明代男女比例的统计分析——根据地方志数据的分析

男女失衡是当前中国面临的一大社会问题,对于未来的发展有着重大的影响。对这一问题进行历史角度的分析无疑会对我们破解难题有所帮助。本文主要是对中国明代男女比例情况的研究。根据地方志上遗留的男女人口的统计数据,笔者计算了各地的男女比例,并分别对基本情况、变化过程、未成年人男女比例三个方面进行简单的统计分析。通过这一初步研究,笔者试图把握明代男女比例的大致情况和发展趋势。从统计结果来看,明代中国普遍存在男女比例失衡的问题,并已经达到了非常严峻的程度。     

菲茨杰拉德创作能力的变迁——基于词汇测度的统计分析

传统上,不同评论者对同一作家作品的好恶往往会导致对作家创作能力截然不同的评价,这种主观定性评判并没有考虑作品本身的内在特质。计算语言学发现幂律分布在各类文本的词汇测度中具有普遍性,这为定量刻画文学作品的内在特质提供了统计手段。因为作家的创作能力不是一成不变的,不同创作时期的作品反映了作家创作能力的波动,为检验这一论断,以菲茨杰拉德的四部小说为例,对包括类符形符比、词汇增长率和词汇相对熵等在内的词汇测度进行统计分析,发现这三个测度与文中的形符数之间服从幂律关系。故提出一种计算作家创作能力的新测度以及比较其创作能力变化的新方法。菲茨杰拉德作品的实证分析表明：该测度不仅能够有力地印证现有的定性评论观点,而且还能够有效地反映作家创作能力的巅峰与低谷状态。     

Modified inference about the mean of the exponential distribution using moving extreme ranked set sampling

The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and the likelihood ratio test (LRT) will be considered for making inference about the scale parameter of the exponential distribution in case of moving extreme ranked set sampling (MERSS). The MLE and LRT can not be written in closed form. Therefore, a modification of the MLE using the technique suggested by Maharota and Nanda (Biometrika 61:601–606, 1974) will be considered and this modified estimator will be used to modify the LRT to get a test in closed form for testing a simple hypothesis against one sided alternatives. The same idea will be used to modify the most powerful test (MPT) for testing a simple hypothesis versus a simple hypothesis to get a test in closed form for testing a simple hypothesis against one sided alternatives. Then it appears that the modified estimator is a good competitor of the MLE and the modified tests are good competitors of the LRT using MERSS and simple random sampling (SRS).     

Robust tests for the common principal components model

When dealing with several populations, the common principal components (CPC) model assumes equal principal axes but different variances along them. In this paper, a robust log-likelihood ratio statistic allowing to test the null hypothesis of a CPC model versus no restrictions on the scatter matrices is introduced. The proposal plugs into the classical log-likelihood ratio statistic robust scatter estimators. Using the same idea, a robust log-likelihood ratio and a robust Wald-type statistic for testing proportionality against a CPC model are considered. Their asymptotic distributions under the null hypothesis and their partial influence functions are derived. A small simulation study allows to compare the behavior of the classical and robust tests, under normal and contaminated data.     

The Joint Distribution of the Sum and the Maximum of IID Exponential Random Variables

The authors establish the joint distribution of the sum X and the maximum Y of IID exponential random variables. They derive exact formuli describing the random vector (X, Y), including its joint PDF, CDF, and other characteristics; marginal and conditional distributions; moments and related parameters; and stochastic representations leading to further properties of infinite divisibility and self-decomposability. The authors also discuss parameter estimation and include an example from climatology that illustrates the modeling potential of this new bivariate model.     

Reflections on Changes in the Library and Serials Literature

Abstract

Johnson describes changes in library journal literature topics over the past one hundred years, with a focus on the period between her first Balance Point column in 2003 and this one, her last. She reminisces on her experience as a Balance Point column editor.     

Rank test statistics for umbrella alternatives

This paper proposes an optimal rank test procedure for testing an umbrella alternative when the peak of the umbrella is known. It is referred to as maximin efficient linear rank test. Also when the peak of the umbrella is unknown, a test procedure is proposed and its performance is discussed.     

Dependence Estimation Over a Finite Bivariate Failure Time Region

This articleconcerns nonparametric estimation of association between bivariatefailure times. In the presence of independent right censoring,the support for failure time variates may be restricted and measuresof dependence over a finite failure time region may be of particularinterest. To this end, the reciprocal cross ratio function, weightedby the bivariate failure time density, is proposed as a summarymeasure of dependence over a failure time region. This `relativerisk' estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptoticallynormally distributed, with consistent bootstrap variance estimator.A finite-region version of Kendall's tau, which is suitable forcensored failure time data, is also proposed, and correspondingasymptotic distribution theory is noted. The accuracy of theseasymptotic approximations is studied in simulations and an illustrationis provided.     

On Shortest k-Edge-Connected Steiner Networks in Metric Spaces

Given a set of points P in a metric space, let l(P) denote the ratio of lengths between the shortest k-edge-connected Steiner network and the shortest k-edge-connected spanning network on P, and let r = inf l(P) P for k 1. In this paper, we show that in any metric space, r 3/4 for k 2, and there exists a polynomial-time -approximation for the shortest k-edge-connected Steiner network, where = 2 for even k and = 2 + 4/(3k) for odd k. In the Euclidean plane, and .     

Hypothesis Testing of Hazard Ratio Parameters in Marginal Models for Multivariate Failure Time Data

Marginal hazard models for multivariate failure time data have been studied extensively in recent literature. However, standard hypothesis test statistics based on the likelihood method are not exactly appropriate for this kind of model. In this paper, extensions of the three commonly used likelihood hypothesis test statistics are discussed. Generalized Wald, generalized score and generalized likelihood ratio tests for hazard ratio parameters in a marginal hazard model for multivariate failure time data are proposed and their asymptotic distributions examined. The finite sample properties of these statistics are studied through simulations. The proposed method is applied to data from Busselton Population Health Surveys.