A Quantitative Assessment of the Risks from Illegally Imported Meat Contaminated with Foot and Mouth Disease Virus to Great Britain

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is considered by many as the most important animal disease in the world. FMD is highly contagious and outbreaks incur significant costs as affected countries are severely limited in their ability to trade. A number of trade commodities may be contaminated with FMD virus (FMDV) including animal products, for example, meat. As a member of the European Union, Great Britain (GB) has put in place a number of regulations to prevent the importation of pathogens in imported meat products. However, the illegal importation of meat provides a route by which safety controls may be circumvented and meat from FMD affected areas may be imported. This study assesses the FMD infection risk posed to the livestock population of GB from the illegal importation of meat, and estimates the major contributors to this overall risk, through the development of a quantitative risk assessment model. From model results, the total amount of illegal meat entering GB each year is estimated on average to be 11,875 tonnes. with 90% certainty that this is between 4,398 and 28,626 tonnes per year; of which between 64.5 and 565 kg are contaminated with FMDV. This flow of illegal meat results in an estimate of a frequency of FMD infection in GB livestock of 0.015 cases of infected animals per year, with 90% certainty it is between 0.0017 and 0.053. Imports from the region Near and Middle East account for 47% of this risk, and 68% of the risk is attributed to bone-in and dried de-boned products.     

论被害人陈述的法律地位

被害人在刑事诉讼中所同时具备的当事人角色与实质证人角色之间的冲突，是所有当事人证据都存在的普遍性问题，并不足以否定被害人陈述作为证据的适格性。由于被害人在公诉案件审判程序中并不具备独立的控诉职能，因此相关之角色紧张在一定程度上得以缓和。在我国刑事证据制度构筑封闭式的证据分类体系的情况下，人证及当事人证据在分类逻辑上的要求，决定了被害人陈述不仅是适格的诉讼证据，而且构成独立的法定证据种类。     

国家赔偿责任归责原则之回归

归责原则作为侵权行为类型化的根据,具有统领侵权行为法其他规范的作用。国家公权力侵权行为,虽为一种特殊的侵权行为,但仍属侵权行为法总的归责原则之统辖范围。因此,“违法责任归责原则”的提法在理论上是不成立的,有必要回归到“无过错责任原则”的正确表述上来。这种回归不仅仅是法律术语规范的需要,更为重要的是,它可以引导我们把国家赔偿法的研究重心放在公权行为的违法特性方面。     

举证、证明、提证辨

刑事诉讼证明论中,涉及举证、证明、提证等概念。由于对这些概念的理解不同,难以取得较一致的认识。举证,重点在举,提出、拿出;证明是证实、查明,侧重于结论;提证是收集、调取及审查核对．司法机关、当事人及其他诉讼参与人在不同诉讼环节上,在这些不同的方面职权、职责、权利、义务是不同的．简言之,可用“谁主张,谁举证”,“谁结论,谁证明”,“谁审查,谁提证”的公式来概括。明确这些概念及其区别,对于深入研究刑事诉讼证明论是必要的,对完善我国刑事诉讼结构也是有益的。     

基于可变参数优化的相关证据合成方法研究

总结了相关证据合成的理论方法,分析了已有合成方法的不足,对相关证据的相关焦元 的分布情况进行了分析,提出一种面向问题的基于可变参数的相关证据的合成方法. 方法只对 相关焦元的基本可信数进行修正,克服了对相关证据所有焦元进行修正的弱点,使修正的对象 更加合理,修正系数可用基于学习的寻优方法得到. 在相关证据的相关焦元的基本可信数未知 的情况下也可进行相关证据的合成. 计算结果表明该方法对合成的结果有明显的改进     

论行政诉讼非法证据类型

非法证据排除规则最早在美国确立并得到发展,形成一套比较完整的体系。我国对非法证据排除规则的探讨很长时期仅停留在理论阶段,2012年《刑事诉讼法》修改中采纳并确立这一证据规则,使其从理论探讨变为实践,也为行政诉讼非法证据排除规则的探讨提供了很好的借鉴。目前,行政诉讼法正处于修改时期,以现有的法律规范为基础探讨行政诉讼非法证据的类型及其判断标准显得尤为必要。     

An Individual Mixed‐Evaluation Method for Career Intervention

Economic issues linked to career counseling are a cause for concern to policy makers in developed countries because they expect career practitioners to provide evidence of the efficiency of career counseling interventions. The aim of this study was to test an individual evaluation method mixing time series (outcomes) and life narrative (processes). The method used 5 items related to 1 client's career decision self‐efficacy and studied the evolution of those items throughout the intervention of 1 career counselor (43 days). Changepoint analysis helped in identifying the changes that have to be taken into account for time series and which are contextualized in the client's verbatim analysis. This mixed method highlighted that the career counselor's intervention increased the client's career decision self‐efficacy. Practitioners could use the methodology proposed in this article to evaluate their interventions. They could also report their practice to clients, employers, and decision makers.     

内部审计对反倾销会计信息证据效力的影响研究

从防范和应对的角度研究内部审计对反倾销会计信息证据效力的影响，有利于促进企业内部审计制度的发展和完善，提高反倾销会计信息证据效力，为我国企业的国际化战略提供有力支持。以2007-2012年间遭受反倾销诉讼的上市公司的数据为样本，检验了内部审计对反倾销会计信息证据效力的影响。实证结果显示：内部审计质量越高，企业应对反倾销的会计信息证据越有效力；内部审计质量一定的情况下，内部控制有效的企业，内部审计与内部控制的互动能够提高反倾销会计信息证据效力。     

Evidential inference for diffusion-type processes

This article analyses diffusion-type processes from a new point-of-view. Consider two statistical hypotheses on a diffusion process. We do not use a classical test to reject or accept one hypothesis using the Neyman–Pearson procedure and do not involve Bayesian approach. As an alternative, we propose using a likelihood paradigm to characterizing the statistical evidence in support of these hypotheses. The method is based on evidential inference introduced and described by Royall [Royall R. Statistical evidence: a likelihood paradigm. London: Chapman and Hall; 1997]. In this paper, we extend the theory of Royall to the case when data are observations from a diffusion-type process instead of iid observations. The empirical distribution of likelihood ratio is used to formulate the probability of strong, misleading and weak evidences. Since the strength of evidence can be affected by the sampling characteristics, we present a simulation study that demonstrates these effects. Also we try to control misleading evidence and reduce them by adjusting these characteristics. As an illustration, we apply the method to the Microsoft stock prices.