Conditional Akaike Information Criteria for a Class of Poisson Mixture Models with Random Effects

Focusing on the model selection problems in the family of Poisson mixture models (including the Poisson mixture regression model with random effects and zero‐inflated Poisson regression model with random effects), the current paper derives two conditional Akaike information criteria. The criteria are the unbiased estimators of the conditional Akaike information based on the conditional log‐likelihood and the conditional Akaike information based on the joint log‐likelihood, respectively. The derivation is free from the specific parametric assumptions about the conditional mean of the true data‐generating model and applies to different types of estimation methods. Additionally, the derivation is not based on the asymptotic argument. Simulations show that the proposed criteria have promising estimation accuracy. In addition, it is found that the criterion based on the conditional log‐likelihood demonstrates good model selection performance under different scenarios. Two sets of real data are used to illustrate the proposed method.     

幼儿园游戏与教学融合的审思——基于幼儿游戏本质的视角

幼儿园游戏与教学在学前教育研究中一直隶属于两个领域，尽管有学者提出了一些融合设想，但仍难脱二元论范畴。本研究立足于幼儿游戏本质追寻，并把游戏本质作为幼儿园教学的基本内核，游戏内部的自我控制感和教学外部目的性的平衡与结合，正是幼儿园教学的核心特质。这种思路既理清了幼儿园教学特殊性，又有利于打破目前学界对于二者关系的形形色色的二元论认识，有利于促进二者从对立走向统一。     

“春秋笔法”与唐代小说叙事谋略探微

唐代尚史之风弥漫于文坛,造就了小说家特定的知识结构,从而赋予他们以突出的"史才";而许多唐代小说又多与当时的政治现实密切相联,为能自由地抒情言志、寄寓褒贬,于是源于历史叙事传统的"春秋笔法"便成为唐代小说家重要的叙事谋略."春秋笔法"的内涵为:作者不作论断,而是将自己的主观褒贬暗寓于客观冷静的叙事之中;叙事隐晦深曲,讲究匣剑帏灯、旁敲侧击.此二法在唐代小说中得到了充分显示.     

北魏、北周、唐时期追祖李陵现象述论——以"拓跋鲜卑系李陵之后"为中心

本文通过考述北魏、北周、唐时期出现的诸多追祖李陵的现象,以"拓跋鲜卑系李陵之后"为讨论中心,从民族融合与文化整合的视角出发,来重新梳理和解析此类深为学界所质疑的追祖现象.本文还结合时代背景,将李陵视为一种胡汉杂糅的文化象征符号,探讨了其在北方游牧人与汉地农耕民接触与交往中所扮演的角色.     

Independence test in high-dimension using distance correlation and power enhancement technique

Abstract

This paper is concerned with independence test in high-dimension. A new test statistic is proposed with two terms: one is based on the modified distance correlation statistic, the other is constructed to enhance the power under sparse alternatives. Asymptotic properties of the test statistic are discussed under some regular conditions. The finite-sample simulations exhibit its superiority over some existing procedures. Finally, a real data example illustrates the proposed test.     

中国古代数学家李冶数学文化及教育思想研究

李冶是中国数学史上宋元四大名家之一,他不仅是一位杰出的数学家,而且也是一名著名的教育家。他先进的数学文化及教育思想对现代高校数学教育仍然具有很强的指导和借鉴意义。本文主要从李冶辉煌的数学成就、先进的数学文化观和认识论、先进的数学教育理念以及卓越的实践教育活动等对李冶数学文化及教育思想进行系统研讨,旨在从中得到新的教益和启发。     

Using the Delphi Method to Classify Medical Specialties

One medical specialty classification system applicable for research and career counseling is the person‐oriented versus technique‐oriented taxonomy. Given that the model was conceptualized in the 1960s, verification based on how medical specialties are practiced and viewed today is necessary. Five specialists in medical career development and advising verified the categorization of specialties. Based on their review, 100% consensus was reached regarding grouping of specialties. This outcome validates the taxonomy of medical specialties and supports its continued use for medical career specialty advising and choice.     

The generalized two-sided power distribution

The generalized standard two-sided power (GTSP) distribution was mentioned only in passing by Kotz and van Dorp Beyond Beta, Other Continuous Families of Distributions with Bounded Support and Applications, World Scientific Press, Singapore, 2004. In this paper, we shall further investigate this three-parameter distribution by presenting some novel properties and use its more general form to contrast the chronology of developments of various authors on the two-parameter TSP distribution since its initial introduction. GTSP distributions allow for J-shaped forms of its pdf, whereas TSP distributions are limited to U-shaped and unimodal forms. Hence, GTSP distributions possess the same three distributional shapes as the classical beta distributions. A novel method and algorithm for the indirect elicitation of the two-power parameters of the GTSP distribution is developed. We present a Project Evaluation Review Technique example that utilizes this algorithm and demonstrates the benefit of separate powers for the two branches of activity GTSP distributions for project completion time uncertainty estimation.     

A Risk Analysis Model in Concurrent Engineering Product Development

Concurrent engineering has been widely accepted as a viable strategy for companies to reduce time to market and achieve overall cost savings. This article analyzes various risks and challenges in product development under the concurrent engineering environment. A three‐dimensional early warning approach for product development risk management is proposed by integrating graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT) and failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). Simulation models are created to solve our proposed concurrent engineering product development risk management model. Solutions lead to identification of key risk controlling points. This article demonstrates the value of our approach to risk analysis as a means to monitor various risks typical in the manufacturing sector. This article has three main contributions. First, we establish a conceptual framework to classify various risks in concurrent engineering (CE) product development (PD). Second, we propose use of existing quantitative approaches for PD risk analysis purposes: GERT, FMEA, and product database management (PDM). Based on quantitative tools, we create our approach for risk management of CE PD and discuss solutions of the models. Third, we demonstrate the value of applying our approach using data from a typical Chinese motor company.     

论《潮水集》跨文体写作的艺术张力

散文集《潮水集》的跨文体写作主要表现在两个方面：一是文史交融，作者建构了一个三维情感世界，使作品在文学与历史中穿行；二是均衡之美，表现在“叙事一抒情一叙事”和“议论一抒情一议论”两个创作模式上。