Beyond the CPI: An Augmented Cost-of-Living Index

This note examines an augmented cost-of-living index (ACOLI) for the purpose of accounting for “augmented consumption” in real-income measures. Well-being includes not only conventional consumer purchases but also goods and services provided by employers, by mandated social regulations, and by tax-financed public goods. Because augmented consumption is often provided in ways that raise prices but not market incomes, deflating with conventional price indexes may understate real income growth. An exploratory application of the ACOLI approach to the United States during the 1960–1997 period suggests that the Consumer Price Index has grown about 19% faster than the ACOLI. This correction would reduce the estimated cost-of-living increase by .47% per year over the last 37 years.     

EGARCH Model with Weighted Liquidity

We analyze a variant of the EGARCH model which captures the variation of the intra-day price. We study the asymptotic behavior of the estimators for the parameters of the model. We also illustrate our theoretical results by empirical studies.     

International Trade and the Urbanization of Developing Countries: Evidence from Asia

Abstract

A grain surplus and the grain trade are closely related to the urbanization of developing countries. However, existing literature has not given adequate attention to this issue. Our paper develops a theoretical model to explain the mechanisms whereby changes in the grain surplus constrain the level of urbanization in a closed economy context and the grain trade affects the level of urbanization by acting on the grain surplus in an open economy context. A test of the theoretical model applied to some developing countries in Asia during the period 1993-2010 shows that international trade is generally negatively correlated with level of urbanization. However, cereal and non-cereal trade vary in terms of their relation to urbanization: whereas the former is positively correlated with level of urbanization, the latter is negatively correlated with it. Since the net import of cereals relaxes the constraint imposed on the level of urbanization by the domestic grain surplus, it can have a marked positive effect on the course of urbanization. Our research findings show that provided grain production or grain security is guaranteed, developing countries may adopt a policy of importing an appropriate amount of grain to increase their level of urbanization.     

果业财政补贴与激励机制设计

果业发展的关键在于技术和品种的更新,而引入新技术需要投入较多资金,更新品种也要几年后才有收益,这制约了广大果农对果业升级换代的积极性,影响了果业的发展。因此,政府应对果业提供产出补贴与品种更新补贴,以此来激励果农采用新技术及新优果树品种,提高果业的竞争力。政府的具体补贴数额可通过补贴激励机制模型计算得出。     

首都粮食系统安全保障体系研究

分析了首都粮食流通体系的现状及问题，提出了建设首都粮食流通聚集区的设想，开展了必要性分析、立地与规模需求分析，提出了建设思路、运作模式和运营重点。     

我国丝绸出口贸易的经济分析

我国丝绸出口贸易的 "显示"比较优势指数呈逐年下降的趋势,但其数值一直保持在17以上,说明我国的丝绸出口与其他出口商品相比仍具有很大的竞争优势;我国丝绸出口的相对价格弹性系数为-0.3825,属于低弹性的商品.降低丝绸出口价格,不但无益于丝绸出口量的增加,反而会引起出口创汇额的明显下降,引起丝绸"出口贫困"现象的产生.稳定我国丝绸出口价格,是我国蚕丝业和丝绸贸易稳定发展的正确选择.     

激励企业技术创新的两种管制方式

本文旨在探讨激励垄断企业技术创新的两种管制方式——价格上限管制和最优管制机制。首先分别建立了它们的管制模型,得出了激励企业技术创新的具体的管制机制;进一步地,比较了在这两种管制方式下企业创新的内在激励,以及创新费用的增加对消费者剩余的影响;并分析了当激励企业创新问题引入时,两种管制方式相对优势的改变。     

基于自组织算法的改进型GAANN预测模型

在传统的基于GA算法人工神经网络的基础上作了改进,将训练集分为两部分,在前一训练集训练后获得的网络基础上使用后一训练集进行进一步的训练获得更为优化的网络结构。针对复杂系统建模输入节点难以确定的问题,提出将其与自组织理论相结合,首先使用GMDH方法获得神经网络的初始化节点,然后使用训练好的神经网络模型进行预测。最后,将由此建立的预测模型应用于国家粮食产量预测,取得了令人满意的效果。     

基于激励机制的指数化股票期权模型及其应用

股票期权的激励作用受到股市有效性的很大影响,股市的弱有效性使得经理层股票期权的收益发生扭曲。本文介绍了建立在基准指数基础上的指数化股票期权模型,分析了该模型的假设条件和约定价格的构造原理,并采用实例对指数化模型的定价效果进行了验证。     

基于投入产出技术的企业价格变动模型及其应用

本文建立了企业产品价格综合变动影响的四种不同的测算模型。可用于测算中间产品价格和初始投入变化及其连锁影响。