Bayesian analysis of elapsed times in continuous‐time Markov chains

The authors consider Bayesian analysis for continuous‐time Markov chain models based on a conditional reference prior. For such models, inference of the elapsed time between chain observations depends heavily on the rate of decay of the prior as the elapsed time increases. Moreover, improper priors on the elapsed time may lead to improper posterior distributions. In addition, an infinitesimal rate matrix also characterizes this class of models. Experts often have good prior knowledge about the parameters of this matrix. The authors show that the use of a proper prior for the rate matrix parameters together with the conditional reference prior for the elapsed time yields a proper posterior distribution. The authors also demonstrate that, when compared to analyses based on priors previously proposed in the literature, a Bayesian analysis on the elapsed time based on the conditional reference prior possesses better frequentist properties. The type of prior thus represents a better default prior choice for estimation software.     

浅析数字化校园及其应用系统的构建

数字化校园是在高等教育信息化快速发展过程中出现的一个崭新概念。本文介绍了数字化校园的内涵、数字化校园建设的主要内容,分析和评价了一些构建数字化校园应用系统的技术,对目前正在兴起的数字化校园建设具有一定的参考意义。     

数字图书馆建设中的知识产权法问题

在数字图书馆建设中要认真学习领会知识产权法 ,科学地解决在数字图书馆建设中所面临的知识产权问题 ,既要寻求法律保护 ,也要积极采取新技术手段。建议在修改和完善知识产权法时 ,赋予图书馆对馆藏文献的数字化权、展示权和出借权     

Attracting Micro‐Enterprises To Learning

Micro‐enterprises, i.e. firms with less than 10 employees, are traditionally the hardest to engage in learning; they are also least likely to participate in such measures as business advice and guidance provision and initiatives to support information communication technology (ICT) adoption. Through a community‐based initiative initially targeting parents (unemployed or employed) to participate in ICT, 30 micro‐enterprises were attracted to learning for the first time. These companies had carefully avoided similar initiatives taking place locally, which emphasized business success and growth; they had only participated in this ICT skills training because of their children. The paper takes a case study approach to evaluate the reasons for participation, explores barriers and implications for those organizing similar activities, and calls for a more holistic view of owners and managers of small firms as fathers, mothers, etc. rather than just as ‘entrepreneurs’.     

上市公司综合评价研究

客观合理地评价上市公司,是投资者、上市公司以及监管机构都非常关注的问题,也是规范发展证券市场的一个重要方面。基于平衡记分卡的原理,提出了我国上市公司的评价指标体系。财务层面的评价采用因子分析法;客户层面、内部层面、学习与创新层面以及综合评价,则是根据模糊三角数的概念构造判断矩阵,利用模糊三角数比较大小的原理进行排序。     

经济预测中的Monte Carlo模拟及方差控制——以国际石油价格预测为例

从MDnte Carlo模拟的实现过程入手，首先通过对Monte Carlo方法原理的阐述来介绍该种方法。进一步结合具体的实例通过计算机进行模拟来解释Monte Carlo方法的具体实现过程。重点讨论在选择合理的数据生成过程的前提下，如何在Monte Carlo方法中减少模拟方差，从而提高估计精度，更好地应用这种方法来进行经济预测。     

A spatiotemporal auto-regressive moving average model for solar radiation

Summary.  To investigate the variability in energy output from a network of photovoltaic cells, solar radiation was recorded at 10 sites every 10 min in the Pentland Hills to the south of Edinburgh. We identify spatiotemporal auto-regressive moving average models as the most appropriate to address this problem. Although previously considered computationally prohibitive to work with, we show that by approximating using toroidal space and fitting by matching auto-correlations, calculations can be substantially reduced. We find that a first-order spatiotemporal auto-regressive (STAR(1)) process with a first-order neighbourhood structure and a Matern noise process provide an adequate fit to the data, and we demonstrate its use in simulating realizations of energy output.     

Bayesian inference for a discretely observed stochastic kinetic model

The ability to infer parameters of gene regulatory networks is emerging as a key problem in systems biology. The biochemical data are intrinsically stochastic and tend to be observed by means of discrete-time sampling systems, which are often limited in their completeness. In this paper we explore how to make Bayesian inference for the kinetic rate constants of regulatory networks, using the stochastic kinetic Lotka-Volterra system as a model. This simple model describes behaviour typical of many biochemical networks which exhibit auto-regulatory behaviour. Various MCMC algorithms are described and their performance evaluated in several data-poor scenarios. An algorithm based on an approximating process is shown to be particularly efficient.     

以旅游业为龙头推进西部地区城镇化建设

城镇化是人类社会发展和进步的必然趋势 ,是衡量一定地域经济社会发展水平和文明程度的重要标志。针对我国西部地区以农村人口为主和城镇与农村并存的特点 ,西部要发展就必须找准突破口 ,加强地方经济建设 ,推进城镇化进程     

Optimal scaling of Metropolis algorithms: Heading toward general target distributions

The authors provide an overview of optimal scaling results for the Metropolis algorithm with Gaussian proposal distribution. They address in more depth the case of high‐dimensional target distributions formed of independent, but not identically distributed components. They attempt to give an intuitive explanation as to why the well‐known optimal acceptance rate of 0.234 is not always suitable. They show how to find the asymptotically optimal acceptance rate when needed, and they explain why it is sometimes necessary to turn to inhomogeneous proposal distributions. Their results are illustrated with a simple example.