资产价格波动与中国金融稳定发展

资产价格与金融市场稳定性之间存在着很强的相关性,资产价格波动会对一国金融机构带来诸多内部风险的隐患,如资产价格的上涨吸引了相当的信贷资金流入等。在不断开放及提高金融体系效率的前提下,如何应对资产价格的波动,是维护中国金融体系安全与稳定的一个关键问题。在考虑资产价格波动对金融稳定的传导过程中,不仅信用水平是重要的,而且未来信用水平的不确定性也是重要的,我们可以从资产价格波动引发金融不稳定的渠道和原因方面来分析资产价格波动对金融不稳定的影响。当前中国的资产价格波动表现得更为明显和剧烈,这将直接危及金融市场的稳定与经济发展。综合运用各方面政策以防范和化解危机,进一步完善信用体系,加强对金融工具的管理,将有利于中国金融体系的稳健良好运行。     

唐前期皇位传承观念及皇位继承不稳定原因再探讨

唐前期的皇位继承状况极其复杂。唐前期帝王都试图接受“立嫡以长”的传统，并努力将其作为制度付诸施行。然而，由于多种因素的影响，唐前期的皇位继承在遵守制度之外又表现出较大的灵活性，即不稳定性。从唐代统治者之关陇军事贵族出身和沾染胡化两方面来分析唐代的皇位传承观念，可以探讨出影响唐前期皇位继承的政治文化因素。     

The impact of socio-economic factors on political instability: A cross-country analysis

We argue that political instability is a good indicator of disturbances in development. Moreover we argue that the causality between the political instability and the economic growth is often mistaken to run from instability to growth. Thus we tested the hypothesis that political instability is dependent on economic growth and its underlying economic and social determinants, as well as the nature of the political system present in the country. 122 countries were considered in our study in the period between 1960 and 1988. Our results confirmed that several socio-economic factors including income growth rate, initial income level, and the nature of political regime affect political instability.     

The Real Crisis at the Mexico-U.S. Border: A Humanitarian and Not an Immigration Emergency

Misguided U.S. policies since 1980 have created a large undocumented population within the United States. Border militarization curtailed circular undocumented migration from Mexico, and Cold War politics precluded the acceptance of refugees from Central America fleeing violence and economic turmoil unleashed by America’s intervention in the region. Although undocumented migration from Mexico has ended, resources devoted to border apprehensions and internal deportations continue to rise, pushing an ever larger number of Central Americans into an immigrant detention system that is ill-equipped to handle them. Although the Trump administration portrays the situation as an immigration crisis, what is really unfolding along the border and within the United States is an unprecedented humanitarian cross that in so many ways is one of our own making.     

伊拉克战后动荡的历史根源探究

伊拉克目前的现实状况与其历史发展进程有着密不可分的联系。伊拉克在近现代民族国家发展历程中形成的＂强权依赖性＂构成了伊拉克战后动荡的根源。在这一特性的影响下,战后的伊拉克迅速蜕变为一个＂弱国家＂。美国重建政策与伊拉克＂弱国家＂形态间的失衡进一步加剧了伊拉克持续性的动荡并对其未来的局势发展产生了深远的影响。     

1895～1937年华北农民与市场关系演变的特征研究

1895～1937年,随着通商贸易的日渐增多,华北农村社会经济有了一定程度的发展,农民的生产活动也纳入了市场体系之中,农民与市场的关系变得日渐紧密起来。受诸多方面因素的影响,这种关系带有自己一些固有的特征,即迟滞性、被动性、不稳定性和农民社会流动的频繁性。     

A Test of the Family Stress Model Using a Remarriage Sample

ABSTRACT

The family stress model delineates the connections between economic hardship, economic pressure, marital interactions, marital quality, and, finally, marital instability. This study evaluated the family stress model in a sample of 661 remarried couples using structural equation modeling. The model was evaluated both within and between spouses. Consistent with the family stress model, marital instability and quality were influenced by economic hardship and pressure through decreased spousal warmth and increased spousal hostility. Implications for remarriage education and counseling are discussed.     

Determining Latent Classes of Cumulative Family Structure Experiences in Emerging Adulthood

ABSTRACT

Using a sample of emerging adults (N = 536), this study examined detailed cumulative family structure spanning birth through emerging adulthood. Latent class analysis was used to determine profiles of cumulative family structure experiences based on measures of family structure measured at 5 time points, duration in current family structure, the number of parent relationship transitions, and the number of sibling transitions. Two distinct stable groups, 2 distinct mostly stable groups, and 1 highly unstable group emerged. Additionally, we explored 2 demographic variables as predictors of class membership, and class-level differences on current levels of well-being with a sample of emerging adults.     

The Social Consequences of Insecure Jobs

Forms of insecure employment have been increasing all over Europe in recent decades. These developments have been welcomed by those who argued that these types of flexible employment would not only foster employment but could also help women, in particular, to positively combine work and family life. This vision was questioned by others who argued that flexible employment could have negative consequences for both occupational prospects and private and family life since it is often associated with greater insecurity and poorer working conditions. Relatively little research has been dedicated to the “social consequences” of insecure employment and its specific implications for work-life reconciliation issues. This paper contributes to this topic by linking research that addresses work-life conflict to the wider body of work dealing with job insecurity. It investigates the consequences of certain employment contracts on private and family life, taking into account information on current family life, future family plans and general well-being. It provides a series of test relating to the extent to which negative consequences in these areas might be attributable to the type of employment contract and how these vary between European countries. Analysis using ESS data from 2004 for western European countries confirms that insecure employment is accompanied by more problematic “social and family” situations. These negative consequences are partly shaped by the specific context provided by the country in question.

Marital Stability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Do Women’s Autonomy and Socioeconomic Situation Matter?

One key hypothesis that has received considerable attention in recent family discourse is the notion that improvements in women’s socioeconomic circumstances (also called female autonomy) has a positive effect on familial processes and outcomes such as marital instability. Absent from this debate are cross-cultural research that test the applicability of these findings with non-U.S. data. We use representative data from Ghana to explore whether dimensions of women’s autonomy have the hypothesized positive effect on divorce processes in Africa. Consistent with findings from the United States, results from our African data demonstrate that women’s autonomy has a positive effect on divorce. This observation is true not only with the use of conventional autonomy measures such as work and education, but also with regard to institutional measures of autonomy such as matrilineal kinship ties.Baffour K. Takyi, Department of Sociology, Olin 266, The University of Akron, Akron, OH 44325-1905; e- mail: btakyi@uakron.edu.Christopher L. Broughton, Department of Sociology, Olin 266, The University of Akron, Akron, OH 44325-1905; e-mail: Christopher.L.Broughton@cmsdnet.net.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Annual Meeting of the North Central Sociological Society, April 13–16, 2000, Pittsburgh, PA. We are grateful to several anonymous reviewers for their comments on an earlier draft of this paper.