Variance bounds for estimators in autoregressive models with constraints

We consider nonlinear and heteroscedastic autoregressive models whose residuals are martingale increments with conditional distributions that fulfil certain constraints. We treat two classes of constraints: residuals depending on the past through some function of the past observations only, and residuals that are invariant under some finite group of transformations. We determine the efficient influence function for estimators of the autoregressive parameter in such models, calculate variance bounds, discuss information gains, and suggest how to construct efficient estimators. Without constraints, efficient estimators can be given by weighted least squares estimators. With the constraints considered here, efficient estimators are obtained differently, as one-step improvements of some initial estimator, similarly as in autoregressive models with independent increments.     

Lyceum 1511 and Mountain Crest High School: An International Exchange Program Reveals Educational Contrasts

Abstract

Mexico. The Story of Two Americas. By Stuart Chase, in collaboration with Marian Tyler. Illustrated by Diego Rivera. The Macmillan Company, New York, 1931. 338 pp. $3.00. Reviewed by Milton W. Hamilton.

Mexican Maze. By Carleton Beals. With Illustrations by Diego Rivera. J. Lippincott Company, Philadelphia, 1931. 370 pp. $3.00. Reviewed by Milton W. Hamilton.

The United States and Disarmament. By Benjamin H. Williams. Whittlesey House, McGraw-Hill Book Company, New York, 1931. 361 pp. Reviewed by Milton W. Hamilton.

Bolívar. A Contribution to the study of his political Ideas. By C. Parra-Perez. Translated by N. Andrew N. Cleven. Pittsburgh Printing Company, Pittsburgh, 1930. 198 pp. $3. Reviewed by A. Curtis Wilgus.

The Black Napoleon. The Story of Toussaint Louverture. By Percy Waxman. Harcourt, Brace and Company, New York, 1931. 298 pp. $3.50. Reviewed by A. Curtis Wilgus.

Coronado's Children. Tales of Lost Mines and Buried Treasures of the Southwest. By J. Frank Dobie. The Southwest Press, Dallas, 1930. xv, 367 pp. $3. Reviewed by A. Curtis Wilgus.

Dominicans in Early Florida. By The Very Rev. V. F. O'Daniel. The United States Catholic Historical Society, New York, 1930. xiii, 230 pp. Reviewed by A. Curtis Wilgus.

Historia de la Guerra del Guano y el Salitre o Guerra del Pacifico entre Chile, Bolivia y el Peru. Vol. I. Causas y origenes de la Guerra Naval. By Jacinto Lopez. De Laisne and Rossboro, Inc., New York, 1931. 413 pp. Reviewed by A. Curtis Wilgus.

A History of the United States Since the Civil War, Volume IV. By Ellis Paxson Oberholtzer. The Macmillan Company, New York, 1931. 718 pp. $5.25. Reviewed by Elmer Ellis.

Old France. By John G. Coulter; New York: G. P. Putnam's Sons, 1931, 600 pp. Français et Allemands. By Louis Reynaud; Paris: A. Fayard et Cie, 1931, 387 pp. Reviewed by Jacques Barzun.

Twelve Portraits of the French Revolution. By Henri Béraud. Translated by Madeleine Boyd. Little, Brown and Company, Boston, 1928. 831. pp. Reviewed by C. R. Hall

The Second Republic and Napoleon III. By René Arnaud. New York: Putnam's Sons, 1931. Pp. vii, 436. $4.50. Reviewed by Shepard B. Clough.

Prologue to Mexico. The story of a Search for a Place. By Marian Storm. Alfred A. Knopf, New York, 1931. xii, 328 pp. $3.50. Reviewed by A. Curtis Wilgus.

Mexico. A Study of Two Americas. By Stuart Chase. The Macraillan Company, New York, 1931. vii, 338 pp. $3.00. Reviewed by A. Curtis Wilgus.

The Genius of Mexico. Lectures Delivered before the Fifth Seminar in Mexico, 1930. Edited by Hubert C. Herring and Katharine Terrill. The Committee on Cultural Relations with Latin America, New York, 1931, ix, 334 pp. Reviewed by A. Curtis Wilgus.

Liberalism in Mexico, 1857–1929. By Wilfred Hardy Callcott. Stanford University Press, 1931. xiii, 410 pp. $5.00. Reviewed by A. Curtis Wilgus.

Mexico and its Heritage. By Ernest Gruening. The Century Company, New York, 1930. xix, 728 pp. $3.00. Reviewed by A. Curtis Wilgus.

