Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the presence of stochastic and subjective uncertainty

Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses for systems that involve both stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty are discussed. In such analyses, the dependent variable is usually a complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF) that arises from stochastic uncertainty; uncertainty analysis involves the determination of a distribution of CCDFs that results from subjective uncertainty, and sensitivity analysis involves the determination of the effects of subjective uncertainty in individual variables on this distribution of CCDFs. Uncertainty analysis is presented as an integration problem involving probability spaces for stochastic and subjective uncertainty. Approximation procedures for the underlying integrals are described that provide an assessment of the effects of stochastic uncertainty, an assessment of the effects of subjective uncertainty, and a basis for performing sensitivity studies. Extensive use is made of Latin hypercube sampling, importance sampling and regression-based sensitivity analysis techniques. The underlying ideas, which are initially presented in an abstract form, are central to the design and performance of real analyses. To emphasize the connection between concept and computational practice, these ideas are illustrated with an analysis involving the MACCS reactor accident consequence model a, performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, and a probabilistic risk assessment for a nuclear power station.     

On the explosion rate of maximum-bias functions

The maxbias function B_T() contains much information about the robustness properties of the estimate T. This function satisfies B_T(0)=0 and B_T()<for all 0<<whereis the breakdown point of T. Hampel (1974)pioneered the study of the limiting behaviour of B_T(?) where ? → 0. He computed and optimized the rate γ at which B_T(?) approaches 0 when ? → 0. This rate is now called the contamination sensitivity of T, and constitutes one of the cornerstones of the theory of robustness. We show that much can also be learned from the study of the limiting behaviour of B_T(?) when ? → ?*. A new robustness measure, called the relative explosion rate, can be obtained by studying the limiting relative maxbias behaviour of two extimates when approaches their common breakdown point ?*. Like the contamination sensitivity, the relative explosion rate can be readily derived from the estimate's score function. General formulae are given for M-estimates of scale and S-, MM- and τ-estimates of regression. We also show that the maxbias behaviour for large ? is largely determined by the curvature of the estimate's score function near zero. This motivates our definition and study of the local order of a score function.     

国际合作中敏感性和脆弱性的关系和规律探究——以中国—东盟经贸数据为量化分析样本

国际经济相互依赖一直都是国际合作领域的重要研究话题。基欧汉和奈通过敏感性和脆弱性两个概念建构了新自由制度主义理论,将相互依赖理论推向了巅峰。然而,此后的学者较少对国际经济相互依赖关系中的敏感性和脆弱性概念进行研究。事实上,敏感性和脆弱性之间是存在一定联系的,通过引入维持成本和退出成本,能够进一步深化对两个概念的理解,进而探索并归纳两个概念的关系和规律。敏感性和脆弱性将共同影响一国的战略决策,并且最终影响双边经济相互依赖关系的发展,这对分析和深入理解中国与东盟的经济相互依赖关系有一定的帮助,也能为双边关系的未来发展带来一定的启示。     

评论附加语的言者指向性和人际意义

功能语法把状语叫做附加语。附加语分为环境附加语、情态附加语和连接附加语。情态附加语又分为语气附加语和评论附加语。评论附加语属于人际附加语,表达人际意义。评论附加语的人际意义是由说话人表达的,属于说话人意义。因此,评论附加语具有明显的言者指向性。评论附加语所表达的人际意义有三种:介入义、认识义和评判义。介入义表达说话人表述命题信息的方式。认识义表达说话人对命题真值确信性程度的判断义或命题信息可靠性程度的言据义。评判义是说话人对命题的整体或命题的主语的判断和评价。这些人际意义均取决于说话人对所述信息的主观态度,因而具有明显的言者主观性。      

中国医疗保险制度隐形债务测算研究——基于西部B市城镇职工基本医疗保险制度的分析

基于医保精算理论,构建医疗保险制度隐性债务的测算模型,并结合西部B市城镇职工基本医疗保险制度进行实证测算。研究表明西部B市城镇职工基本医保的隐性债务规模总体呈现先上升后下降的"倒U型"发展趋势,最终在2080年左右趋于消失。另外医疗费用补偿的增长系数、在职职工工资增长率、无风险利率和养老金增长率对隐性债务的规模具有显著的影响。最后结合测算结果和研究结论,从医保制度完善、开源路径和节流路径三方面提出化解隐性债务规模的政策建议框架。     

孔子与老子的人际关系思想比较及其现代意义

详细叙述了孔子的人际关系思想以及老子的人际关系思想并试图从孔子与老子的人际关系思想的比较中给现代人际关系的处理一些启发.     

Does the supplemental nutrition assistance program really increase obesity? The importance of accounting for misclassification errors

The prevalence of obesity among US citizens has grown rapidly over the last few decades, especially among low-income individuals. This has led to questions about the effectiveness of nutritional assistance programs such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Previous results on the effect of SNAP participation on obesity are mixed. These findings are however based on the assumption that participation status can be accurately observed, despite significant misclassification errors reported in the literature. Using propensity score matching, we conclude that there seems to be a positive effect of SNAP participation on obesity rates for female participants and no such effect for males, a result that is consistent with several previous studies. However, an extensive sensitivity analysis reveals that the positive effect for females is sensitive to misclassification errors and to the conditional independence assumption. Thus analogous findings should also be used with caution unless examined under the prism of classification errors and of other assumptions used for the identification of causal parameters.     

口述历史语篇的多维度分析

在与日常谈话、学术论文语篇对比的基础上,对口述历史语篇的多维度分析表明,可以提取的基本维度有四个,即“人际互动与资讯传递”“个人情感的表达与对事实的客观陈述”“口语体与书面语体”“事件重构与论证阐释”。研究表明,口述历史语篇倾向于人际互动;它重在对事实的客观陈述;它是准备程度较高、经过编辑加工的言语成品,具有书面语体的倾向;它重在重构历史事件,具有叙事性。上述特征是由口述历史语篇的交际方式、交际目的以及生成环境决定的。     

基于生态网络视角下的绩溪县基本生态控制线划定研究

将AHP模型与GIS技术相结合,基于绩溪县域的土地利用现状及生态要素等数据,采用耦合生态敏感性评价和构建生态安全格局的方法将绩溪县基本生态控制线划分为生态底线保护区和生态缓冲区,同时从构建生态网络结构、明确存量建设要求、统一明晰管控边界、加强考核保障体系四个方面提出管控策略,以此保障基本生态控制线的落实。     

多级供应链系统成本分析随机网络模型及算法研究

供应链成本管理是企业战略管理的核心组成部分。为研究多级供应链网络系统的成本组成及其分布特征、分析各节点企业的成本管理对多级供应链网络系统的影响、找到供应链系统成本管理中的薄弱环节和关键企业,本文构建了多级供应链系统成本的随机网络分析模型。首先研究了模型的结构性质特征,给出成本分布特征的解析算法。然后扩展模型,分别从系统成本类型构成(生产成本、库存成本和物流成本)和系统对企业成本波动的灵敏度两个角度深入研究多级供应链网络成本问题。数值算例分析结果说明了多级供应链网络系统成本分析模型和相关算法的有效性和实用性。