Limited information bayesian analysis of a structural coefficient in a simultaneous equations system

An analytical expression is obtained for the marginal posterior density for a structural coefficient in a simultaneous equations system based on a limited information Bayesian analysis. A con- ditional posterior density is obtained given reduced form para- meters. This conditional posterior density is in univariate student t form. Numerical examples suggest that the conditional density hasa tighter distribution around the posterior mean than the unconditional density when the correlation between the endo- genous variables and the structural error term is high.     

Chapter 4: Research on the Integration of Employee Assistance,Work-Life and Wellness Services

SUMMARY

This article will focus on the research exploring the degree to which organizational integration of Employee Assistance, Work/Family and Wellness Programs has evolved since the early 1990s. The first study reviewed is the National Study of EAP and Work/Family Programs conducted in 1994 by Boston University's Center on Work and Family in which 100 of the top family friendly companies were inter viewed. Two major studies conducted under the guidance of the Employee Assistance Professional Association (EAPA) are then reviewed. The Phase I research conducted in 2001 was a large-scale survey of the professionals in fields of EAP and Work-life (N = 950). The Phase II research conducted in 2002 was comprised of two stages: A pilot study surveying vendors in the EAP and Work-life fields (N = 213) and a qualitative study consisting of in-depth interviews with vendors from all three professions (N = 79). The overall theme from this body of research is one of dramatically increasing movement and market demand for some form of collaboration/integration of service delivery. Finally, the chapter offers recommendations for further research regarding integration of services as well as implications for the professional fields.     

Machine learning for multi-criteria inventory classification applied to intermittent demand

Multi-criteria inventory classification groups inventory items into classes, each of which is managed by a specific re-order policy according to its priority. However, the tasks of inventory classification and control are not carried out jointly if the classification criteria and the classification approach are not robustly established from an inventory-cost perspective. Exhaustive simulations at the single item level of the inventory system would directly solve this issue by searching for the best re-order policy per item, thus achieving the subsequent optimal classification without resorting to any multi-criteria classification method. However, this would be very time-consuming in real settings, where a large number of items need to be managed simultaneously.

In this article, a reduction in simulation effort is achieved by extracting from the population of items a sample on which to perform an exhaustive search of best re-order policies per item; the lowest cost classification of in-sample items is, therefore, achieved. Then, in line with the increasing need for ICT tools in the production management of Industry 4.0 systems, supervised classifiers from the machine learning research field (i.e. support vector machines with a Gaussian kernel and deep neural networks) are trained on these in-sample items to learn to classify the out-of-sample items solely based on the values they show on the features (i.e. classification criteria). The inventory system adopted here is suitable for intermittent demands, but it may also suit non-intermittent demands, thus providing great flexibility. The experimental analysis of two large datasets showed an excellent accuracy, which suggests that machine learning classifiers could be implemented in advanced inventory classification systems.     

Modeling the demand reduction input-output (I-O) inoperability due to terrorism of interconnected infrastructures.

Interdependency analysis in the context of this article is a process of assessing and managing risks inherent in a system of interconnected entities (e.g., infrastructures or industry sectors). Invoking the principles of input-output (I-O) and decomposition analysis, the article offers a framework for describing how terrorism-induced perturbations can propagate due to interconnectedness. Data published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis Division of the U.S. Department of Commerce is utilized to present applications to serve as test beds for the proposed framework. Specifically, a case study estimating the economic impact of airline demand perturbations to national-level U.S. sectors is made possible using I-O matrices. A ranking of the affected sectors according to their vulnerability to perturbations originating from a primary sector (e.g., air transportation) can serve as important input to risk management. For example, limited resources can be prioritized for the "top-n" sectors that are perceived to suffer the greatest economic losses due to terrorism. In addition, regional decomposition via location quotients enables the analysis of local-level terrorism events. The Regional I-O Multiplier System II (RIMS II) Division of the U.S. Department of Commerce is the agency responsible for releasing the regional multipliers for various geographical resolutions (economic areas, states, and counties). A regional-level case study demonstrates a process of estimating the economic impact of transportation-related scenarios on industry sectors within Economic Area 010 (the New York metropolitan region and vicinities).     

论"有限政府"的"有限"内涵

随着我国行政体制改革和政府职能转变的不断深入,"有限政府"这一行政价值取向已为人们所认同.文章从政府作为主客体两方面对"有限"内涵给予论述.     

浅谈书籍设计的人性化

“人性化设计”已成为 2 1世纪设计的主题。书籍设计作为视觉传达的重要门类也将遵循以人为本的理念。通过书籍封面、插图、版式、文字、材料等元素用设计语言概括书的本质 ,形象地反映书的知识要义和思想精髓 ,强调理性的秩序 ,准确传达知识和思想 ,使之理性的内涵和感性的外延相结合 ,成为读者获取知识、陶冶情操的桥梁     

陈骙《文则》的修辞研究方法举隅

陈马癸《文则》考察修辞现象的方法至今仍有意义。着眼于汉语修辞学史 ,从“假之以渔”,而不是“假之以鱼”的角度 ,可发现《文则》中蕴含着素朴的辩证综合法、直观分析法、有限演绎法 ,实在难能可贵 ,值得今人批判地继承     

论文化产品与“政府文化需求”

文章试图用经济学原理,以"需求"为基本范畴,分析社会文化产品生产、流通、消费的基本规律,揭示文化产品的价值和使用价值相统一的商品属性.文中特别提出了文化产品"政府消费"的概念,意在解决"公益文化"的市场定位问题,并为转变文化行政部门职能、改革现有文化事业单位体制、创新政府文化投入的拨款方式提供一定的理论依据.     

鸦片战争前清政府对外政策的嬗变——以海关贸易为例

“闭关”是人们对鸦片战争前清政府对外政策约定俗成的界定。揆之于史实,有诸多不切合之处。此段历史,若依清政府海关贸易的嬗递为主线,可划分为“顺其自然”、政策上的“锁国”、“全面开放”及“限关”四个时期,与所谓的“闭关”论出入甚多。任何主权国家都有权依据国情制定自己的对外贸易政策,英人笼统的“限关”论有洗涮罪恶的鸦片贸易之嫌,国人的“闭关”论则是以感情代替史实。我们应以此为鉴,尊重历史,慎作结论。     

大学生现状对思想政治工作者的素质要求

调查表明,大学生现状发生了一系列变化,表现在:知识需求的多向度;价值取向的多元性;社会观念心理因素在愿 望与玩笑之间的差距、矛盾;问题分析能力存在肤浅、片面性;一般来说都怀有较高的政治热情。这些变化要求高校思想政治工 作者加强磨炼过硬的政治素质,高尚的思想道德素质、深厚的知识素质,较强的能力素质。