Discovering hidden statistical issues through individual-level models in ecological studies

ABSTRACT

In ecological studies, individual inference is made based on results from ecological models. Interpretation of the results requires caution since ecological analysis on group level may not hold in the individual level within the groups, leading to ecological fallacy. Using an ecological regression example for analyzing voting behaviors, we highlight that the explicit use of individual-level models is crucial in understanding the results of ecological studies. In particular, we clarify three relevant statistical issues for each individual-level models: assessment of the uncertainty of parameter estimates obtained from a wrong model, the use of shrinkage estimation method for simultaneous estimation of many parameters, and the necessity of sensitivity analysis rather than adhering to one seemingly most compelling assumption.     

Dynamics of Young Children's Socially Adaptive Resolutions of Peer Conflict

How do young children negotiate conflicts with peers that result in mutually beneficial resolution and peaceful interaction after conflict? A few studies suggest that when children use conciliatory strategies in conflict, socially adaptive outcomes are more likely to be achieved. The present study explores the relative associations of types of children's conciliatory conflict resolution strategies (i.e., prosocial, compliance‐oriented, solution‐oriented, and verbal clarification/apology) with conflict outcomes to contribute to knowledge of the discrete behaviors that might have salience for conflict resolution training. Socially adaptive conflict outcomes were expected to strongly relate to children's resolution strategies of a prosocial nature as well as to teacher or peer interventions encouraging prosocial behavior or empathy. Sampled conflicts (N = 521) were collected through field observations of 107 ethnically/racially and socioeconomically diverse four‐ to seven‐year‐old children. Logistic regression analyses with bootstrap‐based inference suggested that children's prosocial behaviors in conflict were most strongly tied to mutually beneficial resolution and peaceful postconflict interaction, when controlling for relevant covariates. Other conciliatory strategies varied in their association with socially adaptive outcomes. The hypothesis regarding third‐party interventions encouraging prosociability or empathy could not be examined due to infrequent occurrence. Insights for future research on children's socially adaptive conflict negotiations are discussed.     

Gambling-related problems across life domains: an exploratory study of non-treatment-seeking weekly gamblers

This study uses content analysis to provide a qualitative exploration of how life roles are affected by frequent (i.e. at least weekly) gambling, based on in-depth interviews with a community sample of 161 non-treatment-seeking frequent gamblers. Over half (51.6%) of the participants indicated problems associated with gambling and 131 examples were identified. The majority of problems were relational (50.4%), followed by financial (19.8%), work (13.7%), and school related (8.4%). Slightly less than half of participants (41.7%) reported losses due to gambling and 92 examples were provided. The most frequently reported loss was identity related (54.3%), which included self-esteem/shame (38.0%), estrangement from family (34.0%), estrangement from friends (16.0%), and estrangement from work colleagues (6.0%). Additional losses included health (29.3%) and financial (8.7%). Almost two-thirds of participants (64.6%) reported difficulty concentrating in family (18.4%), work (16.8%), and school (9.6%) activities, whereas general concentration problems comprised an additional 48.8% of the examples provided. Half of participants (49.1%) discussed behavioral withdrawal due to gambling, which included withdrawal from work (44.3%), relationships (24.5%), school (15.1%), and personal (6.6%) activities. These findings paint a complex picture of how gambling interferes with different life roles for some frequent gamblers, identifying important areas for future research and practice.     

“We’re Disgusted With Queers,not Fearful of Them”: The Interrelationships Among Disgust,Gay Men’s Sexual Behavior,and Homonegativity

ABSTRACT

Using a combination of personal reflections, published literature, and original empirical research, we argue that the disgust triggered by gay men’s sexual practices (specifically, anal intercourse) is a critical, though overlooked, contributor to heterosexual men and women’s homonegativity (i.e., negative attitudes and behaviors directed toward men who are or are perceived to be gay). We conclude our article by articulating several directions for future inquiry that we believe will advance current understanding of prejudice and discrimination directed toward gay men.     

