Agent‐Based Recovery Model for Seismic Resilience Evaluation of Electrified Communities

In this article, an agent‐based framework to quantify the seismic resilience of an electric power supply system (EPSS) and the community it serves is presented. Within the framework, the loss and restoration of the EPSS power generation and delivery capacity and of the power demand from the served community are used to assess the electric power deficit during the damage absorption and recovery processes. Damage to the components of the EPSS and of the community‐built environment is evaluated using the seismic fragility functions. The restoration of the community electric power demand is evaluated using the seismic recovery functions. However, the postearthquake EPSS recovery process is modeled using an agent‐based model with two agents, the EPSS Operator and the Community Administrator. The resilience of the EPSS–community system is quantified using direct, EPSS‐related, societal, and community‐related indicators. Parametric studies are carried out to quantify the influence of different seismic hazard scenarios, agent characteristics, and power dispatch strategies on the EPSS–community seismic resilience. The use of the agent‐based modeling framework enabled a rational formulation of the postearthquake recovery phase and highlighted the interaction between the EPSS and the community in the recovery process not quantified in resilience models developed to date. Furthermore, it shows that the resilience of different community sectors can be enhanced by different power dispatch strategies. The proposed agent‐based EPSS–community system resilience quantification framework can be used to develop better community and infrastructure system risk governance policies.     

三种运营模式下O2O外卖服务供应链质量努力策略研究

O2O外卖作为"互联网+"时代下的新型餐饮模式，日益受到人们的关注。本文研究的O2O外卖服务供应链由一个O2O外卖平台、一个餐饮商家和一个配送骑手构成。O2O外卖平台决策平台的服务质量努力和服务费用，餐饮商家决策产品价格，骑手决策配送服务质量努力程度，同时会受到来自平台或商家的服务质量激励。通过分析商家配送、平台配送和商家自建平台+配送三种运营模式，分别构建O2O外卖服务供应链成员的利润函数，运用博弈理论，优化得到不同模式下O2O外卖服务供应链成员的最优质量控制策略和最优利润。利用公式推导和对比分析，分别探讨了骑手激励金额上限和市场规模对服务供应链最优策略和最优利润的影响。通过数值仿真，可得结论：服务供应链各成员利润均随着市场规模的增大而增大，随着骑手激励金额上限的增加而先增大后减少。当市场规模较小时，平台配送模式下商家最优利润最大。而当市场规模较大时，商家自建平台+配送模式下商家最优利润最大。     

多层供应链外包模式的选择及其协调

本文研究由两个原始设备制造企业（品牌企业）、一个代工企业和一个供应商组成的多层供应链的外包模式选择问题。应用主从博弈和纳什博弈理论，当一个原始设备制造企业的外包模式给定后，通过对不同外包模型求解比较，给出了后跟进的原始设备制造企业外包模式的最优选择策略。研究发现：后跟进的原始设备制造企业最优策略应采取与前一个原始设备制造企业相同的外包策略。针对最优外包策略，还设计了使供应链达到协调的二部定价契约机制，提高了外包供应链的竞争力。     

Unaddressed problems and research perspectives in scheduling blood collection from donors

Many optimisation problems arise in managing the Blood Donation (BD) supply chain. Most of them have been addressed in the literature, while other problems, e.g. donation scheduling, have not been sufficiently addressed so far. However, blood collection from donors may have a disruptive impact on the entire BD supply chain if not properly managed. For example, scheduling donation appointments based on some system metrics may improve the flow of blood units through the BD supply chain and increase the quality of service perceived by donors. In this short communication, we present the donation scheduling problem and highlight the lack of work in the literature that deals with this problem. Then, we analyse the impact of an unbalanced flow of blood units on the BD system and the benefits that may derive from a suitable appointment scheduling. Finally, we propose suggestions for future research in BD collection scheduling that may improve the BD process.     

