Semi-parametric estimation of ROC curves based on binomial regression modelling

This paper presents a method of estimating a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve when the underlying diagnostic variable X is continuous and fully observed. The new method is based on modelling the probability of response given X , rather than the distribution of X given response. The method offers advantages in modelling flexibility and computational simplicity. The resulting ROC curve estimates are semi-parametric and can, in principle, take an infinite variety of shapes. Moreover, model selection can be based on standard methods within the binomial regression framework. Statistical accuracy of the curve estimate is provided by a simply implemented bootstrap approach.     

中国近代建筑史研究与近代建筑遗产保护

将20世纪40年代至今的中国近代建筑史研究分为初始期、起步期和发展期三个阶段;并根据中国近代建筑特性将其分为承续型、影响型、早发型、后延型四类,在此基础上提出体现出传统承续与外来文化之双重影响为中国近代建筑的特性,必须对其科学地进行分级分类,区别对待,根据具体情况采取保护、利用(再利用),废弃或拆除的对策。结合城市与历史地段研究、工业遗产保护以及相关个体建筑复原保护实践,论述近代遗产保护工作的意义,提出近代遗产保护工作的具体做法。     

人格结构的行为归类假设与中国人人格的文化意义

根据对中西方人格概念的词源和内涵的分析,人格内容可划分为四个不同层次,包括个体的外显行为、内心体验、动机和神经生理基础等四个方面,不同层次之间存在密切的交互关系;文化对人格的不同内容都会产生一定的影响,但影响的程度存在差异.由于对行为含义观察角度的不同造成了中西方人格结构的差异,人格结构的特点也是对文化意义的直接反映.以后的研究应关注文化对人格、行为和适应之间关系的影响.     

刑法身份诸问题研究

身份问题的研究在中外刑法中都受到一定重视。现代各国刑法普遍将身份作为设定刑事责任的存在或影响刑事责任程度的因素,以从犯罪主体的角度调整危害行为与刑事责任的关系,准确有效地打击犯罪。我国刑法理论虽重视身份的研究,但其研究的领域和层次相对泛化,对其分类、功能、身份获得途径以及研究意义中的诸多问题缺乏深入的价值探寻和分析。因此,在现有研究成果的基础上,提出新问题,进行新追问,构建新的研究体系是我们的初衷。     

图书分类与档案分类的互鉴研究

以图书与档案的共同属性为讨论的逻辑基点,对图书与档案分类的异同点进行比较分析,旨在通过图书档案资料更为系统的组织、整理和描述,达到推进其他服务的目的。     

PSC朗读评分中的语音缺陷问题

在2002年12月《普通话水平测试大纲》修订工作征求意见稿中,我们发现它增加了对短文朗读中语音缺陷扣分的规定。短文朗读中的"语音缺陷"在《普通话水平测试大纲》现行评分标准中一直处于被忽视的地位。笔者同意征求意见稿的观点,对短文朗读中存在的"语音缺陷"应该扣分。短文朗读中存在的"语音缺陷"不能归入语音错误,也不能把它们划入"方言语调"的范围,应该把它们并入"方言色彩"的测试中。为此,笔者提出了短文朗读里语音缺陷的评分办法。     

分类定位 整合资源：我国事业单位改革的关键

目前我国的改革开放已到了攻坚阶段,事业单位改革作为对计划经济体制核心部分改造的一项重要工程,改革难度极大.本文针对我国事业单位目前存在的问题,提出分类定位、整合事业单位资源是我国事业单位改革的关键.     

从知识分类的角度构建新的课堂教学结构

自凯洛夫的五步课堂教学结构产生以来,关于教学结构的探讨一直没有间断。但是,传统的教学结构常常囿于学时与教学内容之间的一一对应关系,而且没有明确的知识分类的观念,忽略了学习和教学过程的多样性。针对此种现象,应根据现代认知心理学中知识分类的思想,构建新的课堂教学结构。     

Racial classification in criminology: The reproduction of racialized crime

The (re)production of knowledge about crime is cultural in terms of the questions asked, the comparisons made, and the hypotheses selected to explain crime causation. Since criminologists do not operate in a vacuum, any prejudgments, biases, and beliefs acquired before their professional socialization may well persist and affect their approach to research over the course of their academic careers. Because American criminologists live in a society that racializes a number of problem behaviors, including crime, it is conceivable that widely held beliefs about race that predate graduate training will find their way into assumptions about the relationship between race and crime. Such preprofessional beliefs are transformed into facts when they meet with widespread agreement from other criminologists and thus come to be taken for granted in the objective pursuit of knowledge. Crime is racialized, for example, when the criminal behaviors of individual black offenders are understood in terms of racial traits, racial motives, or racial experiences. When traits, motives, or experiences are classified as the property of whole races or racial communities, these conceptions of race assume causal significance in explaining criminal behavior. Because these traits, motives, and experiences are supposedly shared by entire races or race-class categories, the predisposition to criminality becomes generalized beyond individual Black criminals to whole races or racial communities of noncriminal Blacks. When crime is thus racialized, whole communities or whole categories of phenotypically similar individuals are rendered precriminal and morally suspect. In addition, such racializations in academic criminology can be used to justify increased control of individual black criminals in the larger society; these controls can also legitimately be extended to encompass whole communities and whole categories of phenotypically similar persons who are not involved in crime. This paper will address the role that racializing assumptions play in traditional criminological theories.     

Modeling household fertility decisions with generalized Poisson regression

This paper models household fertility decisions by using a generalized Poisson regression model. Since the fertility data used in the paper exhibit under-dispersion, the generalized Poisson regression model has statistical advantages over both standard Poisson and negative binomial regression models, and is suitable for analysis of count data that exhibit either over-dispersion or under-dispersion. The model is estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. Approximate tests for the dispersion and goodness-of-fit measures for comparing alternative models are discussed. Based on observations from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics of 1989 interviewing year, the empirical results support the fertility hypothesis of Becker and Lewis (1973). Received January 7, 1997 /Accepted April 3, 1997