Demographers’ Involvement in Twentieth-Century Population Policy: Continuity or Discontinuity?

The second half of the twentieth century witnessed the development of a crusading spirit and massive technical aid aimed at reducing fertility levels and rates of population growth in developing countries, and also the involvement of demographers in these events. The demographers at Princeton University’s Office of Population Research, Frank Notestein and his colleagues, have been singled out by recent authors as playing a unique role in bringing about these changes, and they have been criticized for encouraging demographers to become involved, so eroding their scientific objectivity. This paper examines the development of relevant population thought and theory in the English-language literature over the first half of the twentieth century. It concludes that in the circumstances of the second half of the twentieth century, it was inevitable that developed countries and their demographers would become involved in controlling fertility levels in developing countries. The OPR story should be seen largely in terms of how the world’s leading demographic center and its demographic transition theory were swept along by global changes. As those developments started, attitudes to population change in densely settled Asia became Malthusian, even as population growth accompanied by mortality decline in Asia demonstrated that, at least in the short term, the positive checks were disappearing.     

中国上市公司股利政策探讨--从代理成本理论的角度视之

中国上市公司的股利政策与其他国家相比,表现出许多独特之处,形成了"中国股利之谜".在国外,股利政策是控制代理成本的一种工具,在中国,现行股利政策恰好是代理问题没有得到解决的产物,代理成本过高是导致股利政策非理性的重要原因.应当从减持国有股、完善上市公司的股权结构等措施入手,促进股利分配政策的理性决策.在此基础上,进一步发挥股利政策降低代理成本的作用.     

人口普查覆盖误差估计方法综述

人口普查工作的质量主要体现在覆盖误差的规模上.人口统计学家创建了估计人口普查覆盖误差的方法.有些方法利用独立于人口普查本身的信息,另外一些方法则利用人口行政记录的信息.由于每种方法都有其特定的形成背景和适用范围,因而没有适合于所有国家和地区的通用方法.通过对美国、新西兰、澳大利亚、英国和中国的人口普查覆盖误差估计方法进行了较为详细的介绍,说明了这些方法的使用情况.研究表明,任何一种估计方法都有其局限性,需要不断改进与完善.     

Business Legitimacy among Business Students in the United States, Great Britain, and South Africa

This study compares attitudes toward business legitimacy in three countries. Positive attitudes toward business legitimacy exist when there is a congruence between organizational activities and societal expectations. Businesses are concerned about the extent to which negative attitudes toward business legitimacy will lead to increased government regulation. The results suggest that business students in all three countries are similar in their attitudes toward business legitimacy; however, blacks have more negative attitudes toward business legitimacy than do whites. This study resulted in the validation of a scale that can be used to measure attitudes toward business legitimacy on a cross-cultural basis. Business legitimacy is a major concern in South Africa as the predominately white business community seeks to give the emerging black majority a stake in the existing economic system. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

中国各地区人口年龄结构变动的消费效应分析

消费是影响一国经济增长的重要因素,对于影响消费的众多因素研究,大多基于收入分配不均和收入不确定性视角,而忽略了另外一个非常重要的因素,那就是人口年龄结构变化对消费的影响效应。上世纪70年代计划生育政策的推行和人口预期寿命的延长,加快了我国人口转变及老龄化发展的步伐,这一转变必将改变居民的储蓄消费行为,影响储蓄-消费模式和消费率。基于我国2002-2008年省级面板数据,本文研究了各地区人口转变对消费率的影响。研究表明,消费率与少儿抚养比、老年抚养比之间分别存在正相关关系与负相关关系。     

上市商业银行资本充足率影响因素实证分析

以中国A股上市的16家商业银行2005—2013年的财务年度数据为研究样本,实证检验商业银行会计政策、财务政策对资本充足率的影响。实证检验的结果表明,银行的管理者可能利用会计政策（计提贷款损失准备金）和财务政策（股利变化）来操控资本充足率;当管理者需要提高资本充足率水平时,会提高计提贷款损失准备金,同时,分配股利虽然会消耗部分利润,但能给企业带来更多资本;计提贷款损失准备金和股利变化对于资本充足率的影响具有互补关系。     

