“一带一路”背景下我国对外石油投资探析

在我国企业对“一带一路”沿线国家的投资中，石油一直是一个重要的领域。我国石油企业的主体是国有企业，其对外石油投资具有一定的特殊性和复杂性。在我国石油企业的对外投资中，就驱动因素而言，既有企业的内在需要，又有国家的政治需要，国家利益与企业利益存在一致性；在区位选择时，资源国石油储量的丰裕程度和品位优劣是首要的影响因素，同时当地的政治社会环境也是重要的考量因素；在布局过程中，我国石油企业要接受政府的引导，且其所有权优势、区位优势、内部化优势的形成也离不开政策支持。我国石油企业要充分利用这些优势，积极扩大与“一带一路”沿线国家的石油投资合作，在实现企业利益的过程中促进国家利益和企业利益的耦合。     

外势场下低维理想玻色气体的热动力性质

本文讨论了外势场下低维理想玻色气体的热力学量和邻近凝结点处的临界热动力性质。结果表明,体系的临界性质在外势场的作用下发生很大变化。当外势取幂律形式时,临界性质明显地依赖于幂的大小。     

美国页岩革命与俄罗斯东进油气出口战略构建

在页岩革命推动下,2008年以来,美国油气产量大幅增长,对进口油气的依存度逐年下降;与此同时,俄罗斯的油气产量逐年萎缩,对欧洲市场的出口持续减少。美国页岩繁荣与俄罗斯油气出口不振的同步出现表明二者存在较强的关联。美国页岩革命不但使俄罗斯的油气出口面临量价齐跌的双重打击,加剧了国内经济困难,而且削弱了其地缘政治影响力。为摆脱政治经济困局,俄罗斯对以欧洲为中心的传统油气出口战略进行调整,确定了“东进”油气出口战略,寻求提高在亚太地区的市场份额,以此作为扭转困境的重要途径。特朗普上台后的能源优先政策使得俄罗斯的油气出口战略调整具有长期性趋势。     

基于极端分位数回归模型的国际原油与天然气市场相依关系研究

针对国际原油价格与天然气价格之间的相依性问题,提出了金融时间序列极端分位数回归模型,解决市场之间相依关系刻画问题。考虑到金融经济活动和极端危机事件可能会影响到原油和天然气市场之间的依赖程度,首先检测样本内的结构突变点,再引入虚拟变量,运用分位数回归理论时间序列模型进行实证分析。研究结果表明：国际原油价格与天然气价格之间存在动态相依关系,且在熊市和牛市期间两者之间均呈正相关,说明消费者和投资者在能源期货市场消费和投资行为存在显著的羊群效应;此外,原油价格波动引起天然气价格的变化在不同分位点表现出非对称效应,两者之间的动态相依关系受到极端金融危机事件和经济活动的影响,极端条件下依赖程度更强。     

油气管道沿线土壤腐蚀性的模糊物元综合评价

由于土壤腐蚀性的常规评价方法都是基于分级界线明确的多因素标准,往往漏失一些有用信息,甚至造成错误的结论。为此,基于模糊物元理论提出了金属管道沿线土壤腐蚀性的模糊物元综合评价的新方法。该方法的基本思路是:把模糊数学与物元分析相结合,利用模糊边界取代了常规的“清晰”边界,根据分析对象间的“相似性”的程度对其进行综合评价。该方法的关键在于:①确定土壤样品相应理化指标的隶属度;②确定各特征指标的权重复合物元;③确定关联系数复合模糊物元;④确定关联度复合模糊物元。与该方法相关的基本概念、理论及实施程序被阐明。通过四川新场气田-青白江输气管道沿线土壤的腐蚀性评价说明了其有效性。     

井口声发射井筒液气浸检测—时延估计方法

基于高阶统计,提出了井口声发射井筒液气浸检测中的接收和发射声信号之间时延估计的非参数化和参数化方法。通过分析声信号在井筒液中的传播过程,井口声发射井筒液气浸检测中的接收噪声,可近似模型化为空间相关的高斯色噪声。由于四阶累积量对任意高斯噪声的盲目性,因此,较常规互相关估计方法,这些方法可以进一步提高检测概率。计算机模拟结果证实了它们的有效性。     