基于消费者效用的生鲜农产品供应链生鲜度激励机制研究

生鲜供应链整体生鲜度的提升对减少浪费、提高供应链整体盈利水平及社会福利有重要意义。本文基于消费者效用理论研究了两供应商和单一零售商组成的供应链系统，构建了单周期下生鲜农产品生鲜度激励模型，模型以供应商为领导者，采用Stackelberg博弈方法求解得到了均衡状态下供应商、零售商的最优定价策略及供应商新鲜度努力选择。研究结果表明，供应商和零售商利润与消费者价格敏感系数呈反向变化，与新鲜度敏感系数呈同向变化。在价格竞争市场，供应商保鲜努力程度和利润与价格替代率呈反向变化；在生鲜度竞争市场，供应商保鲜努力程度和利润与新鲜度替代率呈同向变化。基于研究结论，厂商及政府应当联手引导消费者的消费观念，尽可能减少由于信息不对称引致的道德风险，在市场价格替代率不变甚至降低的情形下，提高生鲜度替代率，使得消费者的意愿支付价格上升，提高自身讨价还价能力，获取更多利润。     

产品服务供应链的“双重收益共享”合作机制

产品与服务融合缓解了"供需错位"矛盾，使得产品服务供应链探索成为"供给侧结构性改革"下供需结构性匹配的重要路径。本文刻画产品服务视角下供应链组织结构的本质特征，构建产品服务供应链合作模型，探讨合作机制下"帕累托改进"区间存在性，揭示合作机制对产品服务供应链效率的作用机理。核心研究发现：供应链多元化组织结构加剧收益分配冲突，并导致服务规模与供应链效率"倒挂"现象，而合作机制下"双重收益共享"合作模型能提升产品服务供应链效率。     

中国第三条农村城镇化道路探索--基于劳动力供给视角

当前中国以异地化转移的城镇化模式已暴露出众多的问题，这种以人口非家庭式迁移和异地转移为主要特点的城镇化发展模式不可持续，必须予以改变。通过对中国第三条农村城镇化道路进行探索可知，以企业战略推动的统筹发展型就地城镇化模式能够弥补前两条道路的不足，可以实现整村、全家同步转移，农民到市民一步的转换，具有多元正效应。在就地转移的第三条道路中，个体的搜寻成本、心理成本、交通成本和住房成本明显低于第二条道路中相应的成本，而生活成本和学习成本则相差不大。将个体劳动供给经典模型进行扩展可知，当工作时间相同时，第三条道路的劳动者个体拥有较高的实际收入和效用水平；从家庭效用模型中也可发现，家庭部门愿意提供的就地转移劳动数量要多于异地转移劳动数量，其更倾向于第三条道路下的就地转移方式。     

现代服务业供应链整合与上海国际贸易中心建设

在当今经济全球化背景下,供应链日益成为产业组织的一种主流生产模式,高端与专业性服务业的供应链整合尤为重要。服务企业能否形成以其为核心的供应链,关键取决于各自的供应链管理能力。通过考察上海商贸、金融、物流、计算机与信息服务业等涉及国际贸易中心建设的关键服务行业,在分析上海国际贸易中心建设中现代服务业供应链整合发展的现状与存在问题的基础上,提出上海增强服务业供应链整合能力的对策建议。     

The impact of water supply and sanitation on infant mortality: Individual-level evidence from Tartu,Estonia, 1897–1900

Evidence from a number of historical studies has demonstrated a strong impact of the provision of clean water on mortality risks, while no clear effect has been reported in others. We investigated the relationship between water supply, sanitation, and infant survival in Tartu, a university town in Estonia, 1897–1900. Based on data from parish registers, which were linked to the first census of the Russian Empire, the analysis reveals a clear disadvantage for infants in households using surface water, compared with families that acquired water from groundwater or artesian wells. The impact is stronger in the later stages of infancy. Competing-risk analysis shows that the effect is more pronounced for deaths caused by diseases of the digestive system. Our findings suggest that it may have been possible to improve the water supply, and consequently reduce infant mortality, before the introduction of piped water and sewage systems.     

城市再生水回用探析——以邯郸市为例

介绍了邯郸市的水资源概况,针对邯郸市水资源短缺、地下水超采和水体污染等问题,提出了发展再生水回用事业来改善现在的水资源利用状况,并通过对再生水回用的必要性及可行性分析,阐明了再生水回用事业的应用前景,肯定了发展再生水回用事业在实现邯郸市分质供水在缓解水环境日益恶化和水资源短缺这两大危机中的重要地位。