基于突变理论的财险公司财务风险度量

财险公司的经营过程,面临着内部和外部多种不确定性因素的影响,这些因素的变化,特别是突发性的变化,都会导致财险公司财务风险的变动。财险公司财务风险的变化包括渐变和突变两种变化状态,其中突变具有跳跃性和不连续性。本文引用突变理论,构建以突变理论为基础的财险公司财务风险度量模型,最后结合可拓方法筛选出的各财险公司不同的财务指标体系,利用突变理论中的突变级数法,对22家财险公司2009年的财务风险进行了度量。     

Analysis of progression-free survival in oncology trials: some common statistical issues

With the advent of ever more effective second and third line cancer treatments and the growing use of 'crossover' trial designs in oncology, in which patients switch to the alternate randomized treatment upon disease progression, progression-free survival (PFS) is an increasingly important endpoint in oncologic drug development. However, several concerns exist regarding the use of PFS as a basis to compare treatments. Unlike survival, the exact time of progression is unknown, so progression times might be over-estimated and, consequently, bias may be introduced when comparing treatments. Further, it is not uncommon for randomized therapy to be stopped prior to progression being documented due to toxicity or the initiation of additional anti-cancer therapy; in such cases patients are frequently not followed further for progression and, consequently, are right-censored in the analysis. This article reviews these issues and concludes that concerns relating to the exact timing of progression are generally overstated, with analysis techniques and simple alternative endpoints available to either remove bias entirely or at least provide reassurance via supportive analyses that bias is not present. Further, it is concluded that the regularly recommended manoeuvre to censor PFS time at dropout due to toxicity or upon the initiation of additional anti-cancer therapy is likely to favour the more toxic, less efficacious treatment and so should be avoided whenever possible.     

The application of bespoke spending functions in group‐sequential designs and the effect of delayed treatment switching in survival trials

For a group‐sequential trial with two pre‐planned analyses, stopping boundaries can be calculated using a simple SAS? programme on the basis of the asymptotic bivariate normality of the interim and final test statistics. Given the simplicity and transparency of this approach, it is appropriate for researchers to apply their own bespoke spending function as long as the rate of alpha spend is pre‐specified. One such application could be an oncology trial where progression free survival (PFS) is the primary endpoint and overall survival (OS) is also assessed, both at the same time as the analysis of PFS and also later following further patient follow‐up. In many circumstances it is likely, if PFS is significantly extended, that the protocol will be amended to allow patients in the control arm to start receiving the experimental regimen. Such an eventuality is likely to result in the diminution of any effect on OS. It is shown that spending a greater proportion of alpha at the first analysis of OS, using either Pocock or bespoke boundaries, will maintain and in some cases result in greater power given a fixed number of events. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

矛盾·对立·冲突—解读《黑暗的心》进程中不稳定性的叙事特色

运用詹姆斯·费伦的修辞叙事理论，从3个方面对约瑟夫·康拉德的《黑暗的心》叙事进程得以建立的基本因素之一“进程中的不稳定性”的叙事特色进行解读，为从一种新的视角去欣赏该作品提供基础。     

Two arguments for 'covert methods' in social research

In some 'covert' participant-observation studies, social researchers defend their omission of informed consent on the basis of a need to protect subjects from apprehension, nervousness, or even criminal prosecution. In other instances, researchers contend that deception is rampant in society, and that their methods are no more immoral than the behaviour that ordinarily prevails. These defenses of covert methods fail to appreciate the range of risks that may be involved, and in the latter case, fail to show that these methods are in fact morally indistinguishable from the 'deception' that people typically engage in. Ultimately, these proposed defenses of covert methods succeed only in arousing greater concern about informed consent in social research, and the researcher's privilege in bypassing it.     

Which women stop at one child in Australia?

The decline in fertility in Australia in the 1990s reflected both decreased first-order birth rates and decreased second-order birth rates (Kippen 2004). Whilst childlessness has been studied extensively, little attention has been paid to the progression from one to two children. This study analyses which women stop at one child using data from 1,809 parous 40–54 year olds from Wave 1 of the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey. Important early lifecourse predictors of whether a woman stops her childbearing at one child are shown to be a woman s country of birth, highest level and type of schooling, and her father s occupation. A woman s marital status and her age at the time of the first birth are also shown to be significant predictors of her likelihood of not progressing to a second birth. The causes of trends over time are discussed.     

目的-意图原则对电视广告的语用解释力

电视广告中不乏各种各样的隐蔽性交际。由于电视广告交际最为明显的特点是“单向交际”,因此,目的-意图原则对电视广告交际的语用探讨很有解释力,可运用到传递和推导电视广告语境延伸和电视广告效果中。     

用孩次递进比模拟“全面二孩”政策调整初期的生育行为--以湖北省为例

以2014年湖北省卫生和计划生育委员会提供的包括“单独”、“双独”方面的数据为基础,描述了生育政策调整下被压抑的生育潜能释放的规律性和用孩次递进比的方法预测“全面二孩”政策调整初期的生育行为,与意愿分析方法相互比照,丰富了当下生育政策下生育行为预测研究。从分析结果可以看出,假定2016年“全面二孩”生育政策调整,湖北省第一年内会新增二孩出生量52621人,占湖北省2014年总出生量的7?41％;三年内最低会新增139262人的二孩生育量。城乡对比发现,农村新增二孩生育占到将近六成,且由抢生而导致的堆积主要集中在农村,40岁后的高龄抢生情况不严重。     

女性人口文化程度与其生育水平的定量分析研究

本文对女性人口文化程度与其平均活产子女数、总和孩次递进率以及初婚年龄与其生育水平间的关系进行了较为全面而深入的定量分析, 并得到反映其相关程度的定量关系式, 从而揭示出女性人口文化程度对其生育水平所具有的重大影响。     

Natural cubic splines for the analysis of Alzheimer's clinical trials

Mixed model repeated measures (MMRM) is the most common analysis approach used in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease and other progressive diseases measured with continuous outcomes over time. The model treats time as a categorical variable, which allows an unconstrained estimate of the mean for each study visit in each randomized group. Categorizing time in this way can be problematic when assessments occur off-schedule, as including off-schedule visits can induce bias, and excluding them ignores valuable information and violates the intention to treat principle. This problem has been exacerbated by clinical trial visits which have been delayed due to the COVID19 pandemic. As an alternative to MMRM, we propose a constrained longitudinal data analysis with natural cubic splines that treats time as continuous and uses test version effects to model the mean over time. Compared to categorical-time models like MMRM and models that assume a proportional treatment effect, the spline model is shown to be more parsimonious and precise in real clinical trial datasets, and has better power and Type I error in a variety of simulation scenarios.