Optimizing the “demographic dividend” in young developing countries: The role of contractual savings and insurance for financing education

Many developing regions are facing a youth bulge, meaning that young people comprise the highest proportion of the population. These regions are at risk of losing what could be a tremendous opportunity for economic growth and development if they do not capitalize on this young and economically productive population, also referred to as the “demographic dividend,” defined as the increase in economic growth that tends to follow increases in the ratio of the working‐age population – essentially the labor force – to dependents. Nations undergoing this population transition have the opportunity to capitalize on the demographic dividend if the right social, economic, and human capital policies are in place. In particular, Sub‐Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and North Africa are at risk of losing the demographic dividend. These regions face high youth unemployment, low primary school completion, and low secondary school enrollment. This results in an undereducated and unskilled segment of the population. The prohibitive costs of education prevent young people from finishing school, thereby entering the labor market unprepared. This article presents a case for youth‐focused financial inclusion programs as one of the antidotes to the masses of poor, undereducated, and low‐skilled young people swelling the labor markets of poor developing countries.     

基于资金供应链价值视角的最优现金持有方案研究

内部资金的配置不当常常引发公司高层的控制权争夺而损害公司利益。在投资项目中如何设计包含预期投资收入和现金分红比例组合要素在内的最优现金持有方案以提升公司价值成为公司所有者和高管共同面临的问题。本文借鉴报童模型,以公司所有者为先行者,建立了两者之间的斯塔克伯格博弈模型,分析最优现金持有方案的设置及其对公司所有者和高管的影响。研究发现:风险中性的公司所有者总会接受高管内部参股投资,并设置行业现金分红比例以给予高管资金使用方便;最优现金持有方案下,高管总会倾向于选择内部参股而不选择外部投资;此时,公司所有者的收益和资金供应链的效率都会提高,而高管选择外部引资是否能提高收益则取决于已有的薪酬合同水平。研究结论既支持了内部资金市场的"收集有利信息"假说,同时也对公司所有者在控制权私利倾向较强的职业经理人市场中如何科学决策有着重要的借鉴意义。     

现金分红的连续性、投资效率与公司价值——基于面板结构VAR模型的实证分析

本文以1998-2009年间我国1383家上市公司为样本,分别按最终控制人的性质和派现行为是否连续对样本进行了划分,运用面板的结构VAR模型研究了现金股利、投资效率和公司价值之间的关系。基于模型的脉冲响应函数和方差分解,本文对连续派现的公司和非连续派现的公司进行了比较。研究发现：自然人控制的上市公司中,非连续派现公司的投资挤占了现金股利的积极效应,并给公司价值带来了负的冲击效应,连续派现公司的现金分红与投资存在相互促进的效应,公司价值对投资冲击的响应函数值为正;地方政府控制的上市公司整体上投资对现金分红冲击的响应函数值为负,其对公司价值的冲击效应也为负;中央政府控制的上市公司中,连续派现公司的现金分红具有抑制过度投资的效应,但其对投资波动的影响作用较小,若对非连续派现的公司实施以分红为条件的融资政策,则可能会制约其发展。     

人口因素对CO2排放的影响——基于面板分位数回归的实证研究

基于1995～2009年中国省际面板数据,利用面板分位数回归模型估计人口因素对我国CO2排放量的影响,结果显示:人口数量和人口城市化率是影响我国CO2排放的主要人口因素,但从影响大小上看,人口数量变化对发达省份CO2排放的影响大于欠发达省份,而人口城市化率则对欠发达省份的CO2排放具有更大的影响;家庭小型化对CO2排放的影响因省而异,对不同省份,要么没有明显的影响,要么可能导致CO2排放量增加;年龄结构目前还不是导致我国CO2排放量变化的主要人口因素;综合比较而言,经济发展水平对CO2排放的影响大于人口各因素,产业结构对CO2排放的影响小于人口数量和人口城市化率,而技术进步与CO2排放的关系则显得模糊。