英语专业基础阶段的文化导入

从语言与文化的角度,说明英语专业基础阶段文化导入的重要性,强调语言教学和文化教学密不可分的关系,并针对基础阶段学生的特点,提出了文化导入的基本原则和方法,以有助于增强基础阶段学生的文化敏感性,加深对语言文化功能的理解,提高他们跨文化交际的能力。     

Preference stability and substitution of indifferents: a rejoinder to Seidenfeld

Seidenfeld (Seidenfeld, T. [1988a], Decision theory without 'Independence' or without 'Ordering', Economics and Philosophy 4: 267-290) gave an argument for Independence based on a supposition that admissibility of a sequential option is preserved under substitution of indifferents at choice nodes (S). To avoid a natural complaint that (S) begs the question against a critic of Independence, he provided an independent proof of (S) in his (Seidenfeld, T. [1988b], Rejoinder [to Hammond and McClennen], Economics and Philosophy 4: 309-315). In reply to my (Rabinowicz, W. [1995], To have one's cake and eat it too: Sequential choice and expected-utility violations, The Journal of Philosophy 92: 586-620), in which I argue that the proof is invalid, Seidenfeld (Seidenfeld, T. [2000], Substitution of indifferent options at choice nodes and admissibility: A reply to Rabinowicz, Theory and Decision 48: 305–310 this issue) submits that I fail to give due consideration to one of the underlying assumptions of his derivation: it is meant to apply only to those cases in which the agent's preferences are stable throughout the sequential decision process. The purpose of this note is to clarify the notion of preference stability so as meet this objection.     

论培根归纳逻辑

弗兰西斯·培根在对旧逻辑批判的基础上,创立了以观察和实验为基础的归纳法--科学归纳法.培根归纳法的问世,创立了近代归纳逻辑的第一个形态.培根归纳法的特质包括其归纳法是一种排除归纳法,突出了分析方法,注重证据的质量,与实验自然科学的兴起相适应,其归纳方法论包含着某些朴素的辩证法因素.尽管,培根的归纳法有一定的局限性;但是,培根的归纳法在近现代归纳逻辑的发展中的影响和作用是不容低估的.应当用唯物辩证法的观点和方式,对培根的归纳法进行认识和评价.     

Testing psychological forward induction and the updating of beliefs in the lost wallet game

This paper studies psychological forward induction and the updating of beliefs in the lost wallet game (Dufwenberg & Gneezy, 2000), which is required to derive a prediction for guilt averse agents. Our experiment tests whether the second movers psychologically induct forward and update their beliefs after observing their paired first mover's decision by eliciting beliefs with different second mover knowledge of first mover decision, depending on treatment. We find that second movers do update their beliefs conditional on receiving information on the first mover’s action, supporting psychological forward induction.     

休谟因果观述评

休谟把经验科学的方法运用于“人性”问题的探讨 ,认为关于实际的知识都建立在因果律之上。而因果律来自经验 ,经验是习惯 ,从而否定归纳推理的可证性 ,使古典经验主义终结。他的观念关系和实际事物两类命题的划分在哲学史上首次区分了分析与综合。休谟认为 ,综合知识只能最后归于心理作用 ,任何逻辑论只能是诡辩和幻想。休谟坚持因果关系的存在 ,他只是怀疑它的可证性和归纳推理的有效性。康德受此启发 ,从人类理性的角度提出“先天综合判断”,这也构成了现代认识论不可回避而又难以回答的问题     

On the Necessity of Structure in an Arbitrary World

Abstract

The term response generalization has been poorly defined and has, over many years, been a source of controversy for applied researchers who must grapple with results that show changes in behaviors outside of the response class targeted by their intervention. The present discussion seeks to differentiate response generalization from such terms as response covariation and induction. Instead, response generalization is redefined in the context of response classes and concurrent schedules of reinforcement.     

关于绿蓝悖论的消解

邓桂芳和徐敏对笔者关于绿蓝悖论的解决方案主要提出两点质疑。对其第一点质疑,笔者指出,直接观察属于感受性,而感受性本质上是私人性的,因此,关于两个证据陈述是否表述同一观察需要给出具有公共性的论证,此类论证包括这两个证据陈述是否可以互推。对其第二点质疑,只需对证据陈述稍加补充便可解决。     

非合作状态下制造商与垄断供应商之间的谈判博弈研究

通过构造一个2级供应链,建立了垄断供应商和制造商在非合作状态下的博弈模型,利用逆向归纳法求出了垄断供应商和制造商的非合作均衡解,并证明了垄断供应商优先选择生产成本低的制造商作为谈判对象.同时,提出了制造商之间的技术实力差距对非合作均衡态的影响,如果2个制造商之间的技术实力相差悬殊,市场将出现比较稳定的非合作均衡现象,如果技术实力接近,将出现争夺谈判权的博弈现象.     

MML clustering of multi-state,Poisson, von Mises circular and Gaussian distributions

Minimum Message Length (MML) is an invariant Bayesian point estimation technique which is also statistically consistent and efficient. We provide a brief overview of MML inductive inference (Wallace C.S. and Boulton D.M. 1968. Computer Journal, 11: 185–194; Wallace C.S. and Freeman P.R. 1987. J. Royal Statistical Society (Series B), 49: 240–252; Wallace C.S. and Dowe D.L. (1999). Computer Journal), and how it has both an information-theoretic and a Bayesian interpretation. We then outline how MML is used for statistical parameter estimation, and how the MML mixture modelling program, Snob (Wallace C.S. and Boulton D.M. 1968. Computer Journal, 11: 185–194; Wallace C.S. 1986. In: Proceedings of the Nineteenth Australian Computer Science Conference (ACSC-9), Vol. 8, Monash University, Australia, pp. 357–366; Wallace C.S. and Dowe D.L. 1994b. In: Zhang C. et al. (Eds.), Proc. 7th Australian Joint Conf. on Artif. Intelligence. World Scientific, Singapore, pp. 37–44. See http://www.csse.monash.edu.au/-dld/Snob.html) uses the message lengths from various parameter estimates to enable it to combine parameter estimation with selection of the number of components and estimation of the relative abundances of the components. The message length is (to within a constant) the logarithm of the posterior probability (not a posterior density) of the theory. So, the MML theory can also be regarded as the theory with the highest posterior probability. Snob currently assumes that variables are uncorrelated within each component, and permits multi-variate data from Gaussian, discrete multi-category (or multi-state or multinomial), Poisson and von Mises circular distributions, as well as missing data. Additionally, Snob can do fully-parameterised mixture modelling, estimating the latent class assignments in addition to estimating the number of components, the relative abundances of the parameters and the component parameters. We also report on extensions of Snob for data which has sequential or spatial correlations between observations, or correlations between attributes.     

浅析卡尔·波普尔对归纳法的质疑

20世纪初涌现的系列科技成果使归纳法遭受质疑，波普尔利用证伪主义对归纳法进行了彻底地批判，并提出了科学知识增长模式。卡尔·波普尔彻底反对归纳法的思想存在着局限性，归纳并不象卡尔·波普尔说的那样，应当从科学方法中剔除出去，其实它和演绎一样，是人们认识的基本方法之一，不可或缺。