实现民营企业价值的最大化和阜新民营经济的快速发展。     

保兑仓融资模式下数量折扣契约的参数设计简

文章选择两阶段资金约束型供应链为研究对象,以零售商运营资金不足作为前提条件,构建基于保兑仓模式的供应链融资模型,研究采用数量折扣契约时供应链的协调情况.结合中国企业的实际,构建保兑仓模式下银行利率模型,应用Stackelberg博弈模型求解出银行、制造商、零售商各自决策的最优参数,通过集中决策与分散决策对比发现,无数量折扣时,分散决策不能实现供应链的完美协调;有数量折扣时,制造商选取的折扣点和折扣量在一定条件下,可以使零售商和制造商的收益同时增加,达到供应链的完美协调,即实现改进供应链整体运作绩效的同时达到互惠共赢的目标.     

Isotontic regression for interval censored survival data using an e-m algorithm

This paper develops a nonparametric model of the relationship between survival S and a dichotomous random variable X under the order constraint that P(X=1|S=s) is increasing (or decreasing) with s. The estimation procedure, called isotonic regression, has been studied in some depth for the case of uncensored data, but we give a methodology which is appropriate in the more general context of right, left, and interval censored data. An E-M Algorithm (Dempster et. al., 1977) is used for maximum likelihood estimation.     

Supply Constraint from Earthquakes in Japan in Input–Output Analysis

Disasters often cause exogenous flow damage (i.e., the [hypothetical] difference in economic scale with and without a disaster in a certain period) to production (“supply constraint”). However, input-output (IO) analysis (IOA) cannot usually consider it, because the Leontief quantity model (LQM) assumes that production is endogenous; the Ghosh quantity model (GQM) is considered implausible; and the Leontief price model (LPM) and the Ghosh price model (GPM) assume that quantity is fixed. This study proposes to consider a supply constraint in the LPM, introducing the price elasticity of demand. This study uses the loss of social surplus (SS) as a damage estimation because production (sales) is less informative as a damage index than profit (margin); that is, production can be any amount if without considering profit, and it does not tell exactly how much profit is lost for each supplier (upstream sector) and buyer (downstream sector). As a model application, this study examines Japan's largest five earthquakes from 1995 to 2017 and the Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) in March 2011. The worst earthquake at the peak tends to increase price by 10–20% and decrease SS by 20–30%, when compared with the initial month's prices/production. The worst damage tends to last eight months at most, accumulating 0.5-month-production damage (i.e., the sum of [hypothetical] differences in SS with and without an earthquake [for eight months] is 50% of the initial month production). Meanwhile, the GEJE in the five prefectures had cumulatively, a 25-month-production damage until the temporal recovery at the 37th month.     

全球价值链背景下加工贸易企业升级路径分析

金融危机以来国际贸易保护主义色彩浓郁，中国内部粗放型经济增长方式存在一定的不可持续性和人口红利开始逐渐消失，中国加工贸易嵌入发达国家主导的全球价值链低附加值和低生产率问题引起了学者的注意。随着外部贸易环境、国内新常态要素禀赋结构的变化和深化供给侧结构性改革的需要，推动加工贸易企业升级已经成为中国经济结构调整的一个重要部分。通过分析中国加工贸易的起源、发展和现状，描述全球价值链背景下加工贸易的若干特征和“低端锁定”问题，引出了融资约束对企业经营决策、出口行为以及企业全球价值链上地位的影响，并围绕以生产过程、产品升级和功能升级为主的产业内升级和以劳动密集型向技术密集型转变为特征的产业间升级两个角度，提出了中国加工贸易企业在全球价值链上攀升的路径。研究认为，着重强调人力资本积累、本土企业技术外溢的吸收能力以及自主研发能力的培养，同时结合国际产能合作和“一带一路”倡议等现实背景，实现东西双向开放，塑造以我为主的包容性的区域价值链和国内价值链等，是中国加工贸易企业升级的路径和新机遇。     

Monotone B-Spline Smoothing for a Generalized Linear Model Response

Various methods have been proposed for smoothing under the monotonicity constraint. We review the literature and implement an approach of monotone smoothing with B-splines for a generalized linear model response. The approach is expressed as a quadratic programming problem and is easily solved using the statistical software R. In a simulation study, we find that the approach performs better than other approaches with much faster computation time. The approach can also be used for smoothing under other shape constraints or mixed constraints. Supplementary materials of the appendices and R code to implement the developed approach is available online.     

企业投资、现金流与产能利用率

研究行业产能对企业投资现金流敏感性的影响,结果发现：相对于国有企业,行业发展对非国有企业投资现金流敏感性影响更大。当行业产能利用率较高时,相对于国有企业,非国有企业的投资现金流敏感性较高;反之,当行业产能利用率较低时,相对于国有企业,非国有企业的投资现金流敏感性较低。行业产能利用率下降,相对于高融资约束,国有企业融资约束较低时投资现金流敏感性相对较大。