Endogenous Growth of Population and Income Depending on Resource and Knowledge

We consider a three sector demoeconomic model and its interdependence with the accumulation of human capital and resources. The primary sector harvests a renewable resource which constitutes the input into industrial production, the secondary sector of our economy. Both sectors are always affected by the stock of knowledge. The tertiary sector is responsible for the accumulation of this stock that represents a public good for all three sectors. Labour is divided up between the three sectors under the assumption of competitive labour markets. The economy exhibits two externalities—free access to renewable resource harvesting and the existence of a public stock of knowledge—that are not properly reflected in competitive markets. We internalize these externalities by taxing the output of the primary sector and use these taxes together with taxes on labour income to finance the inputs of the tertiary sector. The central focus of this study is whether and what kind of interactions between the economy, the population and the environment foster sustainability and if possible, continuous growth. The views expressed in this paper are the first author’s own views and do not necessarily represent those of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research.     

Instrumental Variables Estimates of the Effect of Subsidized Training on the Quantiles of Trainee Earnings

This paper reports estimates of the effects of JTPA training programs on the distribution of earnings. The estimation uses a new instrumental variable (IV) method that measures program impacts on quantiles. The quantile treatment effects (QTE) estimator reduces to quantile regression when selection for treatment is exogenously determined. QTE can be computed as the solution to a convex linear programming problem, although this requires first‐step estimation of a nuisance function. We develop distribution theory for the case where the first step is estimated nonparametrically. For women, the empirical results show that the JTPA program had the largest proportional impact at low quantiles. Perhaps surprisingly, however, JTPA training raised the quantiles of earnings for men only in the upper half of the trainee earnings distribution.     

A Dynamic Theory of Holdup

The holdup problem arises when parties negotiate to divide the surplus generated by their relationship specific investments. We study this problem in a dynamic model of bargaining and investment which, unlike the stylized static model, allows the parties to continue to invest until they agree on the terms of trade. The investment dynamics overturns the conventional wisdom dramatically. First, the holdup problem need not entail underinvestment when the parties are sufficiently patient. Second, inefficiencies can arise unambiguously in some cases, but they are not caused by the sharing of surplus per se but rather by a failure of an individual rationality constraint.     

Endogenizing the order of moves in matrix games

Players often have flexibility in when they move and thus whether a game is played simultaneously or sequentially may be endogenously determined. For 2 × 2 games, we analyze this using an extended game. In a stage prior to actual play, players choose in which of two periods to move. A player moving at the first opportunity knows when his opponent will move. A player moving at the second turn learns the first mover's action. If both select the same turn, they play a simultaneous move subgame.If both players have dominant strategies in the basic game, equilibrium payoffs in the basic and extended games are identical. If only one player has a dominant strategy or if the unique equilibrium in the basic game is in mixed strategies, then the extended game equilibrium payoffs differ if and only if some pair of pure strategies Pareto dominates the basic game simultaneous play payoffs. If so, sequential play attains the Pareto dominating payoffs. The mixed strategy equilibrium occurs only when it is not Pareto dominated by some pair of pure strategies.In an alternative extended game, players cannot observe delay by opponents at the first turn. Results for 2×2 games are essentially the same as with observable delay, differing only when only one player has a dominant strategy.     

20世纪90年代美日财政政策实证与比较分析

2 0世纪 90年代对于美国和日本来说是十分不同的。从财政政策角度讲 ,美国由于成功地实施了刺激经济增长和削减财政赤字的财政政策而使 2 0世纪 90年代成为“得到的十年” ;而日本由于政府对经济形势判断的失误和由此导致的财政政策失误等原因使 2 0世纪 90年代成为“失去的十年”。这一事实表明 ,正确地判断经济形势、健全的财政和完善的市场机制作用的充分发挥 ,是财政政策发挥作用的重要前提。     

金融发展与经济增长的内生机制

文章在对金融发展如何影响经济增长的决定因素进行分析的基础上,建立了金融发展与经济增长相互作用机制的内生模型,并在严谨的数理分析基础上得出了经济持续增长的均衡条件,探讨了金融发展与经济增长的内在关联机制。得出的主要结论是:只要金融部门的效率在不断提高以及无形资本的水平在不断增长,则经济的持续增长就成为可能;经济的平衡增长率与金融部门的工作效率呈同方向变化,与无形资本创新部门的生产效率及社会对无形资本创新的投入力度呈同方向变化,与有形资本及无形资本的弹性呈同方向变化,与时间贴现率呈反方向变化。     

二氧化碳排放、人力资本和内生经济增长研究

本文在人力资本内生增长模型的基础上引入二氧化碳排放，并将二氧化碳作为环境质量引入效用函数，利用最优控制理论求得稳态时经济增长速度、二氧化碳增长速度，分析了稳态时实现经济增长和二氧化碳减排双重目标的条件，证明人力资本可以克服物质资本边际报酬递减和二氧化碳排放带来的负效用，实现经济增长和二氧化碳减排。通过比较静态分析、参数校准等方法研究了稳态时各增长率的变动趋势。随后本文考察引入二氧化碳排放后内生增长模型的动态性和稳定性，笔者分别通过相位图、数值模拟的方法研究了系统的动态过程，证明了系统的稳定性。     

国外人力资本与经济增长关系研究前沿述评

本文综述了最近十多年来国外人力资本与经济增长关系的文献：理论方面，新一代的经济增长模型试图将人力资本、物质资本、创新的相互作用纳入模型分析，建立人力资本与创新战略性互补模型；实证方面，主要集中在人力资本作用于经济增长的途径，人力资本的外溢作用，人力资本的质量、等级与经济增长关系，人力资本与经济增长的双向作用等方面的实证检验。     

金融创新推动经济增长——基于中国的实证分析

葛兰杰因果检验表明，我国金融创新是经济增长的葛兰杰原因，但存在利率非市场化的问题；内生金融经济增长模型分析结果表明，我国金融创新效率不高、融资格局滞后于经济增长。为此，我国应推动利率市场化进程、支持金融机构合作开发新产品、支持非银行金融机构发展，以促进金融创新对经济增长的贡献。     

中国股市的内生不确定性分析

中国股市的异常波动性不利于其健康发展。运用理性信念理论分析中国股市的内生不确定性，并对经典的CCK模型进行改进。实证分析得出内生不确定性是导致中国股市异常波动的关键性因素，在此基础上提出减缓中国股市波动的相应措施：建立完善投资者教育机制；逐步减少政府对股市的政策干预；加大信息披露监管力度，提高上市公司信息披露的真实性；提高上市公司质量，改善市场结构。