SHRINKAGE PREDICTION IN THE EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION WITH A PRIOR INTERVAL FOR THE SCALE PARAMETER

The author proposes the best shrinkage predictor of a preassigned dominance level for a future order statistic of an exponential distribution, assuming a prior estimate of the scale parameter is distributed over an interval according to an arbitrary distribution with known mean. Based on a Type II censored sample from this distribution, we predict the future order statistic in another independent sample from the same distribution. The predictor is constructed by incorporating a preliminary confidence interval for the scale parameter and a class of shrinkage predictors constructed here. It improves considerably classical predictors for all values of the scale parameter within its dominance interval containing the confidence interval of a preassigned level.     

Current challenges in statistics: large-lecture courses

Each semester approximately 80% of the students taught by the Florida State University Department of Statistics are enrolled in STA 3014: Fundamental Business Statistics. During the academic year this course is taught in large lecture sections of 250 students each. It is either the only statistics course or one of two statistics courses taken in their undergraduate career for probably 90% of these students. A similar situation exists in many statistics departments around the nation.

These large introductory courses offer us the opportunity to introduce the power of statistics to a large fraction of our future business leaders. In the past it appears that this opportunity has often been missed. In fact, some suggest that these courses help contribute to the general public's negative attitude toward statistics courses, the discipline of statistics, and statisticians.

Hence, I propose that one of the current challenges in statistics is the challenge of improving the quality of these courses so that statistics may contribute to the improvement of quality and productivity in the United States, a vital national issue. In this paper I report on my experiences in grappling with this challenge in STA 3014.     

Hierarchical bayes estimation of normal variances with application to a random effect model

The problem of simultaneously estimating p normal variances is investigated when the parameters are believed a priori to be similar in size. A hierarchical Bayes approach is employed and the resulting estimator is compared to common estimators used including one proposed by Box and Tiao (1973) using a Bayesian approach with a noninformative prior. The technique is then applied to estimate components of variance in the one way layout random effect model of the analysis of variance.     

Minimaxity of empirical bayes estimators of the means of independent normal variables with unequal variances

The problem of simultaneous estimation of normal means is considered when variances are unequal and the loss is sum of squared errors. Minimaxity or non-minimaxity of empirical Bayes estimators is investigated when the common prior distribution is given by normal one with mean 0. Minimaxity results for the case when the loss is a weighted sum of squared errors is also given. Monte Carlo simulation results are given to compare the risk behavior of the empirical Bayes estimator with those of other minimax ones.     

访谈类电视节目对话语篇的动态建构过程探析

语篇是具有交际意义的基本语言单位。以访谈类电视节目话语语篇为研究对象,以语篇语言学、语用学等领域的相关理论为理论基础,对访谈类电视节目这种对话体语篇的动态建构过程的深入剖析主要包括三个方面：“言语行为对”的基本内涵;“言语行为对”的基本类型,“言语行为对”的组配关系。在访谈类电视节目语篇的结构中,对话体语篇从形式上看是由一系列的言语行为配对关系构成的一个意义结构体,在内容上具有其内在的语义相关性,而语义的相关性很大程度上是跨话轮话题推进的结果。     

青岛西海岸居民生活质量影响因素分析及改善措施研究

基于青岛市分市、区统计数据研究青岛西海岸居民生活质量的改进措施,重点考察原黄岛区、原胶南市以及青岛市其他相关市区的居民消费水平、就业增长、工资水平、教育状况、医疗卫生、社会福利、社会救济、居民通讯状况、生活便利性等密切关平民生的几个方面,探讨了影响居民生活质量改善的“短板”因素。未采应缩小原胶南市与原黄岛区居民收入差距,促进原黄岛区就业岗位增加,增加原黄岛区小学、中学的学校数量,增加原胶南市医疗机构数量、医疗设施和医务人员以及提高原胶南市居民生活的便利性。     

重建社会资本:改进社会治理方式的新路径

从社会管理到社会治理,体现党和政府在创新社会治理体制理论层面的一个大跃升。社会资本理论中的信任、规范、公民参与网络与社会治理的内涵有着内在的契合性,对改进治理方式提供了一个新的路径选择。重建社会资本,改进社会治理方式,应从政府、社会、公民三种角度入手,即建立廉价服务型政府,重建政府信任;社会力量的自我革新;一种价值文化的重新树立。     

文化产业竞争力评价指标体系构建与实证分析——以华东六省一市为例

随着经济全球化的发展,文化产品和服务的生产和流通也日趋国际化,文化产业已经成为全球经济与社会发展的重要组成部分。从国际竞争的整体态势来看,通过不断提升文化产业竞争力来培育国家和区域的“软实力”,已成为世界各国提升其国际竞争力的重要战略。通过对文化产业竞争力进行机理分析,构建了华东六省一市文化产业竞争力的分析框架和模型,采用ANP统计方法、SPSS和EXCEL软件进行处理、合成和分析数据,定性分析与定量分析相结合,建立了文化产业竞争力的评价指标体系和评价方法,对华东六省一市文化产业竞争力进行了实证分析。     

应然与实然：人权保障视角下的民事审判

司法对人权保障需要几个环节,即接近司法的机制、程序保障机制、司法环境“净化”机制。民事审判与人权保障是紧密联系的,主要表现为：程序权利、实体权利内在一致,人权的存在是民事审判的前提,民事审判为人权保障提供发展空间。当前民事审判中人权保障还存在不尽人意之处,如法院内外不适当的引导,司法权威和法官胆略不足,制度障碍造成人权保障失衡,观念错位导致民事权益保障不力等等。因此,需从推动民事审判改革、提高法官司法能力等方面加以完善。