外商直接投资对我国产业结构调整的影响

改革开放以来,外商直接投资规模不断扩大,这对促进我国国民经济的迅速发展、加快改革步伐等方面起着积极作用。但由于外商在我国投资存在结构性倾斜,加大了我国三次产业的结构偏差,助长了消费工业品的过度扩张,加快了工业结构的高加工进程,从而增加了我国产业结构调整的难度。为此,我国政府部门应加强对外商直接投资的产业导向。     

Saddlepoint approximations for some models of circular data

In this article we provide saddlepoint approximations for some important models of circular data. The particularity of these saddlepoint approximations is that they do not require solving the saddlepoint equation iteratively, so their evaluation is immediate. We first give very accurate approximations to P-values, critical values and power functions for some optimal tests regarding the concentration parameter under wrapped symmetric α-stable and circular normal models. Then, we consider an approximation to the distribution of a projection of the two-dimensional Pearson random walk with exponential step sizes.     

运用离差最大化方法对影响区域经济发展因素的分析

分析了离差最大化方法的特点,通过实证表明,运用离差最大化方法在确定指标权重方面比较客观的优点,分析不同区域经济发展过程中的主要影响因素,可寻求制定区域经济发展对策与措施的客观依据。     

De l'unicité des estimateurs robustes en régression lorsque le paramètre d'échelle et le paramètre de la régression sont estimés simultanément

Several methods have been suggested to calculate robust M- and G-M -estimators of the regression parameter β and of the error scale parameter σ in a linear model. This paper shows that, for some data sets well known in robust statistics, the nonlinear systems of equations for the simultaneous estimation of β, with an M-estimate with a redescending ψ-function, and σ, with the residual median absolute deviation (MAD), have many solutions. This multiplicity is not caused by the possible lack of uniqueness, for redescending ψ-functions, of the solutions of the system defining β with known σ; rather, the simultaneous estimation of β and σ together creates the problem. A way to avoid these multiple solutions is to proceed in two steps. First take σ as the median absolute deviation of the residuals for a uniquely defined robust M-estimate such as Huber's Proposal 2 or the L₁-estimate. Then solve the nonlinear system for the M-estimate with σ equal to the value obtained at the first step to get the estimate of β. Analytical conditions for the uniqueness of M and G-M-estimates are also given.     

浅说希腊哲学中的意志与自由

在西方哲学史中,自由意志理论是一个非常重要的思想资源,它起源于古希腊时期。那时对意志自由思想的探索尚处在朦胧阶段,哲学家们并未对该问题进行专门的研究,只有一些简单粗糙的规定散见于不同哲学派别的学说中,但正是这些粗陋的规定,为整个西方意志自由思想的发展奠定了基础。     

Self-weighted least absolute deviation estimation for infinite variance autoregressive models

Summary.  How to undertake statistical inference for infinite variance autoregressive models has been a long-standing open problem. To solve this problem, we propose a self-weighted least absolute deviation estimator and show that this estimator is asymptotically normal if the density of errors and its derivative are uniformly bounded. Furthermore, a Wald test statistic is developed for the linear restriction on the parameters, and it is shown to have non-trivial local power. Simulation experiments are carried out to assess the performance of the theory and method in finite samples and a real data example is given. The results are entirely different from other published results and should provide new insights for future research on heavy-tailed time series.     

基层妇联干部的职业素养状况与角色期待教育

当前基层妇联干部的素质状况、角色认知、角色认同感及处理多重角色冲突的能力与实际要求有偏差,要增强其服务妇女群众的角色意识、个人职业生涯的发展能力,接受新信息、新观念的能力,以及创造性开展工作的能力和处理多重关系的能力,就必须调整基层妇联干部的角色认知,塑造良好的心理素质和职业素养,以促进男女共同发展,构建社会主义的和谐社会.     

我国小额信贷机构社会绩效的实证研究

近年来,小额信贷机构在我国发展迅猛,在服务三农上做出了很大贡献。但发展的同时商业化趋势越发明显,小额信贷机构不再单纯以扶贫作为最终目标,建立的初衷已逐渐开始违背,目标偏离现象越发严重,其发展也受到一定程度阻碍。实际上,小额信贷机构真正可持续发展需要实现财务绩效和社会绩效双重目标。因而在2009年社会绩效概念提出后,机构的关注点从最初的长期关注财务绩效逐渐跨到社会绩效。研究发现社会绩效的提高可从不同角度促进机构财务绩效。我们通过采用层次分析法,构建指标体系并建立层次结构模型,以此对小额信贷机构的社会绩效进行研究,评估当前我国公益性和商业性小额信贷机构的社会绩效的基本情况,并对此分析发现两种小额信贷机构侧重点不一样,但总体上对社会绩效的关注还是不够重视,真正意义上的小额信贷机构发展还是需要注重双重目标。     

Obtaining a Trapezoidal Distribution

Given a most believed value for a quantity together with upper and lower possible deviations from that value, a rectangular distribution might be used to represent state-of-knowledge about the quantity. If the deviations are themselves known by probability distributions, and the value conditioned on the deviations is rectangular, then the marginal distribution of the value is determined by the distributions of the deviations. Here we show under quite general conditions that conversely, given the marginal distribution, the distributions of the deviations are uniquely determined. The case in which the marginal distribution is trapezoidal is studied in some detail.     

判别企业生命周期的新方法——构面偏差法

企业生命周期的判别方法存在指标单一、可操作性不强等诸多的问题,成为制约基于生命周期的相关企业管理研究的一个瓶颈。将构面偏差的方法应用到企业生命周期的判别中,详细阐述了基于构面偏差的企业生命周期判别方法的基本原理及应用,并以478个企业数据为例,详细说明了此方法的操作步骤,为基于生命周期的相关研究提供了科学的依据。