Bayes shrinkage estimator for consistency assessment of treatment effects in multi-regional clinical trials

The primary objective of a multi-regional clinical trial is to investigate the overall efficacy of the drug across regions and evaluate the possibility of applying the overall trial result to some specific region. A challenge arises when there is not enough regional sample size. We focus on the problem of evaluating applicability of a drug to a specific region of interest under the criterion of preserving a certain proportion of the overall treatment effect in the region. We propose a variant of James-Stein shrinkage estimator in the empirical Bayes context for the region-specific treatment effect. The estimator has the features of accommodating the between-region variation and finiteness correction of bias. We also propose a truncated version of the proposed shrinkage estimator to further protect risk in the presence of extreme value of regional treatment effect. Based on the proposed estimator, we provide the consistency assessment criterion and sample size calculation for the region of interest. Simulations are conducted to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimators in comparison with some existing methods. A hypothetical example is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed method.     

“Empowerment” as efficiency and participation: gender in responsible agricultural investment principles

Amidst global concern over the state of transnational large-scale agricultural investments, several efforts have been made to set global standards for “responsible agricultural investment.” While these efforts have received mixed reviews from the international community, very little attention has been paid to the gendered language of these principles. Through examining two separate sets of agricultural investment principles – one created by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, the International Fund for Agricultural Development and the World Bank, and the other by the United Nations Committee on World Food Security – this article finds that, despite different processes and participants in the creation of these principles, they nonetheless share a language of “empowerment” targeted at women and marginalized groups. However, in contrast to early feminist discourses of empowerment, these principles instead perpetuate the notion that empowerment is to be found through efficiency, productivity and participation in land and labor markets. This article takes a critical look at this language of economic empowerment in each set of principles, and points to the dangers of equating efficiency, productivity and participation with feminist empowerment. By not acknowledging the broader gender dynamics of agricultural governance and markets, these discourses risk deepening existing inequalities rather than moving toward meaningful social change.     

社会主义生态文明建设的重要内容: 生态消费模式

当前，我国消费伴随着经济的快速发展日益被异化为“病态式消费”模式，这使得国民经济的协调发展遭到了严重破坏，甚至生态系统也面临着崩溃的危险。我国新富群体缺乏正确的消费观念，加上西方消费主义影响，引发了诸多的社会问题。实践证明，只有树立正确的消费观念、克制消费欲望、调整消费行为，才能建立生态消费模式，才能符合社会主义生态文明的要求，实现人与自然的协调发展。     

对耕地利用率影响因素及影响效应的统计分析

耕地承包农户的户主年龄、家庭非农收入、土地转让行为选择、农户择业意愿、耕地条件与环境等因素与耕地利用率之间存在显著相关。对此，政府首先必须加强对农民的重农教育，增强农民珍爱耕地的自觉性；其次，应创新耕地管理制度，引导土地合理流转；其三，推进农村土地流转规范，提升耕地资产价值效能；其四，加大支农惠农政策力度，提高农业比较收益；其五，扩大对农村投入，改善农村农业基础设施建设。     

Comparing diagnostic tests: test of hypothesis for likelihood ratios

Likelihood ratios (LRs) are used to characterize the efficiency of diagnostic tests. In this paper, we use the classical weighted least squares (CWLS) test procedure, which was originally used for testing the homogeneity of relative risks, for comparing the LRs of two or more binary diagnostic tests. We compare the performance of this method with the relative diagnostic likelihood ratio (rDLR) method and the diagnostic likelihood ratio regression (DLRReg) approach in terms of size and power, and we observe that the performances of CWLS and rDLR are the same when used to compare two diagnostic tests, while DLRReg method has higher type I error rates and powers. We also examine the performances of the CWLS and DLRReg methods for comparing three diagnostic tests in various sample size and prevalence combinations. On the basis of Monte Carlo simulations, we conclude that all of the tests are generally conservative and have low power, especially in settings of small sample size and low prevalence.     

江苏省宿迁市耕地生态足迹初探

运用生态足迹模型和相关统计年鉴数据，计算了宿迁市2006年的耕地生态足迹。结果表明：2006年宿迁市耕地生态足迹为0.73332hm2/人，而耕地生态承载力为0.38504hm2/人，生态赤字为0.34828hm2/人，这说明宿迁市的耕地利用已经超出了生态承载力的范围，处于不可持续发展的状态。     

An Integrated Risk Assessment Model of Township‐Scaled Land Subsidence Based on an Evidential Reasoning Algorithm and Fuzzy Set Theory

Land subsidence risk assessment (LSRA) is a multi‐attribute decision analysis (MADA) problem and is often characterized by both quantitative and qualitative attributes with various types of uncertainty. Therefore, the problem needs to be modeled and analyzed using methods that can handle uncertainty. In this article, we propose an integrated assessment model based on the evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm and fuzzy set theory. The assessment model is structured as a hierarchical framework that regards land subsidence risk as a composite of two key factors: hazard and vulnerability. These factors can be described by a set of basic indicators defined by assessment grades with attributes for transforming both numerical data and subjective judgments into a belief structure. The factor‐level attributes of hazard and vulnerability are combined using the ER algorithm, which is based on the information from a belief structure calculated by the Dempster‐Shafer (D‐S) theory, and a distributed fuzzy belief structure calculated by fuzzy set theory. The results from the combined algorithms yield distributed assessment grade matrices. The application of the model to the Xixi‐Chengnan area, China, illustrates its usefulness and validity for LSRA. The model utilizes a combination of all types of evidence, including all assessment information—quantitative or qualitative, complete or incomplete, and precise or imprecise—to provide assessment grades that define risk assessment on the basis of hazard and vulnerability. The results will enable risk managers to apply different risk prevention measures and mitigation planning based on the calculated risk states.     

新民居建设中土地整理利用现状调查分析

土地整理和利用是新民居建设中的重要工作点,对新民居建设以及社会主义新农村建设的深入推进具有重要影响。通过对河北省廊坊市新民居建设中土地整理利用工作开展调查,分析当前现状及存在问题,探讨如何合理规划利用土地,切实推进新民居建设。     

马克思主义人学理论的动态历史考察

马克思主义人学思想是一个非常完整、科学的理论体系,其形成和发展主要经历了三个发展阶段:从博士论文到《1844年经济学哲学手稿》是其萌芽时期,提出了以劳动为基础的人学理论框架;从《神圣家族》到《共产党宣言》是其基本形成和发展时期,确立了人学理论的唯物主义立场;从《共产党宣言》到《资本论》是其成熟和完善时期,形成了以人的自由全面发展为最终归宿的完备人学理论体系。马克思主义人学在唯物史观的基础上实现了对以往人学理论的超越,为人和社会的发展开辟了广阔的前景。     

土地征收进程中不同参与主体行为研究

城镇化进程中农民集体所有土地转变为城市国有土地,在该过程中产生大量的土地增值收益。地方政府、用地企业、村委会和农民在土地增值收益分配中有不同的行为表现,其根本原因在于利益分配冲突。从不同主体行为角度对土地增值收益分配中利益冲突问题进行研究,有利于探讨利益冲突背后的原因并提出有针对性的政策建议。