官南气田须家河组高分辨率层序地层学分析

针对官南气田主要含气层段须家河组的地层、砂体划分与对比等所存在的认识较肤浅，很大程度制约了官南气田油气勘探的总体规划和部署，也影响着勘探的成功率。以高分辨率层序地层学     

Characterization of Historical Methane Occurrence Frequencies from U.S. Underground Natural Gas Storage Facilities with Implications for Risk Management,Operations, and Regulatory Policy

Defining a baseline for the frequency of occurrences at underground natural gas storage facilities is critical to maintaining safe operation and to the development of appropriate risk management plans and regulatory approaches. Currently used frequency-estimation methods are reviewed and broadened in this article to include critical factors of cause, severity, and uncertainty that contribute to risk. A Bayesian probabilistic analysis characterizes the aleatoric historical occurrence frequencies given imperfect sampling. Frequencies for the three main storage facility types in the United States (depleted oil-and-gas field storage, aquifer storage, solution-mined salt cavern storage) are generally on the order of 3 to 9 × 10^–2 occurrences, of all causes (surface, well integrity, subsurface integrity) and severities (nuisance, serious, catastrophic), per facility-year. Loss of well integrity is associated with many, but not all, occurrences either within the subsurface or from there up to the surface. The probability of one serious or catastrophic leakage occurrence to the ground surface within the next 10 years, assuming constant number of facilities, is approximately 0.1–0.3% for any facility type. Storage operators and industry regulators can use occurrence frequencies, their associated probabilities and uncertainties, and forecasts of severity magnitudes to better prioritize resources, establish a baseline against which progress toward achieving a reduction target could be measured, and develop more effective mitigation/monitoring/reduction programs in a risk management plan.     

Quantifying the Economic Impact of Hydraulic Fracturing Proppant Selection in Light of Occupational Exposure Risk and Functional Requirements

Selection of an effective and economic proppant material for hydraulic fracturing is an important design choice to optimize the production of oil and natural gas. Proppants are made of silica (quartz sand), alumina, resin-coated silica, ceramics, and others. These materials can be toxic to varying degrees and lead to health problems in the employees handling them primarily due to inhalation exposure. Proppants are selected based on grain size, shape, strength, and cost. Current use is dominated by crystalline silica—the proppant that also has the greatest hazard as an inhalation toxin. Existing research describes the effect of silica on human health, but little research has been done to determine the risk-reduction and social-cost-effectiveness associated with using alternative proppants in light of the health risks. This study quantifies the relative risks or benefits to human health by the use of these proppants through an economic analysis considering the health-related economic impact and its technical attributes. Results show that the use of each ton of silica proppant results in $123 of external costs from fatalities and nonfatal illness arising due to exposure to silica for a crew handing 60,000 tons of proppants. If these health-related externalities were incorporated into the cost, silica proppant could be economically replaced by less harmful, more expensive alternatives for hydraulic fracturing crews handling less than 60,000 tons of proppant each year.     

3D-3C地震资料处理方法在SLG气区的应用

利用转换波（P-SV)的传播速度比纵波低，传播不受孔隙流体的影响，传播规律和纵波有较大的区别，可以进行有效的油气识别。针对鄂尔多斯盆地储层以陆相中的三角洲平原分流河道砂体为主，储层分布变化大，横向上低孔低渗，储层物性的非均质性比较强，P-SV波资料处理与P波资料处理有一些差异的特征,对SLG气区实际3D-3C地震资料处理中的转换波静校正问题、共转换点（CCP）道集抽取方法、转换波的速度分析方法、动校正方法及转换波和纵波比例压缩方法等进行了研究，建立了3D-3C地震资料处理方法和技术，并取得了良好的应用效果，可以将该方法在实际生产中推广应用。