Hero Stories for Children. By Earl A. Collins and Lyda Hale. The Macmillan Company, New York, 1931. 264 pp. Reviewed by

The First Three Hundred Years in America. By Marion G. Clark and Wilbur Fisk Gordy. Charles Scribner's Sons, New York, 1931. 436 pp. Reviewed by Roberta O'Hara.

Young America. By Charles F. Horne and Olive Bucks. Charles E. Merrill Co., New York, 1930. 328 pp. Reviewed by Roberta O'Hara.     

Pseudo-bayes estimation of multinomial proportions

In the simultaneous estimation of multinomial proportions, two estimators are developed which incorporate prior means and a prior parameter which reflects the accuracy of the prior means. These estimators possess substantially smaller risk than the standard estimator in a region of the parameter space and are much more robust than the conjugate Bayes estimator with respect to parameter values far from the prior mean. When vague prior information is available, these estimators and confidence regions derived from them appear to be attractive alternatives to the procedures based on the standard estimator.     

Revisiting management innovation and change programmes: strategic vision or tunnel vision?

The information systems (IS) and management literature, broadly conceived, is replete with management innovation and change programmes. All are designed to enhance business performance and competitive advantage. This paper examines five approaches which have been developed in the post-war period to improve business performance. They are Total Quality Management (TQM), Just-In-Time production management (JIT), Activity Based Costing (ABC), Business Process Re-engineering (BPR), and Process Innovation. By comparing and contrasting these approaches, it is found that considerable overlap exists in their scope, style, content, aims and objectives. In view of this, the paper argues that instead of re-inventing the wheel every few years with a new management innovation and change panacea or fad, a broader, inter-disciplinary perspective should be adopted which seeks to understand the wider ideological, historical and empirical perspective which underpins these ideas. This is instead of the tunnel vision approach which seeks only to place these ideas in a narrow organisational or managerial context.     

高校教务管理浅论

高等学校教务管理工作运行的好坏,直接影响到教学质量的优劣,因而必须加强教务管理工作.加强教务管理,首先要有明确的工作目标,其次要加强教学管理队伍建设,努力提高队伍素质,再次是要做到严格管理计划,加强制度管理.     

我国民事行政检察制度的完善与重构

我国的民事行政检察制度经过数十年的曲折发展,至今已成为我国法律监督体系的重要组成部分,但由于立法的先天不足和实践中存在的种种困难,民事行政检察监督处境仍很尴尬,监督效果也大打折扣。民事行政检察监督何去何从,已成为亟待解决的问题。因此,我们深入分析了存在的民事检察监督范围过于狭窄、监督的方式单一、抗诉后再审的周期过长等问题及主要原因,并提出了构建检、法权力平等的检察监督机制、完善民行抗诉机制、确立民事执行检察监督机制、建立民事公诉机制等符合中国现实的可行性民事行政检察制度,希望对完善和发展我国民行检察制度有所裨益。     

高校女教师心理健康状况调查研究

用《卡特尔十六种人格因素》和《症状自评量表》对高校200名教师进行测评,结果发现高校女教师和男教师在5个因子上存在差异,女教师与常模在人际关系和偏执上差异显著。针对女教师相对自卑、高忧虑,相对有较低的心理健康水平,在此提出了提高女教师心理健康的对策。     

我国农村土地动力制度创新的系统思考

农村土地动力制度包括原始推动力、持续发展力、外部吸拉力三大要素。我国目前面临着原始推动力不足、持续发展力残缺、外部吸拉力疲软三大困境。为此,应采取切实可行措施予以完善,具体政策选择是:增加农业投入,充实原始推动力;提高农民素质,改善持续发展力;优化外部环境,增强外部吸拉力。     

建设电子政务与提升政府能力初探

文章立足信息技术、尤其是网络技术发展的现实背景,运用政治学与行政学的有关原理,探讨了建设电子政务与提升政府能力这一问题。为此,首先从历史的角度,阐述了科学技术与政府能力提升的关系;继而从现实的角度,分析了电子政务在政府能力提升中具有的实际功能;最后从发展的角度,探讨了我国建设电子政务提升政府能力应创设的条件。     

论人事争议解决机制的改革与完善

目前我国各类人事争议的数量不断增多,但由于人事争议立法不尽完善,解决机制存在诸多缺憾,导致实践中人事争议案件的解决困难重重,因此,完善人事争议解决机制已迫在眉睫。本文对人事争议的概念及我国人事争议解决机制存在的问题进行了探讨,提出了完善我国人事争议解决机制的合理化建议,以期对完善相关立法有所裨益。