Robust estimation of AR coefficients under simultaneously influencing outliers and missing values

A family of robust estimators for coefficients of Gaussian AR(p) time series under simultaneously influencing distortions of two types: outliers and missing values, is proposed. The estimators are based on special properties of the Cauchy probability distribution; consistency and the asymptotic normality of these estimators are proven. An approximate solution of the problem of minimization of the asymptotic variance within the proposed family of estimators is found. Performance of the proposed estimators is illustrated for simulated time series and for real data sets.     

Using the Theory of Planned Behaviour to Understand Motivation to Register Births in Lombok,Indonesia

Despite government interest in promoting birth registration, more than a third of Indonesian children do not have a birth certificate, affecting the realisation of both their human and citizen rights. While barriers to registering children's births in Indonesia have been assessed, there is limited research on how communities perceive the importance of having a birth certificate. This study used focus group discussions to explore parental motivations around birth registration. The results of a thematic analysis found that perceived use of birth certificates, perceived control over the application process and social norms related to certificate ownership affect the intention to apply.     

清代词集丛刻的文献价值与词学贡献

清词号为中兴,词集丛刻亦甚为发达,文献保存之功甚巨。清代前期词坛昌盛,词集丛刻如《国朝名家诗馀》等多为今人词集之汇辑,保存了大量当代名家词集。中期的词集丛刻则更多地倾向于中小作家,于此可见更为普泛化群体的创作状况,同时在编选倾向上又受浙派词风和乾嘉学风的影响,呈现出偏重浙西词派和重音律等特征。晚清词集丛刻数量大增,品类丰富,王鹏运的《四印斋所刻词》等搜辑宋元旧集,开启词集校勘之风,词学贡献尤为卓著。     

Doing Good,Public Good,and Public Value

In this article, using multiple illustrative case examples, we demonstrate that philanthropic institutions are in the business of creating public value. In framing the work of philanthropy more broadly to include the process of public value creation, philanthropic institutions and leaders are challenged to be more strategic not only in their mission‐fulfillment grant‐making with nonprofit organizations but also in the way they stimulate and encourage collaboration, create the “third space” necessary to incubate ideas to transform society, and leverage resources to increase the return on their investments toward system‐wide change. The implications for philanthropic actors and institutions suggest that the strategic contributions they make toward creation of public value are those that go beyond transactional performance measures, such as number of dollars spent or clients receiving services, to include ways that their investments are amplified by meaningful partnerships with nonprofit and other organizations, changed behaviors of institutions and individuals, and transformative public policies.     

Studying the dependence between ordinal-nominal categorical variables via orthogonal polynomials

In situations where the structure of one of the variables of a contingency table is ordered recent theory involving the augmentation of singular vectors and orthogonal polynomials has shown to be applicable for performing symmetric and non-symmetric correspondence analysis. Such an approach has the advantage of allowing the user to identify the source of variation between the categories in terms of components that reflect linear, quadratic and higher-order trends. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the study of two asymmetrically related variables cross-classified to form a two-way contingency table where only one of the variables has an ordinal structure.     

Fathering With Multiple Partners: Links to Children's Well‐Being in Early Childhood

The claim that multiple partner fertility may pose a risk of adverse outcomes for children has not been tested. We test this argument using a sample of 4,027 resident fathers and children from the Fragile Families and Child Well‐being Survey by examining the pathways through which fathers' multipartnered fertility is associated with children's externalizing behaviors and physical health status at 36 months. Path analyses indicate that multiple partner fertility exerted both a significant direct and indirect effect through paternal depression to influence children's externalizing behaviors. Fathers' multiple partner fertility also exerted a significant indirect effect through one mediator—father involvement—to influence children's physical health. This evidence suggests that the disruptions brought about by multipartnered fertility are important for understanding child well‐being.     

VARIATIONAL BAYESIAN ANALYSIS FOR HIDDEN MARKOV MODELS

The variational approach to Bayesian inference enables simultaneous estimation of model parameters and model complexity. An interesting feature of this approach is that it also leads to an automatic choice of model complexity. Empirical results from the analysis of hidden Markov models with Gaussian observation densities illustrate this. If the variational algorithm is initialized with a large number of hidden states, redundant states are eliminated as the method converges to a solution, thereby leading to a selection of the number of hidden states. In addition, through the use of a variational approximation, the deviance information criterion for Bayesian model selection can be extended to the hidden Markov model framework. Calculation of the deviance information criterion provides a further tool for model selection, which can be used in conjunction with the variational approach.     

On shrinkage m-estimators of location parameters

For a general class of continuous ( and marginally symmetric ) inultivariate distributions, based on suitable M-statistics ( involving bounded but possibly discontinuous score generating functions), shrinkage estimators of location are considered. These estimators are based on the James-Stein type rule and incorporates the idea of preliminary test estimation too. The main emphasis is laid on the study of asymptotic tdistributional ) risk properties of these est-innators, and asymptotic tin-) adraissibility results are also studied under fairly general regularity conditions.     

公允价值会计——理论基础与现实选择

会计计量是财务会计的核心问题。作为一种新的会计 ,公允价值会计为知识经济时代大量涌现的无形资产、衍生金融工具提供了更加合理、更加有用的会计计量模式。文章重点讨论的公允价值会计产生的背景和历程以及公允价值会计的实质。公允价值会计的核心是现值的运用。公允价值会计的发展和使用已是大势所趋 ,为我国未来会计准则的制定导向也必然会带来影响。