试论时期总和生育率、终身生育率与政策生育率的关系

通过对总和生育率(TFR)、终身生育率(CFR)与政策生育率(PFR)的概念及相关数据分析,论证总和生育率与政策生育率是完全不同的概念,不可直接比较。在特定条件下TFR、CFR和政策生育率会产生差异,在一个国家生育水平下降的历史时期,TFR必然小于当年49岁组女性的CFR;"超生率"、"未婚率"、"未育率"和"不孕率"的变化,决定了政策生育率与终身生育率的差异。借鉴日本经济与人口发展相关数据,可以相信由平均初婚年龄推迟、女性有偶率下降导致的生育水平下降很可能成为对我国人口均衡发展的最大潜在威胁。因此,当前以及今后相当的时期内,我国的政策生育率应高于1.8。     

“长吉图”地区流动人口公共服务均等化研究

吉林省人口计生委和吉林大学成立联合课题组,在长春市、吉林市、延边州三地进行"长吉图开发开放先导区流入人口信息采集调查"。该调查对长吉图开发开放先导区流动人口的就业状况、收入与支出状况、计生服务需求状况、参与社会保险状况、生活状况以及子女在流入地受教育状况进行了研究。对调查数据进行二元Logit回归分析,结果显示,性别和年龄因素对就业影响较大。在此基础上,对长吉图开发开放先导区流动人口管理与服务所面临的困难和问题提出对策。     

A lack-of-fit test for parametric zero-inflated Poisson models

Count data often contain many zeros. In parametric regression analysis of zero-inflated count data, the effect of a covariate of interest is typically modelled via a linear predictor. This approach imposes a restrictive, and potentially questionable, functional form on the relation between the independent and dependent variables. To address the noted restrictions, a flexible parametric procedure is employed to model the covariate effect as a linear combination of fixed-knot cubic basis splines or B-splines. The semiparametric zero-inflated Poisson regression model is fitted by maximizing the likelihood function through an expectation–maximization algorithm. The smooth estimate of the functional form of the covariate effect can enhance modelling flexibility. Within this modelling framework, a log-likelihood ratio test is used to assess the adequacy of the covariate function. Simulation results show that the proposed test has excellent power in detecting the lack of fit of a linear predictor. A real-life data set is used to illustrate the practicality of the methodology.     

应用全面创新管理提高中小型企业创新能力研究

在全球抗争危机中创新型企业(包括中小型企业)表现出了其独赋的优势,而中小型企业在其转型和升级中也需要借助全面创新管理提升其创新能力.本文首先探讨了什么是创新型企业;继而讨论了如何走向创新型企业及其三个阶段:"二次创新--组合创新--全面创新";紧接着对全面创新管理的内涵、特征做了较详讨论.然后对本专辑的论文安排结构作了简要介绍.     

全员创新提升创新能力研究

基于对国内外全员创新实践的回顾以及前人的研究,本文提出了支撑全员创新的全要素创新的概念模型,并通过大样本问卷分析,揭示了全员创新实施所缺失的创新要素:创新文化、信息系统和组织结构扁平化.针对这三种创新要素的缺失,本文提出了相应的对策,同时,结合国内外大企业全员创新的成功经验,提出了中小企业实施全员创新的参考性建议.     

Does age affect the efficacy and safety of GreenLight HPS™ laser photoselective vaporization prostatectomy?

Background: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of GreenLight HPS^? (High Performance System) laser photoselective vaporization prostatectomy (PVP) for the treatment of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) in patients of different age groups. Methods: 164 consecutive patients were stratified into two groups: age <70 (group I, n?=?93) and age ≥70 (group II, n?=?71) years. Transurethral PVP was performed using a GreenLight HPS? side-firing laser system. Voiding parameters were measured preoperatively and at 1 and 4 weeks and 3, 6, 12, 18, 24 and 36 months postoperatively. Results: Among the preoperative parameters evaluated, there were significant differences (p?<?0.05) in prostate volume (I: 58.7; II: 73.6?mL) and serum prostate-specific antigen (I: 1.9; II: 2.9?ng/mL), while American Urological Association Symptom Score (AUASS), Quality of Life (QoL), maximum flow rate (Qmax), Sexual Health Inventory for Men (SHIM) and post void residual (PVR) were similar (p?>?0.05) between groups. No significant differences in laser utilization, energy usage and operating time were noted. Clinical outcomes (AUASS, QoL, Qmax, PVR) showed immediate and stable improvement from baseline (p?<?0.05) within each group, but no significant differences between the two groups were observed during the follow-up period. The incidence of adverse events was low and similar in both groups. Conclusions: The results suggest that age has little effect on the efficacy and safety of GreenLight HPS? laser PVP.     

Efficiency Bounds for Missing Data Models With Semiparametric Restrictions

This paper shows that the semiparametric efficiency bound for a parameter identified by an unconditional moment restriction with data missing at random (MAR) coincides with that of a particular augmented moment condition problem. The augmented system consists of the inverse probability weighted (IPW) original moment restriction and an additional conditional moment restriction which exhausts all other implications of the MAR assumption. The paper also investigates the value of additional semiparametric restrictions on the conditional expectation function (CEF) of the original moment function given always observed covariates. In the program evaluation context, for example, such restrictions are implied by semiparametric models for the potential outcome CEFs given baseline covariates. The efficiency bound associated with this model is shown to also coincide with that of a particular moment condition problem. Some implications of these results for estimation are briefly discussed.     

司法化:中国刑事诉讼修改的当下与未来走向

1979年以来,中国刑事诉讼立法的发展贯穿了一条主线——程序司法化。此次《刑事诉讼法修正案(草案)》在改变单方、双方结构,建立并完善三方结构方面做出了努力,进一步增强了刑事诉讼诸阶段的司法化要素。但应当看到,当下的程序司法化努力还主要局限在审判阶段(尤其是一审)的实体性裁判方面,公安机关、检察机关所实施的涉及公民基本权利的诉讼行为,大都仍未纳入司法化的范围。未来的改革应立足中国司法实际,坚决而渐进地推进程序的司法化。     

子代情感支持选择对农村老年妇女主观幸福感的影响——基于安徽省的问卷调查分析

根据2011年“安徽省老年妇女养老问题农村地区调查”数据,应用Logistic回归方法,对农村地区老年妇女在情感支持方面不同子代角色的选择对其主观幸福感的影响进行了分析研究.研究结果显示:在情感支持方面选择儿媳和女儿的农村老年妇女主观幸福感发生比较高,选择儿子和女婿的则对其主观幸福感有负面影响.     

“指事”新说

“指事”定义“视而可识,察而见意”中的“识”历来被理解为“认识”,造成定义语义重复,分野不明确,分类也颇多分歧。“识”当作“分别、分辨”讲,“视而可识”是说可以从形体上将一组关系字分别开来,“察而见意”是说仔细观察就可以看出字的意义指向。这样理解,指事字的范围和分类都比较明确。