Bayesian System Reliability Prediction

In system reliability studies a common problem is the coherent assessment of system reliability, based on generic database information from components and on failure data from a system and its components in a common, but unknown, environment. A solution to this problem is given.     

“四在农家”与贵州省社会主义新农村建设长效机制研究——以黔北地区旺草镇“四在农家”创建活动为实证分析个案

源于贵州省黔北地区的"富、学、乐、美""四在农家"创建活动,是西部欠发达、欠开发落后省区农民群众为改变家乡面貌、提高生活质量在实践中创造的新农村建设的一种模式,这一模式充分体现了党中央、国务院提出的"生产发展、生活宽裕、乡风文明、村容整洁、管理民主"建设社会主义新农村的美好设想。本文是课题组在实地观察、访谈、问卷调查的基础上,以黔北地区旺草镇"四在农家"创建活动为实证分析个案,探索"贵州省乃至西部欠发达、欠开发地区社会主义新农村建设的长效机制"研究报告的一部分。     

经营管理工作性质的制度分析

:企业经营管理工作的性质是现代经济理论和管理理论的核心范畴。经营管理工作性质及其运作的机制客观上将表现为经营管理工作的职责、管理行为、管理制度 ,以产权制度为核心的企业制度等相对稳定的制度因素。对经营管理工作性质研究的突破点在于实现从传统的非契约分析方式向制度分析和契约分析的方向演进     

Conservatism of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program HRA Procedure

This paper presents a limited assessment of the conservatism of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program (ASEP) human reliability analysis (HRA) procedure described in NUREG/CR-4772. The data for this study are derived from simulator examination reports from the NRC requalification examination cycle for nuclear power plant operators. The ASEP procedure was used to estimate human error probability (HEP) values for critical tasks, and the HEP results were compared with the failure rates observed in the examinations. The ASEP procedure was applied by PNNL operator license examiners who supplemented the limited information in the examination reports with expert judgment based upon their extensive simulator examination experience. Comparison of the average of the ASEP HEP values with the fraction of the population actually failed and demonstrated that the ASEP HEP values are larger (conservative) by a statistically significant average factor of two. Partitioning of tasks into subgroups based on the ASEP HEP values and comparison of the subgroup average ASEP HEP values with observed subgroup failure rates showed little or no conservatism for small ASEP HEP values, but considerable conservatism for larger ASEP HEP values.     

递归函数中的 Cache

由于 FFP 表达式具有引用透明性,对于给定的表达式每次计算都得到同样的结果,所以每一个值只需计算一次.然而,由于 FFP 语言支持递归程序,FC-机在处理递归结点时需要拷贝代码,运行时很难检查共享计算,因此可能导致重复计算,为此人们提出了用“记忆函数”(memo function)来解决这一问题.本文主要介绍如何在 FC-机中,利用 Cache 来实现“记忆函数”。最后给出了性能分析和在FFP 系统上的实际测试结果。     

复变函数对中学数学教学的指导作用

本文阐述了复变函数对中学教学的指导作用,并给出了代数基本定理的一个新证明。     

Decision settings analysis – a tool for analysis and design of human activity systems

The paper describes a methodology to be used for analysis and design of human activity systems. The methodology is based on an analysis of the decision settings whereas most other decision analysis methodologies are analysing the process. The decision concept is analysed and discussed. A distinction between programmed and programmable as well as non-programmed and non-programmable decisions is proposed. A classification of different information types for decision making is presented. A methodology based on a systemic and systematic analysis of the information requirements of an organization is proposed. This methodology also indicates organizational discrepancies and information imbalances. The methodology focuses the settings of the decisions on all levels of organizations. The methodology can be regarded as a dynamic, learning system. The author proposes further research on the individuals decision making abilities.     

高职院校学风状况分析及对策

学风建设是高职院校建设的重要一环。由于受学生自身原因、学校管理、教学诸要素的影响,当前高职院校学风不是很好,存在逃课、晚自习效果不理想、厌学心理加剧等问题。各高职院校应从开展学生心理疏导,完善学校管理、提高教师教学质量等方面入手,加强各自学校的学风建设。     

居家式社区养老服务模式研究——以莫慧市为例

本文对家庭、社区和政府在老人照顾方面的角色和功能进行理论分析，结合笔者生活的城市社区养老服务的现状，提出社区养老服务的对策建议。     

城市社会的时间地理学研究

时间地理学是结合地理学与社会学的研究方法则一种从各种时空制约条件下人的行为研究入手，以全新的视角来解释人地关系的方法，作者在概括地介绍时间地理学的产生背景及方法特色的基础上，重点说明了城市社会研究中时间地理学方法的应用状况，并展望了未来的研究方向。