Understanding lifetime homeless duration: investigating wave 1 findings from the Journeys Home project

The variation in the amount of time people remain homeless has important policy implications with respect to reducing long‐term homelessness and designing more effective early intervention approaches. This paper examines the factors that influence lifetime homeless duration in Australia using data from the first wave of Journeys Home, a new national survey of individuals exposed to high levels of housing insecurity that employs more rigorous sampling methods than previously used. Those at increased risk of long durations of homelessness over their lifetimes include people who had less family support in childhood, shorter work histories and lower education levels. We also find evidence supporting the idea that people who first experience homelessness at a young age are more likely to experience persistent homelessness.     

Nonstandard Work Schedules and Marital Instability

Based on subsample of 3,476 married couples drawn from two waves of the National Survey of Families and Household, this study examines the extent to which working evening, night, or rotating schedules and weekends affects the likelihood of marriages ending in separation or divorce within approximately 5 years. Logistic regression analysis revealed that this relationship depends on the presence of children and is specific to the type of nonstandard schedule, the gender of the spouse, and the duration of marriage. Among men with children, married less than 5 years at Wave 1, working fixed nights made separation or divorce some six times more likely relative to working days. Among women with children, married more than 5 years at Wave 1, working fixed nights increased the odds by three times, and might have had an effect during the earlier years of marriage as well (although not statistically significant). These findings are evident when controlling for the number of hours worked as well as for demographic variables, and when considering, in addition, the husband's and wife's gender ideologies and the extent to which couples spent time alone together. The question of whether spouses in troubled marriages are more likely to move into night or rotating shifts was explored, but this did not seem to be the case.     

Age at migration,family instability,and timing of sexual onset

This study builds on and extends previous research on nativity variations in adolescent health and risk behavior by addressing three questions: (1) whether and how generational status and age at migration are associated with timing of sexual onset among U.S. adolescents; (2) whether and how family instability mediates associations between nativity and sexual debut; and (3) whether and how these associations vary by gender. We find that first- and second-generation immigrant youth initiate sexual activity later than native youth. Foreign-born youth who migrate after the start of adolescence exhibit the latest sexual onset; boys’ sexual behavior is particularly sensitive to age at migration. Parental union stability is protective for first- and second-generation youth, especially boys; however, instability in co-residence with parents accelerates sexual debut for foreign-born girls, and dilutes protections from parental marital stability. Use of a non-English language at home delays sexual onset for immigrant girls, but not boys.     

中国经济以自己的方式走出成熟发展的道路

在中国采取措施抵御美国金融危机连锁影响的过程中,引来国外对中国经济前景的质疑。中国经济出现增长速度下降,但速度下降不等于中国处于经济危机。关键在于速度的变化由以建立的基础。寻求新的能量,为中国经济的持续发展提供新的承载力。120年的经历说明,国家环境稳定是经济稳定增长的首要基础。未来60年,中国经济体系在运行和不断调整中逐渐成熟,在成熟与成功中逐渐积淀出自己的特色。特色是成熟与成功的标志。中国经济会以自己的方式走出一条成熟发展的道路。     

On the power of some tests for examining the stability of regression coefficients

The main objective of the study is to compare four different procedures to test for the stability of regression coefficients. The comparisons are based on a numerical study and are with respect to their abilities to detect various simple forms of parameter instabilities. Besides the power comparisons a special interest is directed towards the choice of “window length” in the tests based on moving sums of squared recursive and ordinary least-squares residuals.     

Time for a change? Predictors of child care changes by low-income families

Instability in child care arrangements can negatively affect children's development, especially in low-income families. However, few studies have examined what predicts changes over time in child care arrangements. This paper presents findings from a unique multiyear study tracking child care use in low-income families. We estimate rich quantitative models to analyze the relationships among child, household, and care provider characteristics and four different types of changes. We find turnover in child care arrangements to be common in this low-income population. Over a period of six months, half of the children changed primary provider. Child care changes were frequently related to job loss, changes in family composition, or the changing availability of caregivers. While concerns have been raised that short spells of child care subsidy receipt cause child care instability, we found that subsidy use was not associated with higher rates of change. In addition, we found that the lower a parent's assessment of the child's experience in a particular arrangement in the prior time period, the higher the likelihood of changing providers by the next survey wave. These results indicate that low-income parents recognize quality factors and change arrangements to improve the quality of care.     

Photographs of young generations on the Dutch labour market

In the light of the decline of “standard” employment relationships in many countries and its particular effect on young people, this article provides a detailed analysis of the labour market trajectories of early-career workers in the Netherlands between 1985 and 2014, adopting the approach of the sequence analysis of life-course events. Using two indicators for instability (entropy and turbulence), the authors find that cohorts that entered the labour market after 2000, and particularly in 2008, experience greater employment status instability despite the flexicurity policies applied. Transitions into stable employment are the exception rather than the rule.     

In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?

Abstract

It is widely known that significant in-sample evidence of predictability does not guarantee significant out-of-sample predictability. This is often interpreted as an indication that in-sample evidence is likely to be spurious and should be discounted. In this paper, we question this interpretation. Our analysis shows that neither data mining nor dynamic misspecification of the model under the null nor unmodelled structural change under the null are plausible explanations of the observed tendency of in-sample tests to reject the no-predictability null more often than out-of-sample tests. We provide an alternative explanation based on the higher power of in-sample tests of predictability in many situations. We conclude that results of in-sample tests of predictability will typically be more credible than results of out-of-sample tests.     

EM-FEL边带不稳定性的单粒子理论分析

利用单粒子理论分析了主频电磁波为常振幅缓变相移的电磁波泵自由电子激光(EM-FEL)的边带不稳定性,导出了色散方程,进行了详细地分析与讨论,并求出在几种特殊情况下的不稳定性区域与最大线性增长率,由此得出一些重要的结论。     

The Geographic Context of Divorce: Do Neighborhoods Matter?

Neighborhood effects on family formation processes have recently received considerable attention, but no study has yet examined the impact of neighborhood socioeconomic status on marital dissolution. This analysis merges data from 3,523 respondents to the Panel Study of Income Dynamics with census data describing the socioeconomic composition of local communities. Although a multiitem index of neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage is positively and significantly related to the risk of divorce, this association can be explained entirely by the low incomes of husbands in distressed neighborhoods. Thus, there appears to be no direct causal influence of neighborhood socioeconomic status on marital instability. To the extent that neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage increases the prevalence of single‐parent families, it apparently does so by increasing rates of out‐of‐wedlock childbearing rather than by disrupting existing marriages among couples with children.