Asymptotic approximations to the distribution of Kendall's sample τ

This paper provides a saddlepoint approximation to the distribution of the sample version of Kendall's τ, which is a measure of association between two samples. The saddlepoint approximation is compared with the Edgeworth and the normal approximations, and with the bootstrap resampling distribution. A numerical study shows that with small sample sizes the saddlepoint approximation outperforms both the normal and the Edgeworth approximations. This paper gives also an analytical comparison between approximated and exact cumulants of the sample Kendall's τ when the two samples are independent.     

Retrofitting Drucker: Knowledge work under cognitive capitalism

This article uses Peter Drucker's work vector-like, to carry the thesis of cognitive capitalism into the management field. Drucker's prophetic insights into the knowledge society are juxtaposed with recent, Italian autonomist Marxist-inspired analyses of capitalism's cognitive phase. If the capacity to create knowledge – or what autonomists call the ‘general intellect’ – is becoming the key productive force, arguably there is a need for a full-blown social form of knowledge management. Our reading of Drucker thus retrieves the one worthwhile thing from the rubble of normative knowledge management. It is the idea of society-level knowledge management premised on a universal and unconditional guaranteed basic income (GBI; or social wage). Basic income represents not just a social investment in knowledge, which Drucker himself called for, but also compensation for biolabour's augmented social productivity. With Drucker as the steppingstone, we conclude, the autonomist tradition merits greater attention from critical management and organisational scholars interested in factoring class and gender back into the knowledge management equation.     

立法语言的语体(下)

立法语言是准确表达立法意图、立法目的和体现立法政策的一种专门载体,比一般的语言文字严谨、规范、简洁、通俗、明确。法律文本大到行文成篇,小至遣词用字,都应当予以足够的重视,要求既符合作为法律行业特殊语体的习惯和规则,也要符合国家通用语言文字(普通话)的语法、语义要求。根据我国立法文本的用字和用词、立法语言的口语以及立法语言的外来词等方面的统计、分析和研究,我们发现立法语言具有通用语言文字和特殊行业语言的双重特点,自然也要接受、符合通用语言文字和法律行业语言的双重规范。     

The almost sure convergence rate of the estimator of optimized certainty equivalent risk measure under α-mixing sequences

Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) model is a kind of financial risk measure that is extensively supported and accepted by international financial community. Its optimized form can be regarded as an optimized certainty equivalent (OCE) risk measurement. In this paper, we mainly discuss and analyze the strong laws of large numbers and the convergence rate of OCE's estimator under α-mixing sequences. The result shows that the almost sure convergence rate of CVaR estimator is given by the results of OCE estimator. Its convergence rate is inversely proportional to the square root of the sample size under certain conditions. Its effectiveness is verified by simulation experiments for two classical α-mixing sequences.     

基于CDIO的计算机图形图像类通识课程的建设与实践研究

CDIO工程教育是从"培养什么人"和"怎样培养人"这两个根本问题出发来探索工程教育问题,而大学通识选修课程作为高校本科人才培养课程体系的重要组成部分,以其开设的课程内容丰富,时间相对集中灵活而深受学生的欢迎。在基于CDIO的计算机图形图像类通识课程的建设与实践研究中,依据CDIO的原理,以设计实验项目实例为教学主线,来贯彻和实现CDIO的让学生"在做中学和在学中做"的教学理念及培养方法。     

论高师体育教育专业健美操普修课多元化发展

从健美操运动发展的实际需要出发,针对目前高等师范院校体育教育专业传统健美操普修课教学所存在的问题,提出了根据社会需求的多样化走多元化发展道路的改革思路,并从课程的多元化发展设计的角度,分别就课程目标的多元化、教学途径多边化、授课类型多样化、教学内容多样化、教学评价综合化等进行了阐述。     

Community Resilience and Decision Theory Challenges for Catastrophic Events

Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd‐following, group‐think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard‐to‐envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building “disaster‐resilient” communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events.     

Total Economic Consequences of an Influenza Outbreak in the United States

Pandemic influenza represents a serious threat not only to the population of the United States, but also to its economy. In this study, we analyze the total economic consequences of potential influenza outbreaks in the United States for four cases based on the distinctions between disease severity and the presence/absence of vaccinations. The analysis is based on data and parameters on influenza obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and the general literature. A state‐of‐the‐art economic impact modeling approach, computable general equilibrium, is applied to analyze a wide range of potential impacts stemming from the outbreaks. This study examines the economic impacts from changes in medical expenditures and workforce participation, and also takes into consideration different types of avoidance behavior and resilience actions not previously fully studied. Our results indicate that, in the absence of avoidance and resilience effects, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in a loss in U.S. GDP of $25.4 billion, but that vaccination could reduce the losses to $19.9 billion. When behavioral and resilience factors are taken into account, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in GDP losses of $45.3 billion without vaccination and $34.4 billion with vaccination. These results indicate the importance of including a broader set of causal factors to achieve more accurate estimates of the total economic impacts of not just pandemic influenza but biothreats in general. The results also highlight a number of actionable items that government policymakers and public health officials can use to help reduce potential economic losses from the outbreaks.     

Tail Behavior and Limit Distribution of Maximum of Logarithmic General Error Distribution

Logarithmic general error distribution, an extension of the log-normal distribution, is proposed. Some interesting properties of the log GED are derived. These properties are applied to establish the asymptotic behavior of the ratio of probability densities and the ratio of the tails of the logarithmic general error and log-normal distributions, and to derive the asymptotic distribution of the partial maximum of an independent and identically distributed sequence obeying the log GED.     

Complete convergence and the strong laws of large numbers for pairwise NQD random variables

The authors study the strong convergence for sequences of pairwise negatively quadrant dependent (NQD) random variables under some wide conditions, and present some new theorems on the complete convergence and the strong laws of large numbers. The obtained results extend and improve some theorems in existing literature.