袁宏道文学思想再认识

明中叶以后 ,以公安三袁为主力的公安派高举“性灵”大旗 ,开创了与“复古”论调大相径庭的一代风气 ,影响甚大。而公安三袁中尤以袁宏道为重 ,袁宏道的文学思想表现在三个方面 :一、识时通变的文学发展观 ;二、“独抒性灵”的创作主张 ;三、“本色轻淡”的艺术趣味。     

巡视制度的历史考察及借鉴意义

巡视制度是当前完善党内监督的重大举措 ,这种制度古而有之。以史为鉴 ,汲取经验 ,滋补今天的巡视工作 ,使之走上经常化、制度化和规范化的轨道     

BURR CRITICAL VALUE APPROXIMATIONS FOR TESTS OF AUTOCORRELATION AND HETEROSCEDASTICITY

The paper evaluates the accuracy of Burr approximations of critical values and p-values for test a of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity in the linear regression model.     

物理学革命中的哲学论战——纪念爱因斯坦逝世50周年

在19世纪末20世纪初的物理学革命中,从X射线、放射性和电子等重大发现,到相对论和量子力学的相继创建,使得物理学基本观念发生了根本变革,并对一系列物理学哲学问题展开了激烈争论。本文对物理学革命中的哲学论战进行述评,旨在深化科学哲学界对这一时期物理学哲学问题的系统研究,并以此纪念爱因斯坦逝世50周年。     

Creating a reference to a complex emergency situation using time series methods: war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999

Impacts of complex emergencies or relief interventions have often been evaluated by absolute mortality compared to international standardized mortality rates. A better evaluation would be to compare with local baseline mortality of the affected populations. A projection of population-based survival data into time of emergency or intervention based on information from before the emergency may create a local baseline reference. We find a log-transformed Gaussian time series model where standard errors of the estimated rates are included in the variance to have the best forecasting capacity. However, if time-at-risk during the forecasted period is known then forecasting might be done using a Poisson time series model with overdispersion. Whatever, the standard error of the estimated rates must be included in the variance of the model either in an additive form in a Gaussian model or in a multiplicative form by overdispersion in a Poisson model. Data on which the forecasting is based must be modelled carefully concerning not only calendar-time trends but also periods with excessive frequency of events (epidemics) and seasonal variations to eliminate residual autocorrelation and to make a proper reference for comparison, reflecting changes over time during the emergency. Hence, when modelled properly it is possible to predict a reference to an emergency-affected population based on local conditions. We predicted childhood mortality during the war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999. We found an increased mortality in the first half-year of the war and a mortality corresponding to the expected one in the last half-year of the war.     

劳动能力丧失损害赔偿的理论依据问题

劳动能力本质上属于健康权人格利益,不是独立的人格权。劳动能力的丧失是原来具有劳动能力的自然人受到他人的侵害后而致使身体残疾的结果。劳动能力丧失赔偿的所得丧失说、劳动能力丧失说、生活来源丧失说,都存在缺陷,应当予以重构。在确定我国丧失劳动能力损害赔偿制度的理论论据时,应当采用一种更为科学的理论,即以劳动能力为基础的收入丧失说。在实践中,则要以此为依据来确定劳动收入赔偿金、残疾用具费、生活上增加的必需支出、特殊医疗费、被扶养人生活费、精神抚慰金等内容。     

一人公司的法律规制

一人公司法律地位在新公司法上的确立,并不是说在此之前不存在这种公司,事实上一人公司尤其是形式上的普通公司实质上的一人公司是广泛存在的。一人公司与传统公司法人制度的冲突,使它在传统公司法框架体系下很难得以规范,而公司法人人格否认法理作为一种判例法上的重要原则,可以有效弥补成文法上的不足,从而在有效规制一人公司方面具有极为广泛的运用价值。一人公司需要信用的土壤,发挥政府和监管部门的信息披露职能是十分重要的。     

论唐代科举制策试的匡时济俗功能

唐代士人参加科举制策试或私下模拟策试,都直言不讳地批评时弊,提出应对方案。他们的参政议政资格,只要报名科考即可自动获得。皇帝在开科诏令和策试题目中每每自谦德薄才寡,坦言施政失误,国家危难,恳请考生帮助自己。官方对于时政问题从来不规定标准答案,任随考生自主思考,自由表达。这种正视现实的勇气和征集、接受意见的诚恳态度,是唐代统治阶级自强、自信的一种体现。“上下雷同,非国家之福”,是时人共识。在这种背景下,策试才能产生一定的匡时济俗功能。然而,由统治阶级举办的策试,尽管可以揭示某些表层化的社会问题,却无力解决社会顽症;再加上残酷、复杂的政治派别斗争,策试匡时济俗功能的发挥必然受到限制。     

理论实证相印语言文化相融--胡正武《训诂阐微集》评议

胡正武新著《训诂阐微集》在训诂方面所展现的,具有理论与实证相得益彰,语言与文化水乳交融,语料丰富内容广博等特点,这是与其深厚扎实的学术功底,别具一格的研究方法相为表里的。胡君甘于寂寞的治学态度,该书朴实无华的语言风格在当今急功近利、充满躁动的商品经济社会里,尤其显示其现实意义。     

BAYESIAN SUBSET SELECTION AND MODEL AVERAGING USING A CENTRED AND DISPERSED PRIOR FOR THE ERROR VARIANCE

This article proposes a new data‐based prior distribution for the error variance in a Gaussian linear regression model, when the model is used for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging. For a given subset of variables in the model, this prior has a mode that is an unbiased estimator of the error variance but is suitably dispersed to make it uninformative relative to the marginal likelihood. The advantage of this empirical Bayes prior for the error variance is that it is centred and dispersed sensibly and avoids the arbitrary specification of hyperparameters. The performance of the new prior is compared to that of a prior proposed previously in the literature using several simulated examples and two loss functions. For each example our paper also reports results for the model that orthogonalizes the predictor variables before performing subset selection. A real example is also investigated. The empirical results suggest that for both the simulated and real data, the performance of the estimators based on the prior proposed in our article compares favourably with that of a prior used previously in the literature.