The effects of tact training on stereotypic vocalizations in children with autism

This study was a systematic extension of Karmali, Greer, Nuzzulo-Gomez, Ross, and Rivera-Valdes (2005) and Ahearn, Clark, MacDonald, and Chung (2007). We investigated the effects of a tact correction procedure on stereotypic vocalizations in 4 children diagnosed with autism who ranged in age from 6 to 16 years. Participants had limited vocal verbal repertoires and were primarily dependent on prompts for the emission of appropriate vocalizations. A multiple-baseline design across participants was used. Data were collected on instances of stereotypic vocalizations and independent tacts during baseline conditions and on instances of stereotypic vocalizations, independent tacts, and echoic-tacts during intervention. Procedural integrity and social validity data were also obtained. The results indicated a decrease in stereotypic vocalizations for 3 of the 4 participants and a slight increase in appropriate vocal verbal behavior (i.e., tacting) for all participants. The study provides support for the use of tact correction procedures to decrease stereotypic vocalizations and increase appropriate vocalizations in children with autism.     

Best-worst multi-criteria decision-making method: Some properties and a linear model

The Best Worst Method (BWM) is a multi-criteria decision-making method that uses two vectors of pairwise comparisons to determine the weights of criteria. First, the best (e.g. most desirable, most important), and the worst (e.g. least desirable, least important) criteria are identified by the decision-maker, after which the best criterion is compared to the other criteria, and the other criteria to the worst criterion. A non-linear minmax model is then used to identify the weights such that the maximum absolute difference between the weight ratios and their corresponding comparisons is minimized. The minmax model may result in multiple optimal solutions. Although, in some cases, decision-makers prefer to have multiple optimal solutions, in other cases they prefer to have a unique solution. The aim of this paper is twofold: firstly, we propose using interval analysis for the case of multiple optimal solutions, in which we show how the criteria can be weighed and ranked. Secondly, we propose a linear model for BWM, which is based on the same philosophy, but yields a unique solution.     

Social Psychology,Consumer Culture and Neoliberal Political Economy

Consumer culture and neoliberal political economy are often viewed by social psychologists as topics reserved for anthropologists, economists, political scientists and sociologists. This paper takes an alternative view arguing that social psychology needs to better understand these two intertwined institutions as they can both challenge and provide a number of important insights into social psychological theories of self‐identity and their related concepts. These include personality traits, self‐esteem, social comparisons, self‐enhancement, impression management, self‐regulation and social identity. To illustrate, we examine how elements of consumer culture and neoliberal political economy intersect with social psychological concepts of self‐identity through three main topics: ‘the commodification of self‐identity’, ‘social categories, culture and power relations’ and the ‘governing of self‐regulating consumers’. In conclusion, we recommend a decommodified approach to research with the aim of producing social psychological knowledge that avoids becoming enmeshed with consumer culture and neoliberalism.     

Grandparental Involvement and South African Adolescents’ Psychological Well-Being

This study was designed to explore the grandparent-grandchild relationship from the perspective of South African adolescents, and to investigate whether grandparental involvement is independently associated with adolescents’ psychological well-being. Data were collected from 204 adolescents (mean age = 13.69) using a school-based survey. Results revealed high levels of contact between grandparents and grandchildren, although involvement varied depending on grandparent, grandchild, and family characteristics. Grandparental involvement was significantly associated with more adolescent prosocial behavior, independent of parental involvement. The findings suggest a unique association between grandparental involvement and prosocial behavior that is robust across different cultural contexts.     

Total Economic Consequences of an Influenza Outbreak in the United States

Pandemic influenza represents a serious threat not only to the population of the United States, but also to its economy. In this study, we analyze the total economic consequences of potential influenza outbreaks in the United States for four cases based on the distinctions between disease severity and the presence/absence of vaccinations. The analysis is based on data and parameters on influenza obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and the general literature. A state‐of‐the‐art economic impact modeling approach, computable general equilibrium, is applied to analyze a wide range of potential impacts stemming from the outbreaks. This study examines the economic impacts from changes in medical expenditures and workforce participation, and also takes into consideration different types of avoidance behavior and resilience actions not previously fully studied. Our results indicate that, in the absence of avoidance and resilience effects, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in a loss in U.S. GDP of $25.4 billion, but that vaccination could reduce the losses to $19.9 billion. When behavioral and resilience factors are taken into account, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in GDP losses of $45.3 billion without vaccination and $34.4 billion with vaccination. These results indicate the importance of including a broader set of causal factors to achieve more accurate estimates of the total economic impacts of not just pandemic influenza but biothreats in general. The results also highlight a number of actionable items that government policymakers and public health officials can use to help reduce potential economic losses from the outbreaks.