Risk Perception in a Developing Country: The Case of Chile

In this work we characterize risk perception in Chile, based on the psychometric paradigm, exploring the difference between perceived social and personal risk. For this purpose, we conducted a survey including 54 hazards, 16 risk attributes, and 3 risk constructs. The survey, divided into four parts, was administered to 508 residents of Santiago, Chile. Using factor analysis, three main factors, which accounted for 80% of the sample's variance, were identified: factor 1, commonly called "Dread Risk" in the literature, explained 37% of variance; factor 2, "Unknown Risk," explained 28%; and factor 3, which we called "Personal Effect," explained 15% of the variance. On average, individuals perceived themselves as less exposed to risk and with more control and knowledge about them than the general population. OLS regression models were used to test the association of perceived risk with the three main factors. For social risk, factor 1 had the greatest explanatory power, while factor 2 had a negative sign. For personal risk, only factors 2 and 3 were significant, with factor 3 having the greatest explanatory power. Risk denial (defined as the difference between perceived personal and social risk) was associated with factors 1 and 2 only, with factor 2 having a negative sign. The difference between desired and actual regulation levels proved positive for all hazards, thus indicating that Chileans are dissatisfied with the current regulation level for all the hazards analyzed. The comparison of data at the aggregate and at the individual subject's level suggests that while the aggregate analysis overestimates the magnitude of the correlations it still reflects the tendency of the individual responses.     

Hazards regression for freemium products and services: a competing risks approach

We propose a competing risks approach to analyse customer behaviours in freemium products and services. The event of interest is when a customer starts to pay for additional features or functionalities. The observation of such an event may be preempted by an event where the customer quits using the product before paying and consuming the additional features or functionalities. One such freemium service is the online game category. The Fine-Gray regression model was implemented for an online game player activity data to study how covariates affect the paying hazard. Some covariates are hypothesized to have different discrete effects at multiple change points. We extend the model to allow for possible change points in the analysis.     

Statistical analysis of dependent competing risks model in accelerated life testing under progressively hybrid censoring using copula function

This article considers statistical analysis of dependent competing risks model from Weibull distribution in accelerated life testing, in which copula function is used to examine the dependence structure between competing failure modes. We derive the maximum likelihood estimates, the approximate, and Bootstrap confidence intervals of the parameters. The effects of different dependence structures on the estimates of parameters are investigated. The simulation is given to compare the performance of the estimates when the competing failure modes are dependent with those when the failure modes are independent. Finally, one dataset was used for illustrative purpose in conclusion.     

论寿险经营风险的防范和控制

寿险经营 ,实质上是一种负债经营 ,而且由于寿险风险具有隐藏性、累积性、爆发性和危害性的特点 ,一旦爆发 ,就可能造成严重的社会后果 ,这就需要寿险公司及其监管机构及早识别寿险经营中存在的风险 ,进行防范和控制 ,以维持寿险经营的稳定。本文从防范和控制寿险经营风险的必要性出发 ,分析了寿险经营中存在的各种风险 ,尝试运用财务分析法中的各种指标测试来识别这些风险 ,提出了监管机构、寿险公司和自律组织在寿险经营风险防范和控制中应采取的各种措施。     

Chinese and Americans Agree on What Is Fair,but Disagree on What Is Best in Societal Decisions Affecting Health and Safety Risks

Through surveys of students and junior professionals and interviews with business and government executives, we studied Chinese choices and fairness perceptions in risky health and safety decisions. The survey responses were compared with American responses from an earlier study by Keller and Sarin.The survey results show that the American and Chinese respondents had similar fairness perceptions, but the Chinese did not make decisions that were consistent with their fairness perceptions, whereas the Americans did. We found that the middle-age Chinese professionals tended to make choices that were more different from the Americans than were the choices of the young Chinese management students. It is likely that these discrepancies were caused by cultural differences, with the younger Chinese tending to face a stronger Western influence.The insights from the survey results were enriched by interviews that revealed fairness perceptions of Chinese business and government executives. A framework to interpret cultural influences on decision making was also proposed.     

论我国股票市场的运行效率

股票市场的效率在于能够最大限度地融集资金并在产业和企业间进行有效分析；能够提供资金最大流动性，降低股票交易的成本，实现资源的有效配置。为此，必须从提高股票市场的效率入手，尽快完善我国股票市场的运行机制，使股票市场充分发挥资源配置和分散风险两大功能。     

Quantitative Methods for Environmental Justice Assessment of Transportation

Application of Executive Order 12898 to risk assessment of highway or rail transport of hazardous materials has proven difficult; in general, the location and conditions affecting the propagation of a plume of hazardous material released in a potential accident are unknown. Therefore, analyses have only been possible in a geographically broad or approximate manner. The advent of geographic information systems and development of software enhancements at Sandia National Laboratories have made kilometer-by-kilometer analysis of populations tallied by U.S. Census blocks along entire routes practicable. Tabulations of total or racially/ethnically distinct populations close to a route, its alternatives, or the broader surrounding area, can then be compared and differences evaluated statistically. This article presents methods of comparing populations and their racial/ethnic compositions using simple tabulations, histograms, and chi-square tests for statistical significance of differences found. Two examples of these methods are presented: comparison of two routes and comparison of a route with its surroundings.     

从一案例看CIF条件下货损时买方对索赔对象的选择

国际货物买卖中的标的物在跨越国界进行流动时，如果货物在仓储、装卸、遭遇自然灾害或意外事故而导致货损，如何根据国际货物买卖合同的规定，确定风险转移的时间，选择合适的索赔对象，直接关系到买卖合同利益的实现。文章从一个真实的案例出发，探讨了在CIF条件下买方遭遇货损时如何选择索赔对象，从而最大可能的减少风险，降低损失这一问题。根据案件中涉及的有关法律问题以及买方在遭遇货损时进行索赔选择的几种可能性，对如何选择索赔对象提出了几点参考意见。     

Impact of Hazardous Substances Regulations on Small Firms in Delaware and New Jersey

Regulations under the 1990 Amendments to the Clean Air Act impose significant requirements on firms handling hazardous chemicals. The nature of the regulations would suggest that small firms, because of limited resources and other structural limitations, would experience more difficulty complying with the regulations than large firms. To understand the difficulties imposed by the regulations on small firms, we interviewed ten small firms in Delaware and New Jersey, states with existing hazardous regulations similar to those being considered by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and evaluated their responses to state regulations. The impacts of the environmental regulations on the firms and on the risk levels of their businesses are discussed. Propositions for research into small firms compliance are developed. Possible means for reducing the regulatory burden on small firms while enhancing regulatory effectiveness are suggested.     

论国有银行贷款风险防御和规避机制的重新构造

针对当前贷款风险的现实情况，国有银行应该树立正确的现代的贷款风险观。建立起以安全性为核心的内部贷款风险约束机制；同时，国有银行应该为自身创造一个宽松的外部环境，加快商业化改革进程。