Bayesian analysis of multivariate stochastic volatility with skew return distribution

Multivariate stochastic volatility models with skew distributions are proposed. Exploiting Cholesky stochastic volatility modeling, univariate stochastic volatility processes with leverage effect and generalized hyperbolic skew t-distributions are embedded to multivariate analysis with time-varying correlations. Bayesian modeling allows this approach to provide parsimonious skew structure and to easily scale up for high-dimensional problem. Analyses of daily stock returns are illustrated. Empirical results show that the time-varying correlations and the sparse skew structure contribute to improved prediction performance and Value-at-Risk forecasts.     

对外交流中专有名词翻译

随着全球化步伐的不断加快,中国与世界各国的交流也日益频繁,如何让中国更好地走向世界,同时让中国更好地了解世界就显得尤为重要。语言文化作为文化的重要载体和标志,其传播必将促进中国的对外交流,而专有名词作为语言文化的浓缩和精髓,其翻译在对外交流中将起着举足轻重的作用。     

Guerrilla selfhood: imagining young people's entrepreneurial futures

In this paper, we argue that complex forms of selfhood emerge in relation to rapid economic and social changes unfolding in the early stages of the twenty-first century. We draw on literature that explores youth at risk, entrepreneurial selfhood and neoliberalism to argue that young people are developing modes of transition that allow them to acclimatise to economic and social insecurity. It is an insecurity borne of a paradoxical reliance on, and failure of, neoliberal forms of economics and society. In the context of a post-Global Financial Crisis (post-GFC) world, we explore how young people take responsibility for their uncertain futures. Via our critique of how young people are supposed to manage their lives from education to employment, we argue that a form of selfhood emerges as they are challenged by limited education and employment opportunities. We call this selfhood the guerrilla self. We use this term to designate types of identity that require participation through resistance, institutionalisation through the appearance of not being institutionalised, and individualism in the midst of a failure of individualism. In making this case, we draw on stories told by young people in the USA planning for a future in a post-GFC world.     

Is prenatal sex selection associated with lower female child mortality?

I examine whether prenatal sex selection has substituted postnatal excess female mortality by analysing the dynamics of child sex ratios between 1980 and 2015 using country-level life table data. I decompose changes in child sex ratios into a ‘fertility’ component attributable to prenatal sex selection and a ‘mortality’ component attributable to sex differentials in postnatal survival. Although reductions in numbers of excess female deaths have accompanied increases in missing female births in all countries experiencing the emergence of prenatal sex selection, relative excess female mortality has persisted in some countries but not others. In South Korea, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, mortality reductions favouring girls accompanied increases in prenatal sex selection. In India, excess female mortality was much higher and largely stable as prenatal sex selection emerged, but slight reductions were seen in the 2000s. In China, although absolute measures showed reductions, relative excess female mortality persisted as prenatal sex selection increased.     

Complementary person-supervisor fit: An investigation of supplies-values (S-V) fit,leader-member exchange (LMX) and work outcomes

By applying the supplies-values (S-V) fit approach from the complementary person-environment (P-E) fit literature to the leader-employee perspective, and drawing upon social exchange theory, we examine how fulfillment of different work values is related to Leader-Member Exchange (LMX) and work outcomes. First, polynomial regression analyses combined with response surface analysis of data collected at two time points (N = 316) showed that LMX (Time 2) was higher the more the leader fulfills the employee's work values (Time 1). Second, LMX (Time 2) was higher when leader supplies (Time 1) and employee work values (Time 1) were both high than when both were low. Third, analyses of data from a sub-sample of matched leader-employee dyads (N = 140), showed that LMX (Time 2) played a mediating role on the relation between S-V fit (Time 1) and work outcomes (Time 2). Specifically, we found eight out of 10 relationships between S-V fit (Time 1) and leader-rated task performance and OCB (Time 2) to be fully mediated by LMX (Time 2). LMX (Time 2) partially mediated the relation between S-V fit (Time 1) and job satisfaction (Time 2) as only two out of five relationships were fully mediated.     

平等服务和个性化信息服务——高校创建新型图书馆的两个核心理念

给读者提供平等的信息服务是现代图书馆首要的核心理念。现代网络信息技术恰好为个性化服务提供了方便。个性化服务需要图书馆员付出许多特殊的劳动,为保持服务平等性的纯洁,可采取适当对其提供了特殊服务的读者用服务收费的办法来实现平等服务的宗旨,以取得与普通读者平等的待遇,从而实现平等服务和个性化服务的两全其美。     

Business reform outcomes: Why so different?

Post-crisis policy making increasingly focuses on doing business reforms. We argue that the effects of those reforms will be different across countries. To understand the reasons for the reform outcome divergence, we advance a novel firm-size distribution (FSDs) argument. At the center of the argument is the fact that FSDs are different across countries and stable over time. Then, if a given doing business reform induces firms of different size to grow differently, this will produce a variety of reform outcomes across countries. To advance the argument, we set up a tractable general equilibrium (GE) model and study how firms of different size grow after a doing business reform. The model predicts that larger firms will grow faster than smaller firms after the reform. The model predictions are tested on the Enterprise Surveys (ES) data, merged with the Doing Business indicators. We confirm that firms of different size grow differently after a Doing Business reform. Thus, based on the notable differences of firm size distributions across countries, identical reforms to start, operate and close a business will produce a variety of reform outcomes across countries.     

An algorithmic approach to construct D-optimal saturated designs for logistic model

In this paper, locally D-optimal saturated designs for a logistic model with one and two continuous input variables have been constructed by modifying the famous Fedorov exchange algorithm. A saturated design not only ensures the minimum number of runs in the design but also simplifies the row exchange computation. The basic idea is to exchange a design point with a point from the design space. The algorithm performs the best row exchange between design points and points form a candidate set representing the design space. Naturally, the resultant designs depend on the candidate set. For gain in precision, intuitively a candidate set with a larger number of points and the low discrepancy is desirable, but it increases the computational cost. Apart from the modification in row exchange computation, we propose implementing the algorithm in two stages. Initially, construct a design with a candidate set of affordable size and then later generate a new candidate set around the points of design searched in the former stage. In order to validate the optimality of constructed designs, we have used the general equivalence theorem. Algorithms for the construction of optimal designs have been implemented by developing suitable codes in R.     

生产者货币计价决定因素的实证研究

利用12个发达国家和发展中国家的非平衡面板样本数据,对微观、宏观和其他因素对生产者货币计价(PCP)的影响进行实证研究,指出经济规模、市场份额、金融市场的发达程度、币值的对内稳定性和产品差异化程度是最主要的影响因素,而出口商的谈判能力、币值的对外稳定性等因素也对PCP的选择有一定影响。根据实证检验结果,对人民币作为贸易计价货币的条件进行评估,发现其优势在于我国的经济规模、出口商的市场份额及其谈判能力以及人民币汇率的相对稳定性; 劣势在于相对落后的金融市场、不可预期性较大的通货膨胀水平以及产品的差异化程度。