Estimation After Selection Under Reflected Normal Loss Function

Let X ₁ and X ₂ be two independent random variables from normal populations Π₁, Π₂ with different unknown location parameters θ₁ and θ₂, respectively and common known scale parameter σ. Let X ₍₂₎ = max (X ₁, X ₂) and X ₍₁₎ = min (X ₁, X ₂). We consider the problem of estimating the location parameter θ _M (or θ _J ) of the selected population under the reflected normal loss function. We obtain minimax estimators of θ _M and θ _J . Also, we provide sufficient conditions for the inadmissibility of invariant estimators of θ _M and θ _J .     

Characterization of Admissible Linear Estimators in Multivariate Linear Model with Respect to Inequality Constraints under Matrix Loss Function

In this article, we study the characterization of admissible linear estimators in a multivariate linear model with inequality constraint, under a matrix loss function. In the homogeneous class, we present several equivalent, necessary and sufficient conditions for a linear estimator of estimable functions to be admissible. In the inhomogeneous class, we find that the necessary and sufficient conditions depend on the rank of the matrix in the constraint. When the rank is greater than one, the necessary and sufficient conditions are obtained. When the rank is equal to one, we have necessary conditions and sufficient conditions separately. We also obtain the necessary and sufficient conditions for a linear estimator of inestimable function to be admissible in both classes.     

From Gratitude to Lamentation: On the Moral and Psychological Economy of Gift,Gain and Loss

The passing of Nelson Mandela and other figures of (diverse) contemporary importance may prompt the interesting question of how we might or should understand the psychological, social and moral function of lamentation in human life. This paper aims to show that such responses are not just of emotional and interpersonal significance, but also of serious moral import. To this end, the paper proceeds via exploration of conceptually and morally suggestive correspondences or resonances between the logical grammar of lamentation—which, to be sure, has received almost no latter day analytical attention—and that of gratitude or thankfulness in which there has been an enormous explosion of academic interest in recent years. The paper argues that there is no less case for a moral virtue of lamentation, than for a virtue of gratitude.     

Bayesian estimation based on progressive Type-II censoring from two-parameter bathtub-shaped lifetime model: an Markov chain Monte Carlo approach

In this paper, maximum likelihood and Bayes estimators of the parameters, reliability and hazard functions have been obtained for two-parameter bathtub-shaped lifetime distribution when sample is available from progressive Type-II censoring scheme. The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is used to compute the Bayes estimates of the model parameters. It has been assumed that the parameters have gamma priors and they are independently distributed. Gibbs within the Metropolis–Hasting algorithm has been applied to generate MCMC samples from the posterior density function. Based on the generated samples, the Bayes estimates and highest posterior density credible intervals of the unknown parameters as well as reliability and hazard functions have been computed. The results of Bayes estimators are obtained under both the balanced-squared error loss and balanced linear-exponential (BLINEX) loss. Moreover, based on the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimators the approximate confidence intervals (CIs) are obtained. In order to construct the asymptotic CI of the reliability and hazard functions, we need to find the variance of them, which are approximated by delta and Bootstrap methods. Two real data sets have been analyzed to demonstrate how the proposed methods can be used in practice.     

房价波动、货币政策与中国社会福利损失

本文建立并采用贝叶斯方法估计了一个包含普通消费品部门与房地产部门的多部门NKMP-DSGE模型,运用脉冲响应函数与贝叶斯冲击分解研究了外生冲击对于产出、通胀以及房价膨胀的影响。研究表明,宽松的货币政策在推动我国房价上涨中扮演了主要作用。基于Woodford^[1]的方法,本文通过政策试验分析了不同政策机制的社会福利损失,结果发现同时对房地产供给以及房价做出反应的政策机制具有相对较小的社会福利损失,因此在房地产市场调控中同时增加房地产供给和抑制房价过快上涨可能具有更好的效果。最后,基于我国现实数据,本文估算了通胀与房价膨胀背景下中国真实的社会福利损失,估算的结果对于进一步考察通胀与房价膨胀背景下中国最优货币政策具有重要的现实意义。     

Danger and Dementia: Caregiver Experiences and Shifting Social Roles During a Highly Active Hurricane Season

This study examined disaster preparedness and decision-making by caregivers of community-dwelling persons diagnosed with Alzheimer’s or a related dementia (ADRD). Interviews were conducted with 20 caregivers in South Florida. Twelve of these interviews include caregiving experiences during the highly active 2004–2005 hurricane seasons. Results indicate that persons in earlier stages of ADRD can, and often do, remain engaged in the disaster preparation and planning process. However, during the early stages, persons may also resist evacuation, even if the caregiver felt it was necessary. During later stages of the disease, caregivers reported less resistance to disaster-related decisions, however, with the tradeoff of less ability to assist with preparation.     

城市公共安全与综合减灾规划面临的九大问题

尽管2003年春夏的"非典"已给北京、广州等大城市上了一次生动的城市危机课,但大中城市频发的事故与灾害仍难以应对。要有效推进中国城市综合减灾事业,必须关注九大问题的研究,在确立城市公共安全的特殊地位、非传统灾害预防、综合减灾建设、危机管理机制建设等方面多下功夫。只有这样才能使城市管理走出应对突发事件的种种误区,建构起中国城市减灾管理的行政体系。