Policy responses to COVID-19 pandemic waves: Cross-region and cross-sector economic impact

This paper proposes a modelling approach to assess the cross-region and cross-sector economic impacts of the restrictions imposed by governments to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. The nationwide lockdown imposed in Italy during the first wave of the pandemic is used as a benchmark. However, the adopted approach allows an ex-ante assessment of alternative policy responses, in the event of successive pandemic waves, in order to rationalise the policy intervention and reach the best possible compromise between containing the risk of contagion and reducing economic losses. The used approach consists of a non-linear programming model based on a multiregional Input-Output (I-O) table, which guarantees greater flexibility than traditional I-O analysis. It is applied to estimate both direct and indirect losses of GDP and employment produced by alternative policy responses represented by general and differentiated lockdowns. The evidence deriving from the Italian experience shows a sort of learning process through successive waves based on the introduction of increasingly flexible and tailored policy responses to the pandemic.     

基于有限元功率流的桥梁 承轨台轨道结构振动特性研究

用功率流理论从能量的角度研究轨道结构的振动特性，它兼顾了力和速度的相位关系，比传统的以力、位移、加速度和速度等单个指标来衡量振动特性更具有综合性。建立了桥梁 承轨台轨道有限元模型，对其进行谐响应分析，从而得到输入钢轨和承轨台的总功率流，进而评价其振动特性。改变扣件的刚度和阻尼，研究扣件参数的改变对于钢轨和承轨台输入总功率流的影响。     

Socio-demographics,implicit attitudes,explicit attitudes,and sustainable consumption in supermarket shopping

The aim of this research is to examine whether socio-demographics, implicit and explicit attitudes towards the environment predict sustainable consumer behaviour, measured using supermarket loyalty card data. The article uses an Implicit Association Test (IAT) and Likert scales to gauge implicit and explicit attitudes towards sustainable consumption in a real consumer sample, and measures demographic characteristics of participants. Results indicate that level of education is a key predictor of an aggregate measure of sustainable consumption, with a small part of this influence mediated by level of explicit environmental concern for climate change. Econometric modelling shows that explicit and implicit attitudes influence consumer decisions differently in specific food categories. Results, obtained with real consumer data, call into question the accepted socio-demographic profile of the green consumer and help identify conditions under which pro-environmental attitudes predict sustainable consumption.     

How IKEA turned a crisis into an opportunity

In 2013–2014, the IKEA cuddle toy Lufsig was connoted as a symbol of the Chief Executive (CE) of Hong Kong, prompting stakeholders to make negative associations with the corporation. Our study examines how IKEA mediated communication on traditional media and social media to turn this crisis into an opportunity. This study informs corporate communicators and researchers about the integrated utilization of crisis response strategies in a sophisticated crisis situation.     

一种题组反应模型的构建与统计分析

在一般题组反应模型基础上,通过构造题组判别参数,提出了带有题组判别参数的两参数正态卵形题组反应模型。在贝叶斯理论框架下,基于数据扩充技术,使用Gibbs抽样方法,研究了该模型参数估计问题以及该模型的适应性问题,模拟研究表明,在参数返真方面,新提出的模型在一定程度上优于原有相应的项目反应模型和题组反应模型。     

基于免疫应答原理的应急物流响应机制的构建

快速、敏捷、高效的应急物流响应机制的建立，对提高应急物流应对危机的效率具有重要的意义。通过模仿免疫系统的特点、免疫应答过程、免疫机制分别建立了应急物流的防御体系、响应流程和应急响应机制。这对提高应急系统的安全性、规范应急响应的流程、增强应急响应的灵敏度具有重要的意义。     

Avoid falling for a jerk(ette): Effectiveness of the Premarital Interpersonal Choices and Knowledge Program among Emerging Adults

Premarital education may help emerging adults form healthy relationships, but evaluation research is needed, particularly with community samples. We studied emerging adults in the Premarital Interpersonal Choices and Knowledge (PICK) program, using a pre‐ to post‐ and a posttest‐then‐retrospective‐pretest design to examine change in perceived relationship skills, partner selection, relational patterns, and relationship behaviors and attitudes. Mixed models analyses showed that scores for the treatment group (n = 682) increased from pre to post on all four outcomes. Changes in scores for the nonequivalent comparison group (n = 462) were nonsignificant. In addition, significant differences between pre‐ and retrospective prescores demonstrated evidence for response shift bias. The results suggest that the PICK program helps participants increase their knowledge regarding the components of healthy relationship formation.     

Bayesian response adaptive randomization using longitudinal outcomes

The response adaptive randomization (RAR) method is used to increase the number of patients assigned to more efficacious treatment arms in clinical trials. In many trials evaluating longitudinal patient outcomes, RAR methods based only on the final measurement may not benefit significantly from RAR because of its delayed initiation. We propose a Bayesian RAR method to improve RAR performance by accounting for longitudinal patient outcomes (longitudinal RAR). We use a Bayesian linear mixed effects model to analyze longitudinal continuous patient outcomes for calculating a patient allocation probability. In addition, we aim to mitigate the loss of statistical power because of large patient allocation imbalances by embedding adjusters into the patient allocation probability calculation. Using extensive simulation we compared the operating characteristics of our proposed longitudinal RAR method with those of the RAR method based only on the final measurement and with an equal randomization method. Simulation results showed that our proposed longitudinal RAR method assigned more patients to the presumably superior treatment arm compared with the other two methods. In addition, the embedded adjuster effectively worked to prevent extreme patient allocation imbalances. However, our proposed method may not function adequately when the treatment effect difference is moderate or less, and still needs to be modified to deal with unexpectedly large departures from the presumed longitudinal data model. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fitting logistic multilevel models with crossed random effects via Bayesian Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations: a simulation study

Fitting cross-classified multilevel models with binary response is challenging. In this setting a promising method is Bayesian inference through Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA), which performs well in several latent variable models. We devise a systematic simulation study to assess the performance of INLA with cross-classified binary data under different scenarios defined by the magnitude of the variances of the random effects, the number of observations, the number of clusters, and the degree of cross-classification. In the simulations INLA is systematically compared with the popular method of Maximum Likelihood via Laplace Approximation. By an application to the classical salamander mating data, we compare INLA with the best performing methods. Given the computational speed and the generally good performance, INLA turns out to be a valuable method for fitting logistic cross-classified models.     

Equivalence of two tests in varying coefficient partially linear errors in variable model with missing responses

This paper considers two tests on varying coefficient partially linear errors-in-variables models (VCPLM-EV) with missing responses under the linear constraint. The restricted estimator for the parametric component is derived and proven to share asymptotically normal distribution. In order to test the linear constraint, two statistics based on the profile Lagrange multiplier method and the corrected residual sum of squares method respectively, are proposed. It is of interest to obtain that the magnitudes of the two statistics are equal exactly and follow the asymptotical chi-square distribution. This reveals a new type of Wilk’s phenomenon in VCPLM-EV models with missing response. Finally, some numerical examples are carried out to illustrate relevant performances.