A Risk-Based Method for Modeling Traffic Fatalities

We describe a risk-based analytical framework for estimating traffic fatalities that combines the probability of a crash and the probability of fatality in the event of a crash. As an illustrative application, we use the methodology to explore the role of vehicle mix and vehicle prevalence on long-run fatality trends for a range of transportation growth scenarios that may be relevant to developing societies. We assume crash rates between different road users are proportional to their roadway use and estimate case fatality ratios (CFRs) for the different vehicle-vehicle and vehicle-pedestrian combinations. We find that in the absence of road safety interventions, the historical trend of initially rising and then falling fatalities observed in industrialized nations occurred only if motorization was through car ownership. In all other cases studied (scenarios dominated by scooter use, bus use, and mixed use), traffic fatalities rose monotonically. Fatalities per vehicle had a falling trend similar to that observed in historical data from industrialized nations. Regional adaptations of the model validated with local data can be used to evaluate the impacts of transportation planning and safety interventions, such as helmets, seat belts, and enforcement of traffic laws, on traffic fatalities.     

完善公司治理，构建良好的内部控制环境

内部控制是解决当前我国一些企业内部管理松弛、制度弱化、会计信息失真以及从源头上治理腐败的重要手段之一。公司治理结构为内部控制提供了外部环境,内部控制为公司治理的有效运作和实施提供了制度保障,只有通过建立完善的公司治理结构,达到公司与所有利害相关者之间利益关系的制衡与协调,才能保证公司决策的科学化,最终维护公司各方面的利益,进而保证内部控制体系的建立及作用的有效发挥。     

Consumption and Saving Behavior of Older and Younger Baby Boomers in Korea

The 1998 Korean Survey of Family Income and Expenditures was used to examine the overall consumption and saving behavior of Korean baby boomers and compared the differences in consumption and saving behavior between older and younger boomers. The t -test results indicated that the younger boomers allocated a significantly higher percentage of their expenditures on food away from home, household appliances, transportation and communication than did the older boomers, whereas the older boomers spent higher amounts and allocated larger budget shares on their children's education than did the younger boomers. The results of Ordinary Least-Squares (OLS) regression analysis showed that, holding other factors constant, older boomers not only spent significantly more in the total consumption expenditures and education expenditures, but older boomers also saved significantly less than did younger boomers.     

区域经济一体化对世界福利及多边贸易体制的影响

随着经济的全球化,在以GATT和WTO为代表的多边贸易自由化不断深化的同时,区域经济一体化组织层出不穷。而区域经济一体化对于世界福利和多边贸易是有利有弊的。因此,在政策制定上要扬长避短,既限制其不利的影响,同时又要积极发挥它的积极作用。     

“合理经济增长率”的消解——一个经济伦理的视角

经济增长极限的仍然存在，说明任何一具体的经济增长率都是通向极限的阶梯。代际关系上的经济增长率的合理性过份依赖于技术乐观主义，人与自然关系中的经济增长率的合理性只是形而上的玄想，代内关系的经济增长率的合理性只能衍生于单一的效率价值取向。这说明合理的经济增长率在经济伦理的应有视角里是虚幻的。人类必须在人口、科技、经济、政治和社会等制度结构方面建立起与可持续发展和生态文明相适应的经济伦理观。     

Deconvolution with supersmooth distributions

Nonparametric deconvolution problems require one to recover an unknown density when the data are contaminated with errors. Optimal global rates of convergence are found under the weighted L_p-loss (1 ≤ p ≤ ∞). It appears that the optimal rates of convergence are extremely low for supersmooth error distributions. To resolve this difficulty, we examine how high the noise level can be for deconvolution to be feasible, and for the deconvolution estimate to be as good as the ordinary density estimate. It is shown that if the noise level is not too high, nonparametric Gaussian deconvolution can still be practical. Several simulation studies are also presented.     

论香港地权法律制度的基本特点

作为地权制度核心的土地所有权制度,香港既没有承袭中国封建地主私有制,也没有效仿英国,而是根据自身的特殊性,建立了土地使用权与所有权相分离、土地只租不卖的基本制度。这个制度决定了港府在土地处置中拥有双重身份和权力,从而使土地发展利用的计划调节与市场调节得以比较完善的结合,为土地的经济、社会和环境效益全面实现提供了法律保障。香港经济与社会的发展和繁荣受惠于香港的地权法律制度。因此,分析研究香港地权法律制度,认识其基本特点,对“一国两制”的实现和借鉴香港经验,改革与完善我国地权法制都有相当价值。     

生态价值论视野下的循环经济

循环经济作为新的经济发展方式不仅建立在劳动价值论的基础上,而且体现了生态价值论的基本理念。在循环经济活动中人们以复杂劳动创造了价值,复杂劳动主要包括通过科技创新对工业工艺流程进行改造,通过系统工程协调工业布局。人们不仅在循环经济中创造了价值而且保护、节省和储存了生态价值,因为循环经济拓宽了自然资源的利用范围,提高了单位资源的产出率,降低了单位产品的资源消耗。传统工业经济发展的问题在于没有解决劳动价值和生态价值的平衡关系,对劳动价值的单一追求,意味着对生态价值的忽视,这是工业经济发展思路狭隘的致命之处。生态经济价值是循环经济富有特色的价值形态,体现了循环经济将劳动价值和生态价值兼顾和融合的特点,体现了经济发展方式的新视野即经济活动应该具有环境良好的出发点和落脚点。生态经济价值是在劳动价值与生态价值对立关系基础上实现统一关系的产物,体现了经济领域中的价值关系辩证法。     

公司价值形成的反身性机制与中国上市公司的实证研究

该研究把人的非完全理性和市场非有效对公司经理人投融资行为的影响融入公司价值的形成过程,构建了公司的价值体系,分析了公司价值形成的反身性机制。用公司价值预期与公司真实的价值创造之间的关系来建立实证模型,检验公司市场价值与内在价值之间的相关性。以中国上市公司为样本进行了实证研究,发现公司价值创造效率与市场的价值预期之间存在显著的相关关系:首先,市场对上市公司的价值预期存在偏离,表现为高估低内在价值的公司和低估高内在价值的公司;其次,这种市场预期的偏差对上市公司的价值创造具有显著的影响,表现为阻碍公司价值的创造。实证结果证明了公司价值形成反身机制的存在性。     

欧洲经货联盟运行以来的经济绩效分析

本文分析了欧洲经货联盟的政策框架,并总结出其特点。在此框架下,分析了自1999年欧元运行以来欧元区的总体经济运行状况。结论是:欧元区货币政策和财政政策协调框架是成功的,它保证了欧元区宏观经济的稳定,但没有将其转化为经济增长的动力,经济增长不容乐观;欧洲经货联盟加速了欧洲经济一体化,特别是金融一体化的进程。