区域消费波动与区域经济增长关系的计量分析

以新古典经济学为理论依据,在完全可替代生产函数的基础上构建了基于区域消费波动与经济增长的分析模型。利用长系列的区域经济产出(GDP)及其构成数据、劳动力投入数据等,计算、模拟了从1981—2000年我国省市区消费波动对区域经济增长的影响。模型结果显示:(1)区域资本、劳动力投入的增长对我国区域经济增长的作用是积极的,起到了推动作用;其中,以资本投入增长对区域经济的增长推进作用最大,其次是劳动力增长的作用。(2)区域消费的波动对区域经济增长产生不利影响,起阻碍作用。     

Family Mapping: A Cumulative Measure of Family Structure and Instability

Family structure is an important area of study given the growing rates of family instability. The research, however, is limited due to broad definitions and measurement methods that only consider one time point. Using a sample of young adults (N = 398), our goal was to develop a user-friendly implementation procedure and coding system that efficiently captures a broad range of information. The coding system offered includes multiple levels of detail and hundreds of previously untapped variables. Examinations of standard methods versus the cumulative family mapping method revealed additional variance explained in measures of substance use, providing early indications of measurement utility.     

Homelessness as One Component of Housing Instability and Its Impact on the Development of Children in Poverty

The number offamilies with children living in poverty and experiencing housing instability and homelessness has increased dramatically over the last two decades. Current public policy decisions will lead to further increases. Understanding the impact of this instability on the emotional, behavioral, and cognitive development of children is imperative. Few studies cn'tically examine the effects ofinstability on both domiciled and homeless children. This research examined the effects of homelessness and housing instability on 133 children 8 to 12 years of age living in poverty. Results indicate that whether a child is currently homeless is not as significant as overall stability which may have a long ranging effect on a child's future development.     

Women's Perception of a Sad Married Life and Higher Marital Instability: How Does Children's Gender Matter? A Perspective from Rural Haryana,India

Earlier studies showed that the presence of a son in the family consistently decreases the likelihood of marital instability. We investigated the determinants of a perceived sad married life and high marital instability by analyzing data from an in-depth interview of 329 women in an ethnographic survey conducted in five villages of Haryana state of India during the year 2003. Our study provides empirical evidence of an association between children's gender and women's perception of their married life as sad in rural India.     

当前建设稳定和谐社会的几点思考

党和政府正在努力建设稳定和谐社会。社会稳定必须社会合理,社会合理人民才能安居乐业。当前,党和国家不仅要注意官员腐败等一些显性的影响社会稳定因素,同时还应当关注社会管理公开、公正、自愿、公平、信用、平等等一些隐性的、深层次的影响社会稳定因素,消除人们对社会的不满情绪,国家才能稳定和谐、繁荣富强、长治久安。     

Evaluation of incomplete multiple diagnostic tests,with an application in the colon cancer family registry study

Accurate diagnosis of a molecularly defined subtype of cancer is often an important step toward its effective control and treatment. For the diagnosis of some subtypes of a cancer, a gold standard with perfect sensitivity and specificity may be unavailable. In those scenarios, tumor subtype status is commonly measured by multiple imperfect diagnostic markers. Additionally, in many such studies, some subjects are only measured by a subset of diagnostic tests and the missing probabilities may depend on the unknown disease status. In this paper, we present statistical methods based on the EM algorithm to evaluate incomplete multiple imperfect diagnostic tests under a missing at random assumption and one missing not at random scenario. We apply the proposed methods to a real data set from the National Cancer Institute (NCI) colon cancer family registry on diagnosing microsatellite instability for hereditary non-polyposis colorectal cancer to estimate diagnostic accuracy parameters (i.e. sensitivities and specificities), prevalence, and potential differential missing probabilities for 11 biomarker tests. Simulations are also conducted to evaluate the small-sample performance of our methods.     

中国农村金融发展与贫困减少的经验研究

研究表明,金融发展与贫困减少之间存在密切联系。本文通过构建金融发展对贫困减少影响机制的计量模型,利用中国1980—2005年的时序数据分析了中国农村正规金融发展、金融波动和非正规金融发展对农村贫困减少的影响。研究结果显示:(1)农村正规金融发展有利于农村贫困减少,但是影响很小,并且对农村绝对贫困的影响远远大于对农村相对贫困的影响;(2)金融波动不利于农村贫困减少;(3)非正规金融发展对农村贫困减少也没有促进作用。因此,要加快对农村正规金融的改革,同时积极引导农村非正规金融的健康发展,尽早建立正规金融和非正规金融和谐共生的农村金融体系,减少金融波动对农村贫困减少的不良影响,为改善中国农村贫困状况创造良好的金融环境。     

The Role of Institutional Placement,Family Conflict,and Homosexuality in Homelessness Pathways Among Latino LGBT Youth in New York City

ABSTRACT

Despite the overrepresentation of Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender (LGBT) youth among the homeless, the processes leading to their homelessness are understudied. This ethnographic study sought to elucidate the role of sexual orientation in the pathway to housing instability among young gay men. Fieldwork included 18 months of participant observations in public spaces and at a homeless LGBT youth organization in New York City, as well as formal semistructured interviews with 14 Latino young men and five staff. Three distinct pathways emerged. Some youth became homeless after placement in state systems of care disrupted their social support systems, while others became homeless after extreme family conflict over sexual orientation. Nonetheless, most youths became homeless as a result of long-term processes of family disintegration in which normative adolescent development and disclosure of homosexuality exacerbated preexisting conflict. These findings suggest the need to examine the accumulation of risks before disclosure exacerbates family conflict and increases their risk of homelessness.     

Nowhere to go: Housing pathways of college students with foster care and homelessness experience

This study builds on previous research to understand longer term housing experiences in late adolescence and early adulthood for vulnerable college students. Using a biographical, qualitative method, we study high school and college housing and family circumstances for 27 students with homelessness or foster care experience enrolled in 4-year colleges in Georgia. We identified three different housing pathway types in high school—family homelessness, unaccompanied youth and foster care. Housing instability and frequent moves were common in high school among all housing pathway types. In college, students who were able to find low or no-cost housing and those who identified a foster care pathway in high school achieved greater housing stability. Others students experienced a continuation of housing instability that began in high school. Additional funding to cover the cost of on-campus housing would likely contribute to increased stability. Additional strategies, such as rental assistance programmes tailored for college students, may be needed to address housing instability for vulnerable college students. More research on the unmet housing needs and the consequences of housing instability during college for homeless and foster youth is needed to further a housing policy agenda that focuses on practical solutions.