现代女性步履的真实文本——茅盾笔下的女性形象与同时代女作家创作的比较

本文通过对 2 0世纪 2 0至 30年代现代女作家小说创作和茅盾小说中的新女性形象特征的比较分析 ,提出文学史上的男性主体作家 (从数量上来说 )中 ,取现实主义的客观、严峻态度进行创作的部分作品 ,有可能成为女性文学创作与研究的鉴本     

Confidence Intervals for Current Status Data

Abstract.  The likelihood ratio statistic for testing pointwise hypotheses about the survival time distribution in the current status model can be inverted to yield confidence intervals (CIs). One advantage of this procedure is that CIs can be formed without estimating the unknown parameters that figure in the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the distribution function. We discuss the likelihood ratio-based CIs for the distribution function and the quantile function and compare these intervals to several different intervals based on the MLE. The quantiles of the limiting distribution of the MLE are estimated using various methods including parametric fitting, kernel smoothing and subsampling techniques. Comparisons are carried out both for simulated data and on a data set involving time to immunization against rubella. The comparisons indicate that the likelihood ratio-based intervals are preferable from several perspectives.     

失衡的人性:论张爱玲小说中的男性形象

张爱玲继承中外人学的思想潮流,深入意识底层写"破坏"中的男性形象.通过描写精神空虚的失势遗老,浮华于乱世中的纨绔子弟,颓败灰暗的夹缝人物以及极度压抑心理崩溃的一批典型男性形象,集中体现出该时代男性在大破坏的时代背景下,个体社会价值的普遍缺失,导致人性中动物性欲求的极度张扬,社会属性的隐退扭曲,以及由此引起的人性失衡.     

新时代教师队伍建设改革与创新--基于浙江省基本经验的研究

教育的进步,离不开高素质专业化教师队伍建设。以浙江省为代表的我国教师队伍建设经历了三个不同的发展时期:以扩充合格教师队伍为重点的院系调整时期、以发展义务教育师资力量为重点的师范教育稳定发展时期、以提高教师队伍整体素质为重点的教师队伍建设改革时期。浙江省教师队伍之所以能够由“弱”到“强”,教师综合素质、专业化水平和创新能力显著提升,教师年龄结构、学历结构、专业结构和职称结构不断优化,其关键在于围绕教师专业素养、发展活力和职业声望等方面进行了一系列改革。基于对浙江省教师队伍建设基本经验的梳理与总结,探索我国教师队伍建设改革与创新的实践路径,有助于推进高素质、专业化、创新型教师队伍建设。为促进我国教师队伍整体素质的提升,新时代教师队伍建设改革与创新应注重四个方面:在坚守中创新师范精神,促进师范教育专业化;全面深化教师队伍建设改革,建立“新师范”实践共同体;加强师范教育政策扶植,提供必要的政策保障;塑造良好的教师形象,提升教师社会影响力。     

What's wrong with sociology? Its public image

In response to editor Stephen Cole's question—"What's wrong with sociology?"—the answer is nothing that cannot be overcome by clearer communications and better public relations. The problem is that the field is not held in high esteem by college administrators, legislators, and the public. Many see us as rebels of the 1960s, political liberals, and impractical thinkers with a penchant for jargon. Even our research is derided by some as a waste of money. The solution consists of strategies for overcoming our poor public image. Seven strategies for doing so are discussed: (1) Write clearly. (2) Write for a mass audience. (3) Seek board positions. (4) Strengthen our identity. (5) Teach sociology in high school. (6) Develop academic partnerships. (7) Emphasize outcomes: increase in tolerance and research skills.     

A simple,automatic and adaptive bivariate density estimator based on conditional densities

The standard approach to non-parametric bivariate density estimation is to use a kernel density estimator. Practical performance of this estimator is hindered by the fact that the estimator is not adaptive (in the sense that the level of smoothing is not sensitive to local properties of the density). In this paper a simple, automatic and adaptive bivariate density estimator is proposed based on the estimation of marginal and conditional densities. Asymptotic properties of the estimator are examined, and guidance to practical application of the method is given. Application to two examples illustrates the usefulness of the estimator as an exploratory tool, particularly in situations where the local behaviour of the density varies widely. The proposed estimator is also appropriate for use as a pilot estimate for an adaptive kernel estimate, since it is relatively inexpensive to calculate.     

Spatial variation in risk of disease: a nonparametric binary regression approach

A common problem in environmental epidemiology is the estimation and mapping of spatial variation in disease risk. In this paper we analyse data from the Walsall District Health Authority, UK, concerning the spatial distributions of cancer cases compared with controls sampled from the population register. We formulate the risk estimation problem as a nonparametric binary regression problem and consider two different methods of estimation. The first uses a standard kernel method with a cross-validation criterion for choosing the associated bandwidth parameter. The second uses the framework of the generalized additive model (GAM) which has the advantage that it can allow for additional explanatory variables, but is computationally more demanding. For the Walsall data, we obtain similar results using either the kernel method with controls stratified by age and sex to match the age–sex distribution of the cases or the GAM method with random controls but incorporating age and sex as additional explanatory variables. For cancers of the lung or stomach, the analysis shows highly statistically significant spatial variation in risk. For the less common cancers of the pancreas, the spatial variation in risk is not statistically significant.     

On the shrinkage of local linear curve estimators

Local linear curve estimators are typically constructed using a compactly supported kernel, which minimizes edge effects and (in the case of the Epanechnikov kernel) optimizes asymptotic performance in a mean square sense. The use of compactly supported kernels can produce numerical problems, however. A common remedy is ridging, which may be viewed as shrinkage of the local linear estimator towards the origin. In this paper we propose a general form of shrinkage, and suggest that, in practice, shrinkage be towards a proper curve estimator. For the latter we propose a local linear estimator based on an infinitely supported kernel. This approach is resistant against selection of too large a shrinkage parameter, which can impair performance when shrinkage is towards the origin. It also removes problems of numerical instability resulting from using a compactly supported kernel, and enjoys very good mean squared error properties.     

“鲁迅形象”建构的文化语境、过程与反思

"鲁迅形象"是中国现代文化史上典型的现代知识分子的形象符码,其生成过程与现代中国的动态语境密切相关,深刻地勾联了阐释者的文化心理和思维形态。"鲁迅形象"是由自塑和他塑合力而构成的公共形象,对其进行文化学意义上的考察可为探索现代中国发展的社会史和现代知识分子的心灵史提供理论资源。     

Assessment of modeling longitudinal binary data based on graphical methods

Longitudinal categorical data are commonly applied in a variety of fields and are frequently analyzed by generalized estimating equation (GEE) method. Prior to making further inference based on the GEE model, the assessment of model fit is crucial. Graphical techniques have long been in widespread use for assessing the model adequacy. We develop alternative graphical approaches utilizing plots of marginal model-checking condition and local mean deviance to assess the GEE model with logit link for longitudinal binary responses. The applications of the proposed procedures are illustrated through two longitudinal binary datasets.