Testing variance components in balanced linear growth curve models

It is well known that the testing of zero variance components is a non-standard problem since the null hypothesis is on the boundary of the parameter space. The usual asymptotic chi-square distribution of the likelihood ratio and score statistics under the null does not necessarily hold because of this null hypothesis. To circumvent this difficulty in balanced linear growth curve models, we introduce an appropriate test statistic and suggest a permutation procedure to approximate its finite-sample distribution. The proposed test alleviates the necessity of any distributional assumptions for the random effects and errors and can easily be applied for testing multiple variance components. Our simulation studies show that the proposed test has Type I error rate close to the nominal level. The power of the proposed test is also compared with the likelihood ratio test in the simulations. An application on data from an orthodontic study is presented and discussed.     

Two non parametric methods for change-point detection in distribution

The change-point detection problem is determining whether a change has taken place. Two non parametric methods based on empirical likelihood and the likelihood ratio are proposed for detecting a change-point problem in distributions for independent observations. Numerical studies are carried out to evaluate the performance of the proposed methods. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed methods are robust, that is, they perform well regardless of whether the observations are from the same distribution family.     

New goodness of fit tests for the Cauchy distribution

Some goodness-of-fit procedures for the Cauchy distribution are presented. The power comparisons indicate that the new tests possess good performances among the competitors, especially against symmetric alternatives. A financial data set is analyzed for illustration.     

对华北油田勘探历程的再认识

华北油田是我国最早发现古潜山海相碳酸盐岩油气藏的地方,也是产量骤起骤降幅度最大的一个油田,它的勘探过程中蕴含着太多丰富的经验值得总结.从任4井发现的细节入手进行回顾,对华北油田勘探经验中的古潜山、碳酸盐岩、震旦系灰岩等关键问题进行了深入思考.指出按有机成油论的学说很难将华北油田的历史经验深入总结下去,应按无机成油论的观点,对华北油田的历史经验进行再认识.     

A lost family-planning regime in eighteenth-century Ceylon

Based on Dutch colonial registers (thombos), this paper reconstructs fertility for two districts in Ceylon, 1756–68. It overcomes challenges in data quality by establishing the outer bounds of plausible estimates in a series of scenarios. Among these, total fertility rates (TFRs) averaged 5.5 in one district, but only 2.7 in the other. These figures exclude the victims of infanticide, a custom noted in European travelogues between about 1660 and 1820. Sex ratios among children differed depending on the number of older siblings, and overall, 27?per cent of girls are missing in one district and 57?per cent in the other. There was little significant variation either in the TFR or the sex ratio by socio-economic status, suggesting that poverty was not a key factor in motivating infanticides. Instead, we argue that at least parts of Ceylon had a forward-looking culture of family planning in the eighteenth century, which was lost in subsequent decades.     

欧洲债务危机的主要成因分析

肇始于希腊的欧洲债务危机到目前为止都没有停息的迹象,甚至还呈蔓延之势。欧洲债务危机爆发的直接原因是在金融危机的背景下,政府支出规模持续扩大,导致财政赤字居高不下,最终使得国债规模超过政府的偿还能力,出现明显的违约可能性。同时,国际竞争力不足,导致出口受阻,使得资金问题更加严重。从更深层次看,产业结构不合理,经济发展速度缓慢,过低的投资率和储蓄率及过高的储蓄投资转化率,都是导致欧债危机的重要原因。     

天然岩芯化学驱采收率机理的一些认识

用牛顿流体驱替一定的均质多孔介质系统结果显示，驱油效率由驱替液的毛管数决定。用化学液驱替天然岩芯时，除毛管数以外，还有很多其他因素影响驱油效率。天然岩芯，即使在宏观上是均匀的，在微观上也不均匀；驱替时所得到的效率一般被称为驱油效率，实质上是微观波及效率和驱油效率的乘积。牛顿流体没有弹性，驱替时，体系的润湿性不发生变化，不出现渗吸作用，不形成乳液，孔隙的几何形状不发生变化。但是，用化学液驱替天然岩芯时，由于化学液为粘弹性，体系有润湿性的改变，会出现乳化现象，渗吸作用也会出现。上述因素都会影响驱油效率，尤其是当多种因素同时作用时。分析了极限采收率和经济采收率的区别。很多文章都论述极限采收率，但经济采收率对油田的作用更大。化学驱应考虑上述因素，这对设计、开发、筛选化学剂以及确定驱油体系会是有益的，将深化我们对化学驱机理的认识，促进这方面更深入的研究。     

The estimation of treatment effect for the censored bivariate data under the univariate censoring

This paper establishes a nonparametric estimator for the treatment effect on censored bivariate data under unvariate censoring. This proposed estimator is based on the one from Lin and Ying(1993)'s nonparametric bivariate survival function estimator, which is itself a generalized version of Park and Park(1995)' quantile estimator. A Bahadur type representation of quantile functions were obtained from the marginal survival distribution estimator of Lin and Ying' model. The asymptotic property of this estimator is shown below and the simulation studies are also given     

Changepoint Estimation in a Segmented Linear Regression via Empirical Likelihood

For a segmented regression system with an unknown changepoint over two domains of a predictor, a new empirical likelihood ratio statistic is proposed to test the null hypothesis of no change. Under the null hypothesis of no change, the proposed test statistic is shown empirically to be Gumbel distributed with robust location and scale estimators against various parameter settings and error distributions. A power analysis is conducted to illustrate the performance of the test. Under the alternative hypothesis with a changepoint, the test statistic is utilized to estimate the changepoint between the two domains. A comparison of the frequency distributions between the proposed estimator and two parametric methods indicates that the proposed method is effective in capturing the true changepoint.     

气藏水平井连续携液理论与实验

在气藏水平井中随着生产管柱倾斜角度的变化，井筒内液体的重力作用会发生改变，从而引起气液两相流型的变化。以产气为主的气井井筒内液体主要以液膜、液滴的形式出现，由此出现了液滴模型与液膜模型两种解释积液的理论。从这两种携液理论出发，考虑生产管柱倾斜角度的影响，对倾斜管内液滴、液膜进行受力分析，推导出了随管柱倾斜角度变化的连续携液临界流速的计算式，使之适用于水平井连续携液临界流量的计算。设计制作了水平气井连续携液实验装置并进行了实验研究，观测气藏水平井中气水两相运动与流型变化情况并测试其临界携液气量，结果表明，气藏水平井中水平井段的液体以液膜携带为主，但直井段中越接近井口，越以液滴携带为主，液滴模型也能适用于计算气藏水平井的连续携液临界流速。