孔子的心理调适策略及对教师的启示

孔子以丰厚的学识修养锻炼出成熟丰富的心理调适策略:树立崇高的价值取向;构建学习型生活方式;培养高雅的生活情趣;固守正确的交友观念;保持幽默的人生态度。这些策略对当代教师具有重要的借鉴意义。     

坚持稳中求进 确保经济平稳增长——2012上半年上海经济形势分析

2012年以来,世界经济复苏减缓,市场需求明显不足,全球产能过剩压力加剧,经济运行风险进一步加大,未来发展前景难以确定。我国经济下行压力也明显加大,未来经济增长面临产能过剩、财政收入下滑、就业压力增大、国际游资冲击等负面影响。上海结构调整取得新的进展,预计全年经济增幅合理上升,但在经济运行中需要特别关注就业形势、小微企业、房地产市场、消费市场、区县经济增长等方面因素。应继续按照"稳增长"与"调结构"相互促进的要求,制定和出台促进经济稳定增长的地方性政策措施,重点是做好中央和上海已有各项政策的落实工作。     

Religion in the Lives of Older Women Serving Life in Prison

This exploratory qualitative study examined the roles of religiousness in the lives of 21 older women (mean age = 63) serving life sentences in one southern state. Based on survey and focus group methodology, several themes emerged as important focal points, including early religious experiences prior to incarceration, imprisonment and religious doubt, participation in formal and informal religious activities, and use of religion in coping with stressors such as interpersonal relationships, trauma, and health statuses. Irrespective of their religious upbringing, all participants agreed that religiosity/spirituality played a key role in their ability to cope with their prison experience as well as for maintaining hope and the opportunity for release.     

Bayesian elastic net single index quantile regression

Single index model conditional quantile regression is proposed in order to overcome the dimensionality problem in nonparametric quantile regression. In the proposed method, the Bayesian elastic net is suggested for single index quantile regression for estimation and variables selection. The Gaussian process prior is considered for unknown link function and a Gibbs sampler algorithm is adopted for posterior inference. The results of the simulation studies and numerical example indicate that our propose method, BENSIQReg, offers substantial improvements over two existing methods, SIQReg and BSIQReg. The BENSIQReg has consistently show a good convergent property, has the least value of median of mean absolute deviations and smallest standard deviations, compared to the other two methods.     

转变发展方式必须率先转变调整结构的方式

面对新的发展形势和经济任务，应该明确提出产业结构调整的新思路，即政府创造条件，靠市场来调结构。“十二五”期间，最优先考虑的问题应该是如何改革、如何转变结构调整的方式。倘若“调结构”的方式、特别是实体经济中制造业“调结构”的方式不能率先改革，转变发展方式的诸多目标就有可能落空。“十二五”期间的政策落脚点在于继续加快培育“统一开放、竞争有序”的现代市场体系的进程，切实贯彻中央一再强调的“资源配置要建立在市场调节的基础上”的施政原则，把产业结构的市场化调节落到实处。对于以制造业为基础的结构存量调整的方式，要基本实现从行政化到市场化的转变，强化金融、商贸等服务业的疏导、中介功能，创建有利于推进服务业深度参与存量结构调整和产业升级的体制政策环境。     

Risk Assessment for Hospital-Acquired Diseases: A Risk-Theory Approach

We introduce a new approach to hospital-acquired disease risk assessment from public health databases. In a spirit similar to actuarial risk theory, we define an adjustment coefficient that can quantify the risk associated with a hospital department, allowing comparisons of similar departments. The adjustment coefficient characterizes the tail of the distribution of the total patient length of stay in a department before the first disease event occurs. We show that this coefficient is the solution of a Lundberg-like equation, and we provide a nonparametric estimation procedure for this measure, based on a Cramér-Lundberg approximation for the tail of the distribution. Using simulations, we provide evidence of the robustness of the approximation to various individual risk models. In addition, we illustrate the relevance of this approach by evaluating the risk associated with a standard patient safety indicator in 20 hospitals of southeastern France.     

兰州城关区回族居住格局研究

本文运用都市人类学的研究方法,对兰州市城关区回族的居住格局进行了研究。研究表明,随着民族迁移、社会发展、城市化进程的加快,聚居区转变为杂居区,以及城区边缘地带出现的新聚居区,这种变化还在进行之中。这种居住格局的变化虽然促进了民族团结、社会安定与发展,但是也出现了一些新问题。为此,本文对未来回族的居住格局进行了初步设想。     

从国际视野看研究生教育成本分担

在西方国家,研究生交费入学,即生均教育成本分担被视为必然现象。如何联系我国研究生教育发展的实际,积极借鉴发达国家发展研究生教育的经验,把制订研究生教育成本分担与资助政策作为推进我国研究生教育运行机制改革的有效手段,已成为人们关注的焦点。建议在构建我国研究生教育投资主体多元化与资助政策的过程中,积极引进政策调节与市场竞争相结合的机制;实行研究生教育成本分担与资助的政策措施要与高校内部管理体制的改革有机结合起来。     

Consumption Commitments and Habit Formation

We analyze the implications of household‐level adjustment costs for the dynamics of aggregate consumption. We show that an economy in which agents have “consumption commitments” is approximately equivalent to a habit formation model in which the habit stock is a weighted average of past consumption if idiosyncratic risk is large relative to aggregate risk. Consumption commitments can thus explain the empirical regularity that consumption is excessively sensitive and excessively smooth, findings that are typically attributed to habit formation. Unlike habit formation and other theories, but consistent with empirical evidence, the consumption commitments model also predicts that excess sensitivity and smoothness vanish for large shocks. These results suggest that behavior previously attributed to habit formation may be better explained by adjustment costs. We develop additional testable predictions to further distinguish the commitment and habit models and show that the two models have different welfare implications.     

Inventory‐Based Dynamic Pricing with Costly Price Adjustment

We study an average‐cost stochastic inventory control problem in which the firm can replenish inventory and adjust the price at anytime. We establish the optimality to change the price from low to high in each replenishment cycle as inventory is depleted. With costly price adjustment, scale economies of inventory replenishment are reflected in the cycle time instead of lot size—An increased fixed ordering cost leads to an extended replenishment cycle but does not necessarily increase the order quantity. A reduced marginal cost of ordering calls for an increased order quantity, as well as speeding up product selling within a cycle. We derive useful properties of the profit function that allows for reducing computational complexity of the problem. For systems requiring short replenishment cycles, the optimal solution can be easily computed by applying these properties. For systems requiring long replenishment cycles, we further consider a relaxed problem that is computational tractable. Under this relaxation, the sum of fixed ordering cost and price adjustment cost is equal to (greater than, less than) the total inventory holding cost within a replenishment cycle when the inventory holding cost is linear (convex, concave) in the stock level. Moreover, under the optimal solution, the time‐average profit is the same across all price segments when the inventory holding cost is accounted properly. Through a numerical study, we demonstrate that inventory‐based dynamic pricing can lead to significant profit improvement compared with static pricing and limited price adjustment can yield a benefit that is close to unlimited price adjustment. To be able to enjoy the benefit of dynamic pricing, however, it is important to appropriately choose inventory levels at which the price is revised.