循环经济理论的国内外实践

循环经济理论是上个世纪末环境革命的产物。循环经济要求以“减量化(Reduce)、再使用(Reuse)、再循环(Recycle)”的3R原则为社会经济活动的准则。在发达国家,循环经济正在形成一股潮流与趋势,从物质层面、体制层面、价值层面全方位地改变着社会经济的运行。本文概略地介绍了循环经济的起源、内涵及国内外的成功实践,并介绍了我国生态工业园区的建设情况。     

ELICITING A DIRECTED ACYCLIC GRAPH FOR A MULTIVARIATE TIME SERIES OF VEHICLE COUNTS IN A TRAFFIC NETWORK

The problem of modelling multivariate time series of vehicle counts in traffic networks is considered. It is proposed to use a model called the linear multiregression dynamic model (LMDM). The LMDM is a multivariate Bayesian dynamic model which uses any conditional independence and causal structure across the time series to break down the complex multivariate model into simpler univariate dynamic linear models. The conditional independence and causal structure in the time series can be represented by a directed acyclic graph (DAG). The DAG not only gives a useful pictorial representation of the multivariate structure, but it is also used to build the LMDM. Therefore, eliciting a DAG which gives a realistic representation of the series is a crucial part of the modelling process. A DAG is elicited for the multivariate time series of hourly vehicle counts at the junction of three major roads in the UK. A flow diagram is introduced to give a pictorial representation of the possible vehicle routes through the network. It is shown how this flow diagram, together with a map of the network, can suggest a DAG for the time series suitable for use with an LMDM.     

谁开创了贝叶斯学派？——对拉普拉斯1774年一篇文章的回顾

1764年,贝叶斯的遗作《机遇理论中一个问题的解》，是当今统计学界贝叶斯学派的开山之作，然而直到20世纪，贝叶斯的文章却并未对后世贝叶斯学派的发展产生重大影响。事实上，真正促使贝叶斯的思想在科学界得到广泛传播的关键人物是大科学家拉普拉斯。1774年，拉普拉斯发表的关于贝叶斯理论的里程碑式的文章，使现代读者充分认识到拉普拉斯对贝叶斯学派发展所起的巨大作用，并从拉普拉斯的思想中获得了有益的新知。     

从两个“历史决议”看中国共产党政治民主的发展

对两个“历史决议”的研究,一直是学术界关注的焦点。文章试图从政治学的视角,对两个“历史决议”的文本进行一个全新的解读,通过对两个“历史决议”形成过程和内容的比较,勾勒出中国共产党政治民主的发展历程,揭示出政治民主作为一个特定历史概念所表现出来的民主基本原则的共性与不同时期、不同社会、不同制度下的个性特征。     

我国社会主义政治文明建设的几个着重点

建设中国特色的社会主义政治文明,是我国社会主义现代化建设的重要目标和任务。在进行我国社会主义政治文明建设时,应坚持党的领导,坚持人民当家作主和依法治国相统一的原则;发展民主政治,在人民参与社会主义政治文明建设中树立新思维;建立与具体政治行为相结合的政绩考核机制。     

论物权法之区分原则

物权行为的独立性决定了区分原则的必然存在.区分原则,不是物权变动与原因行为的区分,而是引起物权变动的物权行为与原因行为即债权行为的区分.区分原则无论在理论或实践上均有极其重要的意义,因而在即将通过的物权法中,应确立区分原则的重要地位.     

主审法官负责制的实现条件及当前应解决的问题

主审法官负责制是人民法院为实现司法公正解决司法独立问题所进行的内部结构性改革,在推行时须注意五大实现条件和解决好当前存在的三大问题。在实现条件上,要求主审法官有较高的业务素质和良好的政治道德素质,为此,应搞好法官的选任工作,在此基础上,建立完善的法官任职保障、物质保障制度和落实主审法官职务上的权利和义务。而须解决的三大问题是,当前应对现有法官队伍进行选拔淘汰并合理分流,对已任或新任法官加强培养工作,增强其业务技能,对行政化的审判业务运作机制应予以消除,实现主审法官独立办案。     

接收天线等效电路的严格推导

从场的观点出发,利用反应概念并结合互易定理严格证明了接收天线可以等效为传统基于开路电压的等效模型,并指出了当电场分别与接收模式下和发射模式下的电流作反应时,将得到不同的等效电路参数;结合偶极子天线的数值例子,说明了传统的开路电压模型在接收系统的分析中更为方便、合理。     

Causal Reasoning from Longitudinal Data*

Abstract. This paper reviews some of the key statistical ideas that are encountered when trying to find empirical support to causal interpretations and conclusions, by applying statistical methods on experimental or observational longitudinal data. In such data, typically a collection of individuals are followed over time, then each one has registered a sequence of covariate measurements along with values of control variables that in the analysis are to be interpreted as causes, and finally the individual outcomes or responses are reported. Particular attention is given to the potentially important problem of confounding. We provide conditions under which, at least in principle, unconfounded estimation of the causal effects can be accomplished. Our approach for dealing with causal problems is entirely probabilistic, and we apply Bayesian ideas and techniques to deal with the corresponding statistical inference. In particular, we use the general framework of marked point processes for setting up the probability models, and consider posterior predictive distributions as providing the natural summary measures for assessing the causal effects. We also draw connections to relevant recent work in this area, notably to Judea Pearl's formulations based on graphical models and his calculus of so‐called do‐probabilities. Two examples illustrating different aspects of causal reasoning are discussed in detail.     

Communication of risk: health hazards from mobile phones

Summary. Possible health hazards from mobile phones arise from the use of the phones themselves and via the base stations that relay signals. Except for an increase in traffic accidents induced by the use of mobile phones in cars the evidence for a health hazard is at most indirect, but it cannot be entirely dismissed; the phones have not been widely used for sufficiently long for direct epidemiological studies to have high sensitivity for detecting any induced incidence of cancer, for example. The background and evidence are briefly reviewed and the steps taken in the UK to make information widely available described.