Optimal control strategies for dividend payments and capital injections in compound Markov binomial risk model with penalties for deficits

We consider the compound Markov binomial risk model. The company controls the amount of dividends paid to the shareholders as well as the capital injections in order to maximize the cumulative expected discounted dividends minus the discounted capital injections and the discounted penalties for deficits prior to ruin. We show that the optimal value function is the unique solution of an HJB equation, and the optimal control strategy is a two-barriers strategy given the current state of the Markov chain. We obtain some properties of the optimal strategy and the optimal condition for ruining the company. We offer a high-efficiency algorithm for obtaining the optimal strategy and the optimal value function. In addition, we also discuss the optimal control problem under a restriction of bounded dividend rates. Numerical results are provided to illustrate the algorithm and the impact of the penalties.     

现金股利政策与股价崩盘风险——基于股利“替代”模型和“结果”模型之辨析

股价的崩盘严重干扰着我国资本市场的健康有序发展,也损害着投资者利益和公司价值.因此,探寻防范股价崩盘风险的机制具有重要的现实意义.以2007-2013年A股上市公司作为观测样本,实证考察了上市公司现金股利政策对股价崩盘风险的影响.研究发现,现金股利分配倾向与分配水平均与股价崩盘风险显著负相关;以会计稳健性水平作为信息披露质量的替代变量进一步研究后发现,信息披露质量的提升显著增强了现金股利分配与股价崩盘风险之间的敏感性.经验研究结果表明,我国上市公司的现金股利分配是公司治理改善的结果,从而支持了股利的“结果”模型,而非“替代”模型;同时也为现金股利政策与股市风险的相关性研究提供了增量的理论成果和经验证据,研究结论对于完善上市公司的现金股利政策和防范股市风险提供了一定的借鉴意义.     

基于决策树算法的农业上市公司股利分配政策研究

股利分配政策是上市公司对盈利进行分配或留存的决策问题.在大数据时代运用微软商业智能中的决策树算法,可以对农业上市公司的相关财务数据进行深入挖掘.通过决策树规则进行分析,找出农业上市公司股利分配采购影响因素,为农业上市公司制定现金股利分配股利分配政策提供决策依据,也为商业智能工具在企业决策中的运用提供借鉴.     

我国家庭福利政策探究

在人口变迁与社会发展过程中,我国家庭规模逐渐缩小,传统的家庭功能已经受到严重冲击。因此,单纯地依靠家庭能力难以摆脱贫困、医疗、就业等困境。中国的家庭福利政策属于补缺型的家庭福利政策,应当尽快向普惠型和发展型转变：从发挥政府的主导作用,加强事前预防,投资家庭成员,扩大政策受益对象等方面重构家庭福利体系。     

人口红利的经济社会代价与可持续发展

本文分析了人口红利背后的经济社会代价，意在提请人们注意，人口红利是一把双刃剑，在看到人口红利好处的同时，也要洞察其背后的隐患，不能盲目乐观。我们的真正目的不是要事受人口红利，而是要摆脱对它的依赖。只有利用好人口红利期，在人口机会窗关闭前积极求变，才能实现可持续发展。     

透析实施生育保险制度的局势

从社会学视角对实施生育保险制度的必要性进行探讨,分别从宏观(包括人口转变规律、经济体制改革、提高人口素质的需求三个方面)、中观(包括社会支持网络的变迁、保障女性群体地位、保障企业平等竞争三个方面)和微观层面(包括生育观念的转变、生育的风险性、体现女性的生育价值三个方面)进行层层剖析,说明实施和拓宽生育保险制度势在必行。     

美日劳动力素质升级与经济发展对中国的启示

面对中国劳动力素质的快速提升,需要研究什么样的经济结构或产业结构才能更好地与之相匹配,或者说政府与社会需要进行什么样的调整才能更好地利用劳动力素质快速提升所带来的人口红利。为此,考查当美国和日本达到与中国劳动力素质提升水平相当的特定阶段时,其社会经济发展的特点和政府所采取的主要政策,发现美国和日本都具备人力资本快速积累、重视工业技术、政府通过建立社会保障体系或制定产业政策等手段促进经济发展、工人的权利得到提升且工资上涨等特点。这些特点,有一些是中国已经具备的,有一些则对中国未来的发展具有借鉴和指引意义。     

A stochastic version of the malthusian trap model: Consequences for the empirical relationship between economic growth and population growth in LDC's

A stochastic version of the Malthusian trap model relating the growth rate of income per capita to the population growth rate of a given country is described. This model is applied to the a priori evaluation of the cross‐sectional correlation between these two growth rates under two additional assumptions: i) the relations in the model at national levels include country‐specific and time‐invariant random components, and ii) these growth rates are measured with a certain degree of temporal aggregation. It is shown that these two assumptions can explain near‐zero correlations between the two growth rates even if there exist a strongly negative effect of population growth on economic growth. However it is not clear whether these assumptions fully explain such insignificant correlations. Indeed, the implementation of the model is complicated by the structural shifts which are likely to occur in the equations over the course of the demographic transition.     

股权结构与股利政策实证研究综述

从股权结构角度研究股利政策是近年来各国学者研究的热点问题。我国关于股权结构与股利政策关系的实证研究主要集中在股权流通性上,研究表明我国非流通股偏好现金股利,而流通股偏好股票股利。国外研究表明股权集中度与股利支付水平负相关,而我国则相反。关于股权制衡度与股利政策的研究表明,在欧洲,多个大股东的存在有利于抑制内部股东对外部股东的掠夺,股利支付率较高;而在亚洲,多个大股东则会合谋掠夺外部股东,支付较低股利甚至不支付股利。在我国,国有股"一股独大",其他大股东的持股比例较低,制衡作用有限,且倾向于依附第一大股东或与其联盟,利用现金股利的"隧道效应"谋取私利。     

Is demography destiny? The role of structural and demographic factors in Australis past and future labour supply

Following the release of the Intergenerational Report, the Australian Treasury identified the levers to address the economic effects of demographic ageing as ‘the three Ps’: population, participation and productivity. To date, the first ‘P’, population, has been treated as an exogenous factor, with the common view being that there is very little that the government can do to supplant demographic ageing. Focusing upon labour supply, this paper shows how variation in Australia’s underlying demography can significantly alter Australia’s future labour supply. Although governments cannot redirect the cohort flow component of population ageing, much can be achieved in promoting growth of the labour supply by maintaining or increasing fertility (in the longer term), or increasing targeted migration (in the short to medium term). This paper also decomposes the relative role of cohort flow, changing demography and changing labour force participation on the growth of the labour supply over the past 20 years. Over this period, the entry of the baby boom generation (cohort flow) and increased labour force participation of women accounted for almost all of the growth in the labour force. Changing demography had very little effect. However, Australias future labour supply will not include a large increase in cohort flow (as caused by the baby boomers) or a very large increase in female labour force participation. Regardless of the assumptions used, labour supply growth will be considerably lower in the next and subsequent 20 years, when compared to the previous 20.