University student enrollment forecasts by analysis structural ratios using ARIMA-methods

Summary Forecasts for the number of students in Germany are conducted by the Kultusministerkonferenz. They use a transition model which does not allow for prediction intervals and therefore lack a measure of uncertainty of the forecast. Since the uncertainty is high for such forecasts, this lack is of importance. In this paper, structural ratios, relating the number of university students to the population of the same age, are analyzed and forescasted using ARIMA-models with outliers. Multiplying these ratios with official population forecasts for Germany provides the future number of students, additionally giving prediction intervals. This number will increase from 1.94 million in 2002 to 2.35 million in 2015. The uncertainty of the forecast is high; the forecast interval in 2015 will range between 1.72 and 2.98 million at a 95% confidence level. Supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG). We are grateful to an anonymous referee for some helpful comments.     

生态税与社会就业：“双重红利假说”的视角

基于生态税"双重红利"假说的综合性税制改革是90年代以来各国政府和学术界关注的热点之一.针对中国当前环境问题和就业问题这两个突出矛盾,本文基于"双重红利"假说的思想,提出了一个局部均衡模型,就生态税对两者的影响进行了探讨,分析了其解决中国现实问题的预期效果和限制因素.本文的研究表明,生态税能否达到双重红利的效果与多个因素有关,特别是与企业所处行业的污染治理成本紧密相关,并不能一概而论,在政府征税能力不强,企业逃税比较普遍的环境下,政府的直接补贴未必能实现补贴的初衷.建议在引入法律意义上的生态税税种之前,先在一些地区或行业进行试点,基于我国实际状况的财税改革措施可能会有更好的实际效果.     

我国上市公司的实证研究：股权结构和高层梯队与公司绩效的关系

分析了股权结构和高层梯队对公司绩效的影响并进行了实证研究。股权结构与公司绩效的实证结果显示,流通股对公司绩效有显著负面影响,而法人股则与之呈弱的正相关关系。在国有股权控股的企业中,股权一定程度上的集中对公司是有利的,且政府直接控股比间接控股更有利于企业的整体价值。在论证高层梯队与公司绩效关系上,从团队的传记性特征方面作了实证分析,初步得出了公司绩效与高层梯队平均年龄和平均受教育状况正相关,而与年龄和教育背景的差异性呈负相关关系这一结论。此外,在不同股权结构下,高层梯队对公司绩效影响具有差异性。     

The Possible Effects of Child Survival on Women's Ages at First Union and Childbirth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Improvements in childsurvival may lead to lower fertility throughseveral pathways. To date, most studies havefocused on the physiological and replacementeffects, whose impacts are known to be modestin size. Few have examined the potentially moreimportant insurance effect on fertility withinunion, and almost none have considered thepossible relationship between child mortalityand marriage, which could also grow out of aninsurance strategy. In this study, we use datafrom 21 sub-Saharan African countries to assessthe relationship between child mortality andyoung women's ages at first marriage andchildbirth. The results show that lower levelsof mortality are strongly associated with latermarriages and first births, even aftercontrolling for the effects of a large numberof other variables. The implications of thefindings are discussed and alternativeexplanations for this relationship arepresented.     

隐性契约与公司股利政策研究

隐性契约以商品所有权分割为存在前提,含有隐性契约价格的商品出售使公司承担对顾客的隐性负债,从而对股利政策产生约束。专用性投资是偿还隐性负债的基础,在公司具备相当盈利能力的前提下,专用性投资与股利支付水平应具有负相关关系。实证研究表明,由于中国上市公司的自生能力不足,内部资金没有成为主要的资金来源,导致专用性投资与股利支付率不具有显著的负相关关系。     

我国人口转变地区差异及其与社会经济发展的相关分析

我国的人口转变已经完成 ,但是地区差异颇大。通过对各省份 1949— 1999年人口自然变动系列资料的聚类分析 ,可以把我国的人口转变类型划分为都市、东部、中部、西部和西藏 5种模式 ,各地区人口转变过程及其特点与其社会经济发展水平高度相关     

Promoting a higher retirement age: A prospect‐theoretical approach

Demographic ageing and the necessity of raising the retirement age is one of the most frequently debated topics among European welfare policy experts. This study used prospect theory as developed in behavioural economics to explain public attitudes towards pension reforms. It argues that, in line with prospect theory, negative incentives are more useful in changing people's attitudes in favour of a higher statutory retirement age than are positive incentives. Therefore, in the case of increasing life expectancy, defined‐contribution schemes that apply actuarial formulae linking the level of starting monthly pension benefits to life expectancy are more useful in promoting a higher retirement age than conventional defined‐benefit schemes, which typically do not forge an automatic connection between longevity and starting pensions. The implications of prospect theory for attitudes towards pension reforms were tested using Eurobarometer survey data collected in 2004 and 2009 in the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia.     

Integrating macro- and micro-level approaches in the explanation of population change

Demographers study population change across time and place, and traditionally they place a strong emphasis on a long-range view of population change. This paper builds on current reflections on how to structure the study of population change and proposes a two-stage perspective. The first stage, discovery, focuses on the production of novel evidence at the population level. The second stage, explanation, develops accounts of demographic change and tests how the action and interaction of individuals generate what is discovered in the first stage. This explanatory stage also provides the foundation for the prediction of demographic change. The transformation of micro-level actions and interactions into macro-level population outcomes is identified as a key challenge for the second stage. Specific instances of research are discussed.     

人口红利转折期及其因应之策--以江苏常州为例

我国已连续三年出现劳动年龄人口比重下降和劳动年龄人口绝对数减少的趋势，表明人口红利转折期正在到来。这一状况所产生的影响对更多依赖外来人力资源的经济发达地区更加明显，且从经济层面波及到了民生层面。根据当前的人力资源状况，结合产业和社会发展需要，“十三五”时期，应将原有的人才战略扩展为人力资源保障战略，做到一手抓人才队伍建设，一手抓基本人力资源保障，确保在未来的经济、社会发展中能够获得全面而又稳定的人力资源支撑。     

1974—1985年间中国人口理论发展的逻辑与历史

20世纪70年代初,中国的计划生育工作常常遇到一些不可回避而又迫切需要作出解释的理论问题,中国的人口学研究也由此蓬勃兴起。中国人口学界从研究社会主义基本人口规律入手,由点到面,由浅入深,由特殊到一般,经10余年努力,到1985年,人口规律的知识体系初步形成,马克思主义的两种生产理论也得以丰富